Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1230

July 10, 20218 counties in Kansas; 17 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 10, 2021, 1:21 AM CDT for 8 counties in Kansas; 17 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 84 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 10, 2021, 1:21 AM CDT (06:21 UTC)
Expired
Jul 10, 2021, 2:45 AM CDT
In force
84 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 363
All 25 counties

Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Ray County, MO, Worth County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 96 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2021-07-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2790 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2021-07-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 45 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2790 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-39 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1645 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
45 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
132 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.4
Supercell composite
6.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

977 
ACUS11 KWNS 100622
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100621 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-100745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1230
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Areas affected...far southeastern Nebraska/northwestern
Missouri/northeastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363...

Valid 100621Z - 100745Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363
continues.

SUMMARY...A local increase in damaging wind risk is apparent across
northeastern Kansas/northwestern Missouri.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a north-south cluster of storms
moving across southeastern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas, with a
more southwest-to-northeast extension of the band into southwestern
Iowa.  Latest radar loop shows a rapid southward surge of this Iowa
convection toward/into northwestern Missouri, at speeds in excess of
70 kt.  WIth a very unstable airmass in advance of this convection
(mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg per RUC-based objective
analysis), and low-level ascent maximized due to warm advection
associated with the west-southwesterly low-level jet, expect this
convection to persist, spreading into the Topeka and Kansas City
metro areas over the next hour to hour and a half.  Damaging winds
-- possibly in excess of 70 MPH locally, may occur.

..Goss.. 07/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   40499544 40719465 40209355 39389369 38989429 38979507
            38969626 39189638 39969580 40499544

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 9, 8:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCJewell, Mitchell, Osborne, Phillips, Rooks, Smith8 hr
Jul 9, 8:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGove, Greeley, Hamilton, Kearny, Lane, Logan and 4 more86 min
Jul 9, 9:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Jackson and 9 more2 hr
Jul 9, 9:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCFinney, Gove, Greeley, Hamilton, Kearny, Lane and 8 more4 hr
Jul 9, 9:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Atchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Coffey and 22 more7 hr
Jul 9, 11:39 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFinney, Grant, Gray, Greeley, Hamilton, Kearny and 4 more66 min
Jul 10, 1:10 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEdwards, Finney, Ford, Grant, Gray, Hamilton and 10 more65 min
Jul 10, 2:57 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Clay, Cloud, Coffey, Dickinson, Douglas and 16 more93 min
Jul 10, 1:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Marshall, Nemaha, Washington115 min
Jul 10, 2:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Bourbon, Butler, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley and 11 more118 min
Jul 10, 2:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Douglas, Geary, Jackson and 10 more7 hr
Jul 10, 3:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, Bourbon, Butler, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley and 9 more8 hr
Jul 10, 5:27 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Douglas, Jackson, Jefferson and 9 more2 hr
Jul 9, 7:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClark, Scotland3 hr
Jul 9, 7:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Audrain, Chariton, Clark, Grundy, Knox and 18 more36 min
Jul 9, 8:18 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Carroll, Chariton and 32 more6 hr
Jul 9, 10:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Chariton, Cole and 21 more64 min
Jul 10, 1:01 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Boone, Callaway, Cape Girardeau, Chariton, Cole and 23 more59 min
Jul 10, 1:36 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Perry, Ripley and 3 more4 hr
Jul 10, 3:09 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Perry, Ripley and 3 more2 hr
Jul 10, 5:04 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Carter, Ripley, Stoddard56 min
Jul 10, 11:37 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Christian, Douglas, Howell, Laclede, McDonald and 9 more83 min
Jul 10, 1:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Butler, Camden, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Cedar and 34 more2 hr
Jul 10, 2:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford, Franklin and 16 more8 hr
Jul 10, 3:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Holt91 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.