Mesoscale Discussion 1233

Issued

Jul 10, 2021, 2:57 AM CDT (07:57 UTC)

Expired

Jul 10, 2021, 4:30 AM CDT

In force

93 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 363

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

570 
ACUS11 KWNS 100757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100757 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-100930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1233
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Areas affected...portions of northeastern and east-central
Kansas...and northwestern and west-central Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363...

Valid 100757Z - 100930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 363
continues.

SUMMARY...Risk for locally damaging winds continues across portions
of WW 363, and may spread into adjacent areas just to the south of
the current watch.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows continued evolution of multiple
convective clusters from Nebraska/Kansas to southern Illinois -- all
being sustained in part by a southwesterly low-level jet providing
theta-e advection and associated low-level ascent into the region. 
A band of thunderstorms now crossing northwestern Missouri continues
to effectively overturn the very unstable airmass that has been in
place across this region, with these storms expected to continue
impinging on the persistent band of slow-moving storms over
north-central Missouri.  Damaging winds remain likely within this
zone, but an eventual southward shift of the main region for
convective regeneration -- into central Missouri -- is expected with
time as outflow becomes reinforced in a west-northwest to
east-southeast manner from west-central to southeastern Missouri.

Farther west across Kansas, over southwestern portions of the watch,
some westward regeneration of convection is ongoing, ahead of a
cluster of storms moving southeastward across north-central Kansas. 
Latest indications are that this portion of WW 363 may remain an
active zone for ongoing convection/convective redevelopment for the
next few hours.

..Goss.. 07/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39989781 39889697 39389624 39039556 39429464 40659407
            40269289 39699224 38999241 38089377 38019593 38699737
            39989781

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.