Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 154

May 10, 201519 counties in Arkansas; 17 counties in Oklahoma; Bowie County, Red River County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 10, 2015, 9:28 AM CDT for 19 counties in Arkansas; 17 counties in Oklahoma; Bowie County, Red River County, Texas. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 10, 2015, 9:28 AM CDT (14:28 UTC)
Expired
May 10, 2015, 3:56 PM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 38 counties

Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Howard County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Little River County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Newton County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Washington County, AR, Yell County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Craig County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Bowie County, TX, Red River County, TX

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

11 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 10, 9:41 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSAMayes, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner4 hr
May 10, 9:43 AM CDTTornado WarningTSALatimer, LeFlore32 min
May 10, 9:48 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSACrawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian, Washington6 hr
May 10, 10:27 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACrawford, Sebastian48 min
May 10, 10:51 AM CDTTornado WarningTSASebastian24 min
May 10, 11:01 AM CDTTornado WarningTSASebastian14 min
May 10, 11:13 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACrawford, Franklin, Sebastian62 min
May 10, 11:57 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAMadison48 min
May 10, 12:16 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKJohnson, Logan, Newton3 hr
May 10, 12:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACarroll, Madison37 min
May 10, 12:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBoone, Marion, Newton, Searcy45 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 182 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2015-05-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2015-05-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 153 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1931 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
153 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
270 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

080 
WWUS20 KWNS 101425
SEL4  
SPC WW 101425
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-102100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  WESTERN ARKANSAS
  EASTERN OKLAHOMA
  NORTHEAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 925 AM UNTIL
  400 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...ERN OK / NE TX SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E...WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES POSSIBLY YIELDING A COUPLE
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
GROVE OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF PARIS TEXAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 9, 8:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas, Grant and 6 more59 min
May 10, 2:39 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCleburne, Conway, Franklin, Independence, Jackson, Johnson and 4 more66 min
May 10, 6:44 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHoward, Little River, Polk, Sevier2 hr
May 10, 8:56 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrawford, Polk, Sebastian2 hr
May 10, 10:19 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCHoward, Little River, Sevier13 hr
May 10, 11:25 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Cleburne, Conway, Dallas, Faulkner, Franklin and 26 more2 hr
May 10, 12:58 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCCrawford, Franklin, Sebastian10 hr
May 10, 2:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLittle River2 hr
May 10, 5:05 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Cross, Faulkner and 19 more115 min
May 10, 6:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller and 2 more90 min
May 10, 11:00 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Bates, Benton, Boone, Camden, Cedar and 32 more3 hr
May 10, 11:52 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrew, Atchison, Caldwell, Carroll, Chariton, Clinton and 14 more2 hr
May 10, 1:22 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Audrain, Benton, Boone, Butler, Callaway and 54 more4 hr
May 10, 1:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrew, Atchison, Barry, Barton, Bates, Buchanan and 28 more8 hr
May 10, 3:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrew, Atchison, Barton, Bates, Buchanan, Caldwell and 17 more92 min
May 10, 3:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford, Franklin and 24 more68 min
May 10, 4:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBollinger, Cape Girardeau, Jefferson, Lincoln, Mississippi, New Madrid and 8 more4 hr
May 10, 6:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCape Girardeau, Mississippi, New Madrid, Scott, Stoddard90 min
May 9, 7:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Jefferson, Johnston and 4 more56 min
May 10, 4:20 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Coal, Cotton and 9 more55 min
May 10, 12:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Cleveland, Cotton, Garvin, Grady, Jefferson and 12 more2 hr
May 10, 3:22 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Carter, Cleveland, Coal, Creek, Garvin and 24 more53 min
May 10, 5:39 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Creek and 12 more96 min
May 9, 8:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDimmit, Frio, Kinney, La Salle, Maverick, Uvalde and 2 more84 min
May 9, 9:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Concho and 12 more2 hr
May 9, 10:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBosque, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche and 33 more10 hr
May 10, 2:06 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Callahan, Coleman, Concho, Crockett, Irion and 6 more54 min
May 10, 2:55 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBosque, Collin, Comanche, Coryell, Dallas, Denton and 22 more6 hr
May 10, 9:49 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBell, Blanco, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Camp and 49 more2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2015Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2015Tornado Watches in Texas, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.