Alert archive / Arkansas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015

Flash Flood Warning 126, NWS Little Rock, AR

December 27, 20156 counties in Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this flash flood warning at Dec 27, 2015, 1:08 PM CST for 6 counties in Arkansas. It was in force for 15 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 27, 2015, 1:08 PM CST (19:08 UTC)
Expired
Dec 28, 2015, 4:30 AM CST
In force
15 hr
Issued by
NWS Little Rock, AR
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Logan County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Scott County, AR, Yell County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 243 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2015-12-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2015-12-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -34 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
500 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
74 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-34 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
61 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Dec 27, 11:51 AM CST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 27, 11:51 AM CST, 1 hour 17 minutes before
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Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 27, 12:30 PM CST, 38 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1230 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-281100-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-CALHOUN-
BRADLEY-DREW-
1230 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.

SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ON GROUND
THAT IS ALREADY SATURATED AND WITH NO WHERE FOR THE WATER TO RUN OFF
TO...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF
RAIN STILL LOOK TO BE OVER THE OUACHITA AND OZARK MOUNTAIN REGIONS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT HERE EITHER. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN THE SOUTH WHERE A SLIGHT RISK EXISTS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY...BRINGING ONE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING CONCERN INTO THE
COMING WEEK.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE
CASE THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MANY PEOPLE TRAVELING ACROSS
ARKANSAS WHO ARE NOT FAMILIAR WITH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 27, 10:36 AM CST, 2 hours 32 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1036 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE BLUE BALL          34.97N 93.68W
12/27/2015                   YELL               AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SWIFT WATER RESCUE OF 2 INDIVIDUALS NEAR THE INTERSECTION
            OF HIGHWAY 80 AND FOREST ROAD 18.

&&

226

The office that day

Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 27, 3:49 AM CSTTornado WarningLZKPolk, Scott26 min
Dec 27, 4:13 AM CSTTornado WarningLZKPolk, Scott32 min
Dec 27, 8:30 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKLogan, Montgomery, Scott, Yell3 hr
Dec 27, 10:44 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKLogan, Montgomery, Polk, Scott3 hr
Dec 27, 11:18 AM CSTTornado WarningLZKPolk42 min
Dec 27, 1:49 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKMontgomery, Pike41 min
Dec 27, 2:46 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKBoone, Johnson, Logan, Newton, Pope3 hr
Dec 27, 3:17 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementLZKCalhoun43 min
Dec 27, 3:23 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCalhoun, Dallas, Ouachita52 min
Dec 27, 3:37 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCalhoun, Ouachita23 min
Dec 27, 3:43 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKCalhoun, Ouachita47 min
Dec 27, 4:15 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKCalhoun, Dallas45 min
Dec 27, 4:23 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Pike52 min
Dec 27, 4:26 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKBradley49 min
Dec 27, 4:47 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKCleveland, Dallas29 min
Dec 27, 5:12 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKBradley, Cleveland48 min
Dec 27, 5:42 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKClark, Conway, Faulkner, Garland, Hot Spring, Montgomery and 6 more6 hr
Dec 27, 5:44 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLZKCalhoun, Cleveland, Dallas, Faulkner, Grant, Hot Spring and 6 more6 hr
Dec 27, 5:54 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKCleveland, Lincoln36 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arkansas, 2015Every flash flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.