Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2015
Tornado Watch 557
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Dec 23, 2015, 6:20 AM CST for 56 counties in Arkansas; 9 parishes in Louisiana; 20 counties in Texas. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 23, 2015, 6:20 AM CST (12:20 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 23, 2015, 1:00 PM CST
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 85 counties
Arkansas County, AR, Baxter County, AR, Boone County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Conway County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Little River County, AR, Logan County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Marion County, AR, Miller County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Newton County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Union County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Yell County, AR, Bienville Parish, LA, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, De Soto Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Red River Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, Angelina County, TX, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Morris County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Panola County, TX, Red River County, TX, Rusk County, TX, San Augustine County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Smith County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Wood County, TX
The radar
The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 60%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 80%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 40%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 10%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 95%
Warnings issued inside it
18 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 6:23 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Montgomery, Polk, Scott, Yell | 37 min |
| Dec 23, 6:33 AM CST | Tornado Warning | LZK | Baxter, Fulton, Izard, Stone | 27 min |
| Dec 23, 6:37 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Sevier | 38 min |
| Dec 23, 6:57 AM CST | Tornado Warning | LZK | Fulton, Izard, Sharp | 48 min |
| Dec 23, 7:17 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Conway, Garland, Johnson, Logan, Montgomery, Perry and 4 more | 28 min |
| Dec 23, 7:39 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Conway, Faulkner, Garland, Perry, Pope, Pulaski and 3 more | 51 min |
| Dec 23, 8:10 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Baxter, Cleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Fulton, Independence and 5 more | 35 min |
| Dec 23, 8:37 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Cleburne, Faulkner, Fulton, Independence, Izard, Sharp and 2 more | 38 min |
| Dec 23, 9:14 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Lawrence, Randolph | 31 min |
| Dec 23, 9:16 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Fulton, Sharp | 14 min |
| Dec 23, 9:41 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Clay, Greene, Lawrence, Randolph | 49 min |
| Dec 23, 11:00 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Faulkner, Grant, Jefferson, Lonoke, Pulaski, Saline and 1 more | 45 min |
| Dec 23, 11:39 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Jackson, Lonoke, Prairie, White, Woodruff | 36 min |
| Dec 23, 11:53 AM CST | Tornado Warning | LZK | Lonoke, Prairie, White, Woodruff | 37 min |
| Dec 23, 12:20 PM CST | Tornado Warning | LZK | Jackson, White, Woodruff | 25 min |
| Dec 23, 12:36 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Craighead, Greene, Lawrence, Poinsett | 24 min |
| Dec 23, 12:50 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Lonoke, Prairie, White, Woodruff | 40 min |
| Dec 23, 12:52 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Jefferson, Lonoke, Prairie, Pulaski | 53 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Shreveport, LA (KBAD), launched 12:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1041 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -73 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 598 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 65 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 293 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 218 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.5
- Supercell composite
- 6.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
561 WWUS20 KWNS 231219 SEL7 SPC WW 231219 ARZ000-LAZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-231900- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 557 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 620 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 620 AM UNTIL 100 PM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADING THE ARKLATEX REGION AND MUCH OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH MID DAY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH A FEW TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF LONGVIEW TEXAS TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 556... AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045. ...KERR
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 10:17 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Columbia, Dallas, Garland, Hempstead, Hot Spring and 9 more | 2 hr |
| Dec 23, 12:06 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 10 more | 7 hr |
| Dec 23, 4:39 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland, Columbia and 37 more | 2 hr |
| Dec 23, 6:13 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Greene, Randolph | 2 hr |
| Dec 23, 9:05 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Clark, Clay, Cleburne, Cleveland, Craighead and 28 more | 85 min |
| Dec 23, 9:13 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Clay, Craighead, Greene, Lawrence, Mississippi, Poinsett and 1 more | 8 hr |
| Dec 23, 10:12 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 10 more | 93 min |
| Dec 23, 10:29 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay | 91 min |
| Dec 23, 10:58 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Cleveland, Crittenden and 11 more | 2 hr |
| Dec 23, 11:57 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 12 more | 9 hr |
| Dec 23, 12:48 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 16 more | 57 min |
| Dec 23, 2:49 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chicot, Crittenden, Cross, Desha, Lee, Mississippi and 2 more | 86 min |
| Dec 22, 11:20 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Jefferson, Lafourche, Plaquemines, St. Mary, Terrebonne | 115 min |
| Dec 23, 2:34 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Acadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Caldwell and 38 more | 86 min |
| Dec 23, 1:33 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Saint Helena, Washington | 57 min |
| Dec 23, 12:42 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Clark, Crawford and 29 more | 2 hr |
| Dec 23, 1:55 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Audrain, Callaway, Clark, Franklin, Gasconade, Jefferson and 15 more | 4 hr |
| Dec 23, 3:24 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Audrain, Callaway, Clark, Franklin, Gasconade, Jefferson and 15 more | 96 min |
| Dec 23, 4:26 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bedford, Bledsoe, Cannon, Cheatham, Clay, Coffee and 38 more | 64 min |
| Dec 23, 4:49 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bedford, Cannon, Cheatham, Coffee, Davidson, Dickson and 23 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2015Tornado Watches in Texas, 2015Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.