Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1219
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 9, 2021, 7:54 PM CDT for 15 counties in Illinois; 24 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 36 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 9, 2021, 7:54 PM CDT (00:54 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 9, 2021, 8:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 36 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch needed soon
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 39 counties
Adams County, IL, Brown County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Cass County, IL, Greene County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Menard County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Pike County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Adair County, MO, Audrain County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clark County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Knox County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Marion County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Pike County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Scotland County, MO, Shelby County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Warren County, MO
The radar
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 139 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 0.9 hours before the alert went out and 234 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1111 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 50 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 19 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 114 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.0
The text
As transmitted.
150
ACUS11 KWNS 100054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100054
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-100130-
Mesoscale Discussion 1219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021
Areas affected...northern into east-central MO...west-central IL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon
Valid 100054Z - 100130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued for
much of the area in the short term.
DISCUSSION...An intense supercell over the past hour has moved from
southeast IA into west-central IL and is near the edge of severe
thunderstorm watch 358. The risk for large hail will likely extend
southeastward into west-central IL over the next few hours as the
ongoing activity and additional storms form this evening. It is
uncertain whether surface-based thunderstorm development will occur
farther west over northern MO in a very unstable airmass (3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE per the Springfield, MO and Topeka, KS 00z raobs). If storms
develop, the risk for large to very large hail and severe gusts will
correspondingly increase.
..Smith/Thompson.. 07/10/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...
LAT...LON 40589273 40309050 40048971 39008935 38628996 38749126
39179238 39749397 40279387 40589273SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 7:08 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Hancock, Henderson, McDonough, Warren | 3 hr |
| Jul 9, 8:18 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adams, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Greene, Jersey and 9 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 9, 10:26 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Greene, Jersey and 7 more | 64 min |
| Jul 10, 1:01 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clinton, Jackson, Monroe, Perry, Randolph, Saint Clair and 3 more | 59 min |
| Jul 10, 1:36 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alexander, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Jackson and 10 more | 4 hr |
| Jul 10, 3:09 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alexander, Franklin, Jackson, Johnson, Pulaski, Saline and 2 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 10, 1:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alexander, Clay, Clinton, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin and 22 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 10, 2:01 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alexander, Bond, Clay, Clinton, Crawford, Edwards and 28 more | 8 hr |
| Jul 10, 3:09 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cass, Champaign, DeWitt, Douglas, Ford, Logan and 8 more | 96 min |
| Jul 10, 5:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin and 10 more | 87 min |
| Jul 9, 9:12 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Caldwell, Clay, Clinton and 8 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 9, 9:58 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll, Chariton and 22 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 10, 1:21 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Caldwell, Clay, Clinton and 11 more | 84 min |
| Jul 10, 2:57 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bates, Caldwell, Carroll, Cass, Chariton, Clay and 20 more | 93 min |
| Jul 10, 5:04 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Carter, Ripley, Stoddard | 56 min |
| Jul 10, 11:37 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Christian, Douglas, Howell, Laclede, McDonald and 9 more | 83 min |
| Jul 10, 1:20 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Holt, Nodaway | 115 min |
| Jul 10, 2:17 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Barton, Jasper, McDonald, Newton, Vernon | 118 min |
| Jul 10, 2:18 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Clay, Clinton, DeKalb and 6 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 10, 3:02 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barry, Barton, Camden, Cedar, Christian, Dade and 26 more | 8 hr |
| Jul 10, 3:44 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Holt | 91 min |
| Jul 10, 5:27 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll, Clay, Clinton and 13 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.