Alert archive / Arkansas / Polk County
Weather alerts in Polk County, Arkansas, 2015
107 weather alerts in 2015, from the National Weather Service and the Storm Prediction Center. An alert counts here when it covered this county.
Polk County and its neighbors
Each county as a circle sized by its count in 2015. Tap one for its archive.
- Alerts
- 107
- Warnings
- 42
- Watches
- 13
- Advisories
- 0
- Busiest month
- May44 alerts
- Busiest day
- May 11, 20159 alerts
Over time
By month
Warning verification
How often warnings here had a storm report inside them, and how much warning the reports had.
0 of 5 tornado warnings covering Polk County in 2015 had a tornado report inside them.
Polk County, 2015
| Warnings | With a report | False alarm ratio | Reports | Inside a warning | Mean lead time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tornado warnings | 5 | 0 | 100% | 0 | ||
| Severe thunderstorm warnings | 13 | 3 | 77% | 6 | 83% | 40 min |
| Flash flood warnings | 21 | 10 | 52% | 6 | 100% | 107 min |
Each office's whole area, 2015
| Warnings | With a report | False alarm ratio | Reports | Inside a warning | Mean lead time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWS Little Rock, AR: tornado warnings | 40 | 6 | 85% | 14 | 71% | 17 min |
| NWS Little Rock, AR: severe thunderstorm warnings | 380 | 120 | 68% | 248 | 88% | 24 min |
| NWS Little Rock, AR: flash flood warnings | 138 | 49 | 64% | 76 | 83% | 108 min |
An office's figures cover every county it serves, including across state lines.
Verified by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow, which matches each storm-based warning with the local storm reports inside its polygon while it was in force, within 15 km of its edge: a tornado warning counts as verified on a tornado report, a severe thunderstorm warning on hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more, or wind damage, a flash flood warning on a flash flood report. The false alarm ratio is the share of warnings with no such report; "inside a warning" is the probability of detection, the share of reports that fell inside one; lead time runs from the warning's issue to each report inside it, counting zero for a report that came first. A warning with no report is not proof nothing happened: reports come from spotters, the public and damage surveys, and are thin where few people live.
The alerts
Every alert, in the order issued. Times are local, Central Time. Each opens its own page with the text, the map, the radar and the sounding.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 1:01 AM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 3 hr |
| Jan 3, 3:59 AM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 2 hr |
| Feb 16, 2:57 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 6 hr |
| Mar 24, 5:53 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 3 hr |
| Mar 25, 9:21 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 8 hr |
| Mar 25, 11:39 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 96 min |
| Mar 26, 1:11 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | 64 min |
| Mar 26, 2:17 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 58 min |
| Apr 1, 1:16 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 89 min |
| Apr 1, 4:59 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | 46 min |
| Apr 1, 5:14 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 91 min |
| Apr 1, 6:34 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | 26 min |
| Apr 9, 2:15 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Apr 9, 3:17 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 7 hr |
| Apr 9, 6:11 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 64 min |
| Apr 9, 7:04 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SHV | 26 min |
| Apr 9, 7:11 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | TSA | 34 min |
| Apr 19, 12:43 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Apr 19, 1:42 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
| May 8, 10:43 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 92 min |
| May 9, 1:24 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | 46 min |
| May 9, 9:41 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| May 9, 1:19 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 4 hr |
| May 9, 1:58 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 92 min |
| May 10, 6:44 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| May 10, 8:56 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| May 10, 9:28 AM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
| May 10, 11:25 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| May 10, 7:08 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 97 min |
| May 10, 7:34 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | 4 hr |
| May 10, 8:07 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | 28 min |
| May 10, 8:23 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | 37 min |
| May 10, 8:55 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 3 hr |
| May 10, 9:54 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | LZK | 36 min |
| May 10, 10:35 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | 40 min |
| May 10, 11:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | 50 min |
| May 10, 11:59 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 3 hr |
| May 17, 3:21 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 5 hr |
| May 17, 3:29 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 5 hr |
| May 17, 5:32 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 3 hr |
| May 17, 8:31 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 3 hr |
| May 20, 2:56 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 3 hr |
| May 20, 5:59 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 3 hr |
| May 23, 1:00 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 3 hr |
| May 24, 9:15 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | 30 min |
| May 24, 12:05 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 115 min |
| May 24, 12:34 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
| May 24, 2:23 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 3 hr |
| May 24, 2:56 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | 49 min |
| May 25, 2:35 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 55 min |
| May 25, 2:52 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | 8 hr |
| May 25, 5:08 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | 37 min |
| May 25, 5:15 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 90 min |
| May 25, 5:31 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | 59 min |
| May 25, 5:54 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | LZK | 36 min |
| May 25, 7:16 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 6 hr |
| May 28, 10:37 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 53 min |
| May 28, 11:04 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 3 hr |
| May 28, 11:08 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | 47 min |
| May 29, 12:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 87 min |
| May 29, 2:09 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | 5 hr |
| May 29, 3:36 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 4 hr |
| May 29, 4:48 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 87 min |
| Jun 17, 12:08 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Jun 17, 4:12 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | 43 min |
| Jun 18, 11:37 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | 18 min |
| Jun 18, 11:50 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | 40 min |
| Jun 26, 3:16 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 89 min |
| Jun 26, 3:31 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 5 hr |
| Jun 26, 6:28 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 92 min |
| Jul 8, 1:58 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 92 min |
| Jul 21, 7:39 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 96 min |
| Jul 25, 5:02 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | SHV | 43 min |
| Jul 30, 2:14 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | 46 min |
| Jul 30, 3:45 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 2 hr |
| Aug 6, 6:19 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | 26 min |
| Aug 6, 7:15 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | 30 min |
| Aug 10, 8:09 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | 36 min |
| Aug 22, 12:53 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Aug 24, 3:32 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | 28 min |
| Aug 30, 7:58 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | 32 min |
| Sep 8, 3:27 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | LZK | 48 min |
| Nov 5, 3:32 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 88 min |
| Nov 5, 4:00 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | 5 hr |
| Nov 5, 5:55 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Nov 5, 7:47 PM CST | Special Weather Statement | LZK | 43 min |
| Nov 5, 8:14 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 61 min |
| Nov 17, 4:35 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 115 min |
| Nov 17, 6:27 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
| Dec 13, 2:05 AM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 6 hr |
| Dec 13, 7:49 AM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 6 hr |
| Dec 13, 4:51 PM CST | Areal Flood Warning | LZK | 6 hr |
| Dec 23, 4:39 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Dec 23, 6:07 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | 38 min |
| Dec 23, 6:20 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | 7 hr |
| Dec 23, 6:23 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | 37 min |
| Dec 26, 12:02 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 58 min |
| Dec 26, 12:35 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | 9 hr |
| Dec 26, 3:51 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 114 min |
| Dec 26, 11:27 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr |
| Dec 27, 3:49 AM CST | Tornado Warning | LZK | 26 min |
| Dec 27, 4:13 AM CST | Tornado Warning | LZK | 32 min |
| Dec 27, 10:44 AM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 3 hr |
| Dec 27, 11:18 AM CST | Tornado Warning | LZK | 42 min |
| Dec 27, 1:08 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | 15 hr |
| Dec 28, 3:47 AM CST | Areal Flood Warning | LZK | 24 hr |
| Dec 29, 5:11 AM CST | Areal Flood Warning | LZK | 12 hr |
By product
Every kind of product issued here, grouped by hazard. Each opens the same place narrowed to that product.
| Product | Alerts |
|---|---|
| Severe storms | |
| Severe Thunderstorm Warning | 13 |
| Tornado Warning | 5 |
| Severe Thunderstorm Watch | 5 |
| Tornado Watch | 8 |
| Mesoscale Discussion | 36 |
| Special Weather Statement | 16 |
| Flooding | |
| Areal Flood Warning | 3 |
| Flash Flood Warning | 21 |
The busiest days
Days with the most alerts issued, by UTC date.
Nearby
Alerts in force nowTornadoes on recordForecastThe radar archive20142016
Sources
National Weather Service watches, warnings, advisories and statements from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's VTEC archive, which reconstructs tornado, severe thunderstorm, flash flood and marine warnings back to 1986 from the NWS text archive. Storm Prediction Center watches and mesoscale discussions from SPC's archive through the Mesonet. County centers from the US Census Bureau. Warning verification from the Mesonet's Cow. Rebuilt daily.