Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 596

May 10, 201518 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2015, 5:39 PM CDT for 18 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 10, 2015, 5:39 PM CDT (22:39 UTC)
Expired: May 10, 2015, 7:15 PM CDT
In force: 96 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Carter County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Creek County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, McClain County, OK, Murray County, OK, Osage County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Washington County, OK

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 103 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1564 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -39 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 614 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 255 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 256 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.9
Supercell composite: 11.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

724 
ACUS11 KWNS 102240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102239 
OKZ000-TXZ000-110015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0539 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 157...

VALID 102239Z - 110015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 157 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED HAIL/WIND AND A BRIEF
TORNADO SHOULD BE EFFECTIVELY RELEGATED TO THE SRN PORTION OF WW 157
ALONG THE RED RIVER. THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW ELSEWHERE
IN THE WATCH...BUT ISOLATED HAIL MAY FORM AS TSTMS GRADUALLY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT.

DISCUSSION...22Z OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS PLACED THE COLD FRONT FROM
OSAGE TO COTTON COUNTIES WITH SEVERAL SHOWERS AND A TSTM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY FROM MCCLAIN COUNTY N. LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED AND
WEAKENED AHEAD OF THE FRONT PER TLX VWP DATA AND SWLY DEEP FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN SEMI-PARALLEL TO THE NNE/SSW-ORIENTED FRONT. ALTHOUGH
A LIMITED CORRIDOR OF DIABATIC HEATING HAS OCCURRED IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ONGOING MCS OVER S-CNTRL/SERN OK WILL CURTAIL
FURTHER ATTEMPTS AT WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION. MID-LEVEL DCVA IS
CURRENTLY TEASING THE FRONT AND A FEW TSTMS WILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP
ALONG IT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH PERHAPS A RISK FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL. PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WITHIN THE WATCH SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MCS DEVELOPING FROM N-CNTRL TX TO SERN OK.

..GRAMS.. 05/10/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   36959628 36939579 36729565 35989612 35369658 34989685
            34489674 34699558 34699477 34509459 34199488 33929560
            33889694 33859735 33919765 34669771 35049763 36959628

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 9, 7:49 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Jefferson, Johnston and 4 more	56 min
May 10, 4:20 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Coal, Cotton and 9 more	55 min
May 10, 6:44 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bryan, Choctaw, McCurtain, Pushmataha	2 hr
May 10, 8:56 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Cherokee, Delaware, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore and 8 more	2 hr
May 10, 9:28 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Adair, Cherokee, Choctaw, Craig, Delaware, Haskell and 11 more	6 hr
May 10, 10:19 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	McCurtain	13 hr
May 10, 12:33 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Carter, Cleveland, Cotton, Garvin, Grady, Jefferson and 12 more	2 hr
May 10, 12:58 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal and 41 more	10 hr
May 10, 3:22 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Carter, Cleveland, Coal, Creek, Garvin and 24 more	53 min
May 10, 6:15 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bryan, Choctaw, McCurtain	90 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2015 Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.