Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1226

July 9, 2021Prowers County, Colorado; 10 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 9, 2021, 10:39 PM MDT for Prowers County, Colorado; 10 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 66 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 9, 2021, 10:39 PM MDT (04:39 UTC)
Expired
Jul 9, 2021, 11:45 PM MDT
In force
66 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 362

Counties Prowers County, CO, Finney County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Scott County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Wichita County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2021-07-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2169 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2021-07-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 22 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2169 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-247 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2362 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
196 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

923 
ACUS11 KWNS 100439
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100439 
KSZ000-COZ000-100545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1226
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

Areas affected...Southwestern Kansas and adjacent far southeastern
Colorado

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362...

Valid 100439Z - 100545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362
continues.

SUMMARY...A few strong to possibly severe wind gusts will remain
possible as convection weakens in southwestern Kansas and far
southeastern Colorado.

DISCUSSION...The cluster of storms across east-central Colorado and
west-central Kansas have slowly weakened over the past hour,
evidenced by diminishing 50 dBZ area on 9 km CAPPI imagery. Even as
this has occurred, several near-severe and even isolated severe wind
gusts have been observed both in the vicinity of the convection and
along their outflow. As temperatures continue to slowly cool
downstream, activity should also weaken further. A few strong to
perhaps severe wind gusts will remain possible for another hour or
two given the favorable downdraft/accelerating outflow environment.

..Wendt.. 07/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   37820278 38440250 38880157 38780054 38280008 38009991
            37789989 37650012 37610076 37480155 37510209 37560247
            37820278

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 9, 7:49 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Kit Carson, Washington86 min
Jul 9, 8:37 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCheyenne, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Prowers4 hr
Jul 9, 7:45 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCJewell, Mitchell, Osborne, Phillips, Rooks, Smith8 hr
Jul 9, 8:12 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Jackson and 9 more2 hr
Jul 9, 8:58 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Atchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Coffey and 22 more7 hr
Jul 10, 12:10 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEdwards, Finney, Ford, Grant, Gray, Hamilton and 10 more65 min
Jul 10, 12:21 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Jackson, Jefferson, Leavenworth and 2 more84 min
Jul 10, 1:57 AM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Clay, Cloud, Coffey, Dickinson, Douglas and 16 more93 min
Jul 10, 12:20 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Marshall, Nemaha, Washington115 min
Jul 10, 1:17 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Bourbon, Butler, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley and 11 more118 min
Jul 10, 1:18 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Douglas, Geary, Jackson and 10 more7 hr
Jul 10, 2:02 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, Bourbon, Butler, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley and 9 more8 hr
Jul 10, 4:27 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Douglas, Jackson, Jefferson and 9 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.