Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW MORE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS FOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
OVER WEST CENTRAL AR AND SOUTHEAST OK WHERE PRECIPITATION AND
LINGERING CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN.

APPEARS THAT CONVECTION COULD BEGIN BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SOME WEAK
CONVECTION INITIATING SOUTH OF ICT AT THIS TIME. IF THIS CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP...MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS FOR PORTIONS OF OSAGE AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  52  71  49 /  80  60  10  10
FSM   78  62  78  54 / 100  90  30  10
MLC   77  60  73  51 /  80  80  10  10
BVO   79  53  69  42 /  70  40  10  10
FYV   74  59  71  44 / 100  90  20  10
BYV   76  60  72  48 / 100  90  30  10
MKO   76  54  71  50 /  80  80  10  10
MIO   76  54  69  45 / 100  70  10  10
F10   76  55  71  51 /  80  80  10  10
HHW   78  62  77  54 / 100  80  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1020 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1020 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS CONTINUE TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
                                ARKANSAS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...WITH THREATS INCLUDING HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF GOLF BALLS...WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 75 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY
REGION.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
DESTABLIZE ENOUGH BEHIND THE MORNING STORMS TO RESULT IN SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL...INCLUDING A TORNADO THREAT...WITH THESE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...BEFORE THE DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FULLY MOVES INTO THAT PORTION OF THE REGION.
MOST OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD. AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED AT BEST.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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