River Flood Advisory 6, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 12Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTERMITTENT IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS... ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
JUST ABOUT ANY SITE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE PRODUCED SPORADIC SEVERE WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK AND WRN AR ARE GRADUALLY
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A
FEW HOURS OF LIMITED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIFTS NE FROM TX INTO
ERN OK/WRN AR BY MID-MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS WE'VE
SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN QUITE
MESSY ALTHOUGH STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME
SEVERE WEATHER.

THE NAM HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS SE KS INTO PARTS OF OK AS THE PACIFIC
FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPING SE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEFORE EXITING BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

BIGGEST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF
FLASH FLOODING...AS THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS AREAS OF ERN OK AND
WRN AR WHERE BETWEEN 3 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS. PRECIP WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES...WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL
LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK/WRN AR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SHUNTING THE
BEST MOISTURE S OF THE AREA. MOIST SLY/SWLY FLOW WILL RETURN AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES E...WITH THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASING BY
MID TO LATE WEEK. BEST CHANCES AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
508 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
508 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS CONTINUE TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...MID MORNING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID MORNING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID MORNING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ON TAP TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY TRAVERSES THE REGION. ALONG
WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET THIS MORNING... STRONG
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AS ONGOING STRONG STORMS IN
NORTH TEXAS MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER DURING THE MORNING.
LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS... AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION... WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURATED AND
ALREADY FLOODED... ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY... WHICH IS
EXPECTED... WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL PERSIST... AND LIKELY WORSEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EVERY DAY
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK... CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE
MIDDLE AND LATE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW AS UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS
WEAK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
236 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ARKOMA                  35.35N 94.44W
05/10/2015                   LE FLORE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF AT LEAST ONE HOME BEING EVACUATED DUE TO HIGH
            WATER.

&&

CKH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
237 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FORT SMITH              35.39N 94.40W
05/10/2015                   SEBASTIAN          AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORT OF 2 FEET OF WATER COVERING ROGERS AVE IN FORT
            SMITH.

&&

CKH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
754 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

OKZ060-064>066-101400-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-TULSA OK-
754 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CREEK...WESTERN OKMULGEE AND WESTERN TULSA

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     OKFUSKEE

AT 754 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF SILVER CITY TO 60 MILES SOUTH OF
BEARDEN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...TULSA...WILSON...LIBERTY...GRAY...OKEMAH...
WELEETKA...BEARDEN...CLEARVIEW...PHAROAH...CASTLE...PADEN...BOLEY...
MASON...OKFUSKEE...WELTY...OKMULGEE...HENRYETTA...BRYANT...DEWAR...
SCHULTER...PRESTON...BEGGS...SAND SPRINGS...JENKS...GLENPOOL...
BRISTOW...MILFAY...SLICK...DEPEW...MOUNDS...KIEFER...SILVER CITY...
KELLYVILLE...SAPULPA...OKMULGEE STATE PARK AND JENKS RIVERSIDE
AIRPORT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3608 9657 3617 9595 3537 9594 3537 9598
      3529 9598 3528 9643 3529 9645 3545 9645
      3545 9648 3543 9649 3545 9655 3539 9653
      3539 9655 3540 9657
TIME...MOT...LOC 1254Z 250DEG 25KT 3603 9645 3448 9646