Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 557

December 23, 201556 counties in Arkansas; 9 parishes in Louisiana; 20 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Dec 23, 2015, 6:20 AM CST for 56 counties in Arkansas; 9 parishes in Louisiana; 20 counties in Texas. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 23, 2015, 6:20 AM CST (12:20 UTC)
Expired
Dec 23, 2015, 1:00 PM CST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 85 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Baxter County, AR, Boone County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Conway County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Little River County, AR, Logan County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Marion County, AR, Miller County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Newton County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Union County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Yell County, AR, Bienville Parish, LA, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, De Soto Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Red River Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, Angelina County, TX, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Morris County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Panola County, TX, Red River County, TX, Rusk County, TX, San Augustine County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Smith County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Wood County, TX

The radar

The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
80%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

18 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 23, 6:23 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKMontgomery, Polk, Scott, Yell37 min
Dec 23, 6:33 AM CSTTornado WarningLZKBaxter, Fulton, Izard, Stone27 min
Dec 23, 6:37 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVSevier38 min
Dec 23, 6:57 AM CSTTornado WarningLZKFulton, Izard, Sharp48 min
Dec 23, 7:17 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKConway, Garland, Johnson, Logan, Montgomery, Perry and 4 more28 min
Dec 23, 7:39 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKConway, Faulkner, Garland, Perry, Pope, Pulaski and 3 more51 min
Dec 23, 8:10 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBaxter, Cleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Fulton, Independence and 5 more35 min
Dec 23, 8:37 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCleburne, Faulkner, Fulton, Independence, Izard, Sharp and 2 more38 min
Dec 23, 9:14 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGLawrence, Randolph31 min
Dec 23, 9:16 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFulton, Sharp14 min
Dec 23, 9:41 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGClay, Greene, Lawrence, Randolph49 min
Dec 23, 11:00 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKFaulkner, Grant, Jefferson, Lonoke, Pulaski, Saline and 1 more45 min
Dec 23, 11:39 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKJackson, Lonoke, Prairie, White, Woodruff36 min
Dec 23, 11:53 AM CSTTornado WarningLZKLonoke, Prairie, White, Woodruff37 min
Dec 23, 12:20 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKJackson, White, Woodruff25 min
Dec 23, 12:36 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGCraighead, Greene, Lawrence, Poinsett24 min
Dec 23, 12:50 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLonoke, Prairie, White, Woodruff40 min
Dec 23, 12:52 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKJefferson, Lonoke, Prairie, Pulaski53 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KBAD), launched 12:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2015-12-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1041 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2015-12-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 293 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1041 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-73 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
598 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
65 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
293 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
218 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.5
Supercell composite
6.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

561 
WWUS20 KWNS 231219
SEL7  
SPC WW 231219
ARZ000-LAZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-231900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 557
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
620 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS
  NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
  SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
  NORTHEAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 620 AM
  UNTIL 100 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY
  WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVERSPREADING THE ARKLATEX REGION AND MUCH OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS
THROUGH MID DAY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT.  THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH A FEW
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF LONGVIEW
TEXAS TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS.  FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 556...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...KERR

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 22, 10:17 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Columbia, Dallas, Garland, Hempstead, Hot Spring and 9 more2 hr
Dec 23, 12:06 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 10 more7 hr
Dec 23, 4:39 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland, Columbia and 37 more2 hr
Dec 23, 6:13 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Greene, Randolph2 hr
Dec 23, 9:05 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Clark, Clay, Cleburne, Cleveland, Craighead and 28 more85 min
Dec 23, 9:13 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCClay, Craighead, Greene, Lawrence, Mississippi, Poinsett and 1 more8 hr
Dec 23, 10:12 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 10 more93 min
Dec 23, 10:29 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay91 min
Dec 23, 10:58 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Cleveland, Crittenden and 11 more2 hr
Dec 23, 11:57 AM CSTTornado Watch PDSSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 12 more9 hr
Dec 23, 12:48 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 16 more57 min
Dec 23, 2:49 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChicot, Crittenden, Cross, Desha, Lee, Mississippi and 2 more86 min
Dec 22, 11:20 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJefferson, Lafourche, Plaquemines, St. Mary, Terrebonne115 min
Dec 23, 2:34 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Caldwell and 38 more86 min
Dec 23, 1:33 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEast Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Saint Helena, Washington57 min
Dec 23, 12:42 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Clark, Crawford and 29 more2 hr
Dec 23, 1:55 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAudrain, Callaway, Clark, Franklin, Gasconade, Jefferson and 15 more4 hr
Dec 23, 3:24 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudrain, Callaway, Clark, Franklin, Gasconade, Jefferson and 15 more96 min
Dec 23, 4:26 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBedford, Bledsoe, Cannon, Cheatham, Clay, Coffee and 38 more64 min
Dec 23, 4:49 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBedford, Cannon, Cheatham, Coffee, Davidson, Dickson and 23 more6 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2015Tornado Watches in Texas, 2015Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.