Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1229

July 10, 202116 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 10, 2021, 1:10 AM CDT for 16 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 65 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 10, 2021, 1:10 AM CDT (06:10 UTC)
Expired
Jul 10, 2021, 2:15 AM CDT
In force
65 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 362

Counties Edwards County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Rush County, KS, Scott County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Trego County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 6.2 hours before the alert went out and 77 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2021-07-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2169 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2021-07-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 22 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2169 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-247 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2362 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
196 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

423 
ACUS11 KWNS 100611
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100610 
KSZ000-COZ000-100715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1229
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Areas affected...southwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362...

Valid 100610Z - 100715Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms moving across southwestern Kansas should continue
to gradually diminish, consistent with the scheduled 10/07Z
expiration of WW 362.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows substantial weakening of the
ongoing cluster of storms moving across the DDC CWA/southwestern
Kansas over the past hour.  With model soundings -- consistent with
the 00Z DDC RAOB -- showing a deep layer of relatively dry air in
the lowest 3-5 km AGL, the thermodynamic environment appears
unlikely to support appreciable new/vigorous updraft initiation.  As
such, it appears that the WW will not require extension/reissuance
beyond 10/07Z.

..Goss.. 07/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   37840241 38230193 38780049 39089976 38519899 37989876
            37299975 37410145 37840241

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 9, 8:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCJewell, Mitchell, Osborne, Phillips, Rooks, Smith8 hr
Jul 9, 8:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGove, Greeley, Hamilton, Kearny, Lane, Logan and 4 more86 min
Jul 9, 9:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Jackson and 9 more2 hr
Jul 9, 9:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCFinney, Gove, Greeley, Hamilton, Kearny, Lane and 8 more4 hr
Jul 9, 9:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Atchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Coffey and 22 more7 hr
Jul 9, 11:39 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFinney, Grant, Gray, Greeley, Hamilton, Kearny and 4 more66 min
Jul 10, 1:21 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Jackson, Jefferson, Leavenworth and 2 more84 min
Jul 10, 2:57 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Clay, Cloud, Coffey, Dickinson, Douglas and 16 more93 min
Jul 10, 1:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Marshall, Nemaha, Washington115 min
Jul 10, 2:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Bourbon, Butler, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley and 11 more118 min
Jul 10, 2:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Douglas, Geary, Jackson and 10 more7 hr
Jul 10, 3:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, Bourbon, Butler, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley and 9 more8 hr
Jul 10, 5:27 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Douglas, Jackson, Jefferson and 9 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.