Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1221
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 9, 2021, 7:49 PM MDT for Cheyenne County, Kit Carson County, Washington County, Colorado; 10 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 86 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 9, 2021, 7:49 PM MDT (01:49 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 9, 2021, 9:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 86 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe thunderstorm watch 356
Counties Cheyenne County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Washington County, CO, Gove County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 00:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 807 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -117 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3619 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 46 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 85 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 173 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.0
The text
As transmitted.
021
ACUS11 KWNS 100149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100149
KSZ000-COZ000-100315-
Mesoscale Discussion 1221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0849 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021
Areas affected...East-central Colorado...west-central Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356...
Valid 100149Z - 100315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356
continues.
SUMMARY...A cluster of storms in east-central Colorado will move
into a more favorable environment for severe wind gusts and isolated
large hail. As this threat may persist beyond 10 PM CDT, a new WW
may be needed for parts of far eastern Colorado into western Kansas.
Trends will be monitored.
DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms has recently developed
in east-central Colorado. As they move southeastward, they will
encounter low 60s F dewpoints with MLCAPE nearing 1500-2000 J/kg.
Given the dewpoint spreads at the surface, storms are likely to be
outflow dominant and primary pose a severe wind gust risk. However,
regional RAOBs this evening did sample very steep mid-level lapse
rates and long hodographs (40-50 kts of effective shear) will
promote at least an isolated large hail threat as well. The main
question will be how far south and east this activity will go as
MLCIN will become more pronounced. The longevity of these storms
will hinge on the degree of cold pool organization that can occur in
the next hour or so. That being said, some severe risk may extend
beyond 10 PM CDT for areas still in or just south of WW 356. A new
watch may need to be considered should convective trends warrant.
..Wendt.. 07/10/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 39400364 39810377 40060336 39770251 39190068 38770003
38260031 37960099 37880160 37870198 38290242 39400364SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 8:37 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cheyenne, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Prowers | 4 hr |
| Jul 9, 10:39 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Prowers | 66 min |
| Jul 9, 7:45 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Jewell, Mitchell, Osborne, Phillips, Rooks, Smith | 8 hr |
| Jul 9, 8:12 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Jackson and 9 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 9, 8:58 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Anderson, Atchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Coffey and 22 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 10, 12:10 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Edwards, Finney, Ford, Grant, Gray, Hamilton and 10 more | 65 min |
| Jul 10, 12:21 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Doniphan, Jackson, Jefferson, Leavenworth and 2 more | 84 min |
| Jul 10, 1:57 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Clay, Cloud, Coffey, Dickinson, Douglas and 16 more | 93 min |
| Jul 10, 12:20 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Doniphan, Marshall, Nemaha, Washington | 115 min |
| Jul 10, 1:17 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Bourbon, Butler, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley and 11 more | 118 min |
| Jul 10, 1:18 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Doniphan, Douglas, Geary, Jackson and 10 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 10, 2:02 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allen, Bourbon, Butler, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley and 9 more | 8 hr |
| Jul 10, 4:27 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Doniphan, Douglas, Jackson, Jefferson and 9 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.