Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2015
Tornado Watch 154
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 10, 2015, 9:28 AM CDT for 19 counties in Arkansas; 17 counties in Oklahoma; Bowie County, Red River County, Texas. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 10, 2015, 9:28 AM CDT (14:28 UTC)
- Expired
- May 10, 2015, 3:56 PM CDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 38 counties
Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Howard County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Little River County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Newton County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Washington County, AR, Yell County, AR, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Craig County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Bowie County, TX, Red River County, TX
The radar
The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 30%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 60%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 30%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 10%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 90%
Warnings issued inside it
11 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 9:41 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | TSA | Mayes, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner | 4 hr |
| May 10, 9:43 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | TSA | Latimer, LeFlore | 32 min |
| May 10, 9:48 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | TSA | Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian, Washington | 6 hr |
| May 10, 10:27 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Crawford, Sebastian | 48 min |
| May 10, 10:51 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | TSA | Sebastian | 24 min |
| May 10, 11:01 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | TSA | Sebastian | 14 min |
| May 10, 11:13 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Crawford, Franklin, Sebastian | 62 min |
| May 10, 11:57 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Madison | 48 min |
| May 10, 12:16 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | Johnson, Logan, Newton | 3 hr |
| May 10, 12:17 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Carroll, Madison | 37 min |
| May 10, 12:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Boone, Marion, Newton, Searcy | 45 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 182 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1931 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 35 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 153 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 270 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
080 WWUS20 KWNS 101425 SEL4 SPC WW 101425 ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-102100- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 925 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS EASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 925 AM UNTIL 400 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...ERN OK / NE TX SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES POSSIBLY YIELDING A COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF GROVE OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF PARIS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...CORFIDI
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 8:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas, Grant and 6 more | 59 min |
| May 10, 2:39 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cleburne, Conway, Franklin, Independence, Jackson, Johnson and 4 more | 66 min |
| May 10, 6:44 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Howard, Little River, Polk, Sevier | 2 hr |
| May 10, 8:56 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crawford, Polk, Sebastian | 2 hr |
| May 10, 10:19 AM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Howard, Little River, Sevier | 13 hr |
| May 10, 11:25 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Cleburne, Conway, Dallas, Faulkner, Franklin and 26 more | 2 hr |
| May 10, 12:58 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Crawford, Franklin, Sebastian | 10 hr |
| May 10, 2:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Little River | 2 hr |
| May 10, 5:05 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Cross, Faulkner and 19 more | 115 min |
| May 10, 6:15 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Columbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller and 2 more | 90 min |
| May 10, 11:00 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Bates, Benton, Boone, Camden, Cedar and 32 more | 3 hr |
| May 10, 11:52 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Caldwell, Carroll, Chariton, Clinton and 14 more | 2 hr |
| May 10, 1:22 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adair, Audrain, Benton, Boone, Butler, Callaway and 54 more | 4 hr |
| May 10, 1:47 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Barry, Barton, Bates, Buchanan and 28 more | 8 hr |
| May 10, 3:13 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Barton, Bates, Buchanan, Caldwell and 17 more | 92 min |
| May 10, 3:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford, Franklin and 24 more | 68 min |
| May 10, 4:02 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Jefferson, Lincoln, Mississippi, New Madrid and 8 more | 4 hr |
| May 10, 6:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cape Girardeau, Mississippi, New Madrid, Scott, Stoddard | 90 min |
| May 9, 7:49 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Jefferson, Johnston and 4 more | 56 min |
| May 10, 4:20 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Coal, Cotton and 9 more | 55 min |
| May 10, 12:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carter, Cleveland, Cotton, Garvin, Grady, Jefferson and 12 more | 2 hr |
| May 10, 3:22 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atoka, Carter, Cleveland, Coal, Creek, Garvin and 24 more | 53 min |
| May 10, 5:39 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Creek and 12 more | 96 min |
| May 9, 8:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dimmit, Frio, Kinney, La Salle, Maverick, Uvalde and 2 more | 84 min |
| May 9, 9:38 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Concho and 12 more | 2 hr |
| May 9, 10:51 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche and 33 more | 10 hr |
| May 10, 2:06 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Concho, Crockett, Irion and 6 more | 54 min |
| May 10, 2:55 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bosque, Collin, Comanche, Coryell, Dallas, Denton and 22 more | 6 hr |
| May 10, 9:49 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Brown, Burnet, Camp and 49 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2015Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2015Tornado Watches in Texas, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.