Mesoscale Discussion 1245

Issued

Jul 10, 2021, 5:27 PM CDT (22:27 UTC)

Expired

Jul 10, 2021, 7:30 PM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 366

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

391 
ACUS11 KWNS 102227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102227 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-110030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0527 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas and Northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366...

Valid 102227Z - 110030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366
continues.

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms along the Missouri River will
continue southeast into a slightly more favorable environment for
damaging wind gusts and perhaps large hail. Local extensions in area
of WW 366 may be needed.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of thunderstorm complexes overnight
yesterday into this morning, airmass recovery has continued this
afternoon in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Temperatures have
risen in the low to mid 80s F, which is slightly higher than
RAP/HRRR forecast guidance has shown. As such MLCAPE may a bit
higher in some locations than the objectively analyzed 2000-2500
J/kg. As the line of convection continues to the southeast, the
environment will be more supportive of damaging wind gusts as well
as large hail. A few storms have tried to develop ahead of the line
and these more discrete storms would pose the greatest large hail
risk. Storms should be maintained with forcing from the mid-level
shortwave and associated deep-layer shear. With storms nearing the
edge of WW 366, local extensions in area may be needed to address
the continue threat for severe storms this afternoon into the early
evening.

..Wendt.. 07/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39699687 39909665 40459524 40519421 40209349 39499341
            38949385 38719480 38649549 38809617 38889642 39129668
            39699687

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.