Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1228

July 10, 20219 counties in Illinois; 29 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 10, 2021, 1:01 AM CDT for 9 counties in Illinois; 29 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 59 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 10, 2021, 1:01 AM CDT (06:01 UTC)
Expired
Jul 10, 2021, 2:00 AM CDT
In force
59 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 359
All 38 counties

Clinton County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Perry County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Union County, IL, Washington County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Bollinger County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Chariton County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Cole County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dent County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Howard County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Linn County, MO, Madison County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Osage County, MO, Perry County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Washington County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 39 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 00:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 280 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2021-07-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2021-07-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 57 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1282 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
57 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
177 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

624 
ACUS11 KWNS 100601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100601 
ILZ000-MOZ000-100700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1228
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

Areas affected...eastern Missouri into southwestern Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 359...

Valid 100601Z - 100700Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 359 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe storms continue.  With the watch
scheduled to expire at 07Z, local watch extension -- or new WW
issuance, may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar shows an arcing band of strong/severe
storms moving south-southeastward across eastern Missouri and
adjacent southwestern Illinois, with a 70 MPH gust recently noted at
STL.  The convection is advancing at 40 to 45 kt, and at this rate
of advance, storms will clear southern portions of the current watch
near the 10/07Z scheduled expiration time.  With a moist/unstable
airmass ahead of the convection, and mid-level flow at least
modestly supportive of continued organization to the convection, a
new WW may be needed soon, extending into the PAH (Paducah KY) CWA.

Farther to the northwest, isolated, strong/severe storms continue to
regenerate and shift southeastward -- with this regeneration
occurring where a 30 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet is
impinging on the northwest-to-southeast front/outflow boundary over
eastern Missouri.  Again, with the watch set to expire at 10/07z,
this portion of the area may also need to be included in any new WW
issuance.

..Goss.. 07/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   38609053 38798969 38598940 37758879 37188966 37209096
            37339166 38549272 40049342 40299315 38649162 38609053

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 9, 7:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCHancock, Henderson, McDonough, Warren3 hr
Jul 9, 7:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Greene, Jersey and 9 more36 min
Jul 9, 8:18 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdams, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Greene, Jersey and 9 more6 hr
Jul 9, 10:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Greene, Jersey and 7 more64 min
Jul 10, 1:36 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlexander, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Jackson and 10 more4 hr
Jul 10, 3:09 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Franklin, Jackson, Johnson, Pulaski, Saline and 2 more2 hr
Jul 10, 1:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlexander, Clay, Clinton, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin and 22 more2 hr
Jul 10, 2:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlexander, Bond, Clay, Clinton, Crawford, Edwards and 28 more8 hr
Jul 10, 3:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCass, Champaign, DeWitt, Douglas, Ford, Logan and 8 more96 min
Jul 10, 5:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin and 10 more87 min
Jul 9, 9:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Caldwell, Clay, Clinton and 8 more2 hr
Jul 9, 9:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll, Chariton and 22 more7 hr
Jul 10, 1:21 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Caldwell, Clay, Clinton and 11 more84 min
Jul 10, 2:57 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBates, Caldwell, Carroll, Cass, Chariton, Clay and 20 more93 min
Jul 10, 5:04 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Carter, Ripley, Stoddard56 min
Jul 10, 11:37 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Christian, Douglas, Howell, Laclede, McDonald and 9 more83 min
Jul 10, 1:20 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrew, Atchison, Holt, Nodaway115 min
Jul 10, 2:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Barton, Jasper, McDonald, Newton, Vernon118 min
Jul 10, 2:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrew, Atchison, Buchanan, Clay, Clinton, DeKalb and 6 more7 hr
Jul 10, 3:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarry, Barton, Camden, Cedar, Christian, Dade and 26 more8 hr
Jul 10, 3:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Holt91 min
Jul 10, 5:27 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrew, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll, Clay, Clinton and 13 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.