Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1236
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 10, 2021, 11:37 AM CDT for 8 counties in Arkansas; 15 counties in Missouri; Adair County, Delaware County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 83 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 10, 2021, 11:37 AM CDT (16:37 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 10, 2021, 1:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 83 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch possible
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 25 counties
Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Newton County, AR, Washington County, AR, Barry County, MO, Christian County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Howell County, MO, Laclede County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO, Adair County, OK, Delaware County, OK
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 4.6 hours before the alert went out and 44 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 917 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -52 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 703 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 113 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 125 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.4
- Supercell composite
- 1.8
The text
As transmitted.
623
ACUS11 KWNS 101637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101637
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-101800-
Mesoscale Discussion 1236
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021
Areas affected...extreme northeast Oklahoma...southern
Missouri...and northwest Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 101637Z - 101800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing across northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. Hail and gusty winds will be possible in the
near term. Longer-term severe potential with these storms is more
uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have developed rapidly across
Deleware County, OK, this morning in response to warm-air advection
in the 850-700 millibar layer and weak large-scale ascent associated
with a small short-wave trough moving through the larger wavelength
trough upstream. Lapse rates around 8 C/km in the 500-700 millibar
layer have contributed to most-unstable CAPE of up to 2000 J/kg,
with deep-layer shear between 35-40 knots. Despite these lapse
rates, a freezing level around 600 millibars should limit the
potential for large hail in the short-term. Thus, gusty thunderstorm
outflows and small hail will be the primary near-term threats.
Current thinking is that these storms will weaken early this
afternoon as warm-air advection weakens. However, if the
thunderstorms can transition to more surface-based over the next
couple of hours, the likelihood of them persisting will increase.
Thus the need for any potential watch through early afternoon is
uncertain. Conditions will be monitored.
..Marsh/Bunting.. 07/10/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 36169497 36579493 36929452 36999379 37159316 37499291
37789279 37949208 37769155 37119138 36449184 36199221
35599361 35649433 35779465 36169497SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 2:17 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Washington | 118 min |
| Jul 10, 3:02 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin and 11 more | 8 hr |
| Jul 9, 7:08 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clark, Scotland | 3 hr |
| Jul 9, 7:54 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Audrain, Chariton, Clark, Grundy, Knox and 18 more | 36 min |
| Jul 9, 8:18 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adair, Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Carroll, Chariton and 32 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 9, 9:12 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Caldwell, Clay, Clinton and 8 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 9, 9:58 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll, Chariton and 22 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 9, 10:26 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Chariton, Cole and 21 more | 64 min |
| Jul 10, 1:01 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bollinger, Boone, Callaway, Cape Girardeau, Chariton, Cole and 23 more | 59 min |
| Jul 10, 1:21 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Caldwell, Clay, Clinton and 11 more | 84 min |
| Jul 10, 1:36 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Perry, Ripley and 3 more | 4 hr |
| Jul 10, 2:57 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bates, Caldwell, Carroll, Cass, Chariton, Clay and 20 more | 93 min |
| Jul 10, 3:09 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Perry, Ripley and 3 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 10, 5:04 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Carter, Ripley, Stoddard | 56 min |
| Jul 10, 1:20 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Holt, Nodaway | 115 min |
| Jul 10, 1:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bollinger, Butler, Camden, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Cedar and 34 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 10, 2:01 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford, Franklin and 16 more | 8 hr |
| Jul 10, 2:18 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Clay, Clinton, DeKalb and 6 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 10, 3:44 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Holt | 91 min |
| Jul 10, 5:27 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll, Clay, Clinton and 13 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 10, 5:29 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche and 19 more | 7 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.