Alert archive / Illinois / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 558

December 23, 20156 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Dec 23, 2015, 9:13 AM CST for 6 states. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Dec 23, 2015, 9:13 AM CST (15:13 UTC)
Expired: Dec 23, 2015, 5:00 PM CST
In force: 8 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1 in
Strongest gust expected: 65 kt

All 89 counties

Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Greene County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Alexander County, IL, Bond County, IL, Champaign County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clark County, IL, Clay County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Coles County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Macon County, IL, Marion County, IL, Massac County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Perry County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Richland County, IL, Saline County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Union County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Washington County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Gibson County, IN, Posey County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Ballard County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, Union County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Madison County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Perry County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Crockett County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Obion County, TN, Weakley County, TN

The radar

The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 125 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 30%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 40%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 10%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 90%

Warnings issued inside it

66 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 23, 9:14 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lawrence, Randolph	31 min
Dec 23, 9:21 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Carter, Ripley	39 min
Dec 23, 9:38 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Franklin, Jackson, Perry	22 min
Dec 23, 9:41 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Greene, Lawrence, Randolph	49 min
Dec 23, 9:46 AM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Carter	13 min
Dec 23, 9:48 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Coles, Cumberland, Douglas, Macon, Moultrie, Piatt and 1 more	27 min
Dec 23, 9:51 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Butler, Carter, Ripley, Wayne	54 min
Dec 23, 9:53 AM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Wayne	37 min
Dec 23, 9:58 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Iron, Madison, Saint Francois	47 min
Dec 23, 10:20 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Madison	25 min
Dec 23, 10:24 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Stoddard	36 min
Dec 23, 10:30 AM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Bollinger	17 min
Dec 23, 10:37 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Monroe, Randolph, Saint Clair	38 min
Dec 23, 10:44 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Cape Girardeau, Perry, Scott, Stoddard	46 min
Dec 23, 10:46 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay	29 min
Dec 23, 11:02 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Greene, Mississippi	28 min
Dec 23, 11:06 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Clinton, Washington	39 min
Dec 23, 11:06 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Alexander, Jackson, Perry, Pulaski, Union	39 min
Dec 23, 11:08 AM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Jackson, Perry	37 min
Dec 23, 11:28 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Franklin, Jefferson, Johnson, Union, Williamson	47 min
Dec 23, 11:38 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Clinton, Fayette, Marion	34 min
Dec 23, 11:44 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Clark, Crawford, Jasper	31 min
Dec 23, 11:48 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Hamilton, Saline, Wayne	42 min
Dec 23, 11:53 AM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Johnson	18 min
Dec 23, 11:59 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Clay, Effingham, Jasper, Richland	31 min
Dec 23, 12:08 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Pope	37 min
Dec 23, 12:14 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Edwards, Gallatin, Wayne, White	46 min
Dec 23, 12:25 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Edwards, Wayne	23 min
Dec 23, 12:36 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Greene, Lawrence, Poinsett	24 min
Dec 23, 12:39 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Cross, Poinsett	36 min
Dec 23, 12:41 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Crawford, Lawrence, Richland	34 min
Dec 23, 12:41 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Wabash	64 min
Dec 23, 12:59 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Craighead, Greene	46 min
Dec 23, 1:01 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Gibson	29 min
Dec 23, 1:07 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Greene, Mississippi, Poinsett	38 min
Dec 23, 1:32 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Fulton	58 min
Dec 23, 1:33 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Craighead, Greene	57 min
Dec 23, 1:42 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Mississippi	33 min
Dec 23, 1:58 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Poinsett	47 min
Dec 23, 2:02 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Mississippi, Scott	28 min
Dec 23, 2:04 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Pemiscot	41 min
Dec 23, 2:17 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Alexander, Pulaski	43 min
Dec 23, 2:24 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Cross, Poinsett	3 hr
Dec 23, 2:24 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Ballard, Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman	51 min
Dec 23, 2:28 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Mississippi, Poinsett	32 min
Dec 23, 2:34 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Mississippi	26 min
Dec 23, 2:43 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Johnson, Massac, Pope	32 min
Dec 23, 2:43 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Caldwell, Crittenden	15 min
Dec 23, 2:49 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Dyer, Lake, Obion	3 hr
Dec 23, 2:50 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Mississippi	25 min
Dec 23, 2:53 PM CST	Tornado Warning	MEG	Mississippi	37 min
Dec 23, 2:55 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Massac, Pope, Pulaski	3 hr
Dec 23, 2:56 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Johnson, Pope	16 min
Dec 23, 3:04 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Massac, Pope	26 min
Dec 23, 3:15 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Calloway, Graves, Marshall	30 min
Dec 23, 3:18 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Pope	27 min
Dec 23, 3:18 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Daviess, Henderson, McLean	27 min
Dec 23, 3:30 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Caldwell, Crittenden, Lyon	31 min
Dec 23, 3:48 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Caldwell, Crittenden, Hopkins, Webster	42 min
Dec 23, 4:18 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crockett, Gibson, Weakley	27 min
Dec 23, 4:21 PM CST	Tornado Warning	MEG	Crockett, Gibson, Weakley	24 min
Dec 23, 4:22 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Calloway, Graves, Marshall	26 min
Dec 23, 4:27 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Carroll, Dyer, Gibson, Henry, Obion, Weakley	3 hr
Dec 23, 4:33 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Carroll, Crockett, Gibson, Haywood, Henderson, Madison	42 min
Dec 23, 4:45 PM CST	Tornado Warning	MEG	Gibson, Henry, Weakley	45 min
Dec 23, 5:00 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Caldwell, Christian, Hopkins, Muhlenberg	45 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 3.2 hours before the alert went out and 205 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 12 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -75 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 465 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 260 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 212 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

280 
WWUS20 KWNS 231511
SEL8  
SPC WW 231511
ARZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-232300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 558
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
  SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
  FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA
  WESTERN KENTUCKY
  SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
  NORTHWEST TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 910 AM
  UNTIL 500 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
    TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...TWO LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE
REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES AS THE
MAIN HAZARDS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF CHAMPAIGN
ILLINOIS TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DYERSBURG TENNESSEE.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 557...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21045.


...GRAMS

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 22, 10:17 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clark, Columbia, Dallas, Garland, Hempstead, Hot Spring and 9 more	2 hr
Dec 23, 12:06 AM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 10 more	7 hr
Dec 23, 4:39 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland, Columbia and 37 more	2 hr
Dec 23, 6:13 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Greene, Randolph	2 hr
Dec 23, 6:20 AM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Arkansas, Baxter, Boone, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark and 50 more	7 hr
Dec 23, 9:05 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Clark, Clay, Cleburne, Cleveland, Craighead and 28 more	85 min
Dec 23, 10:12 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Dallas and 10 more	93 min
Dec 23, 10:29 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay	91 min
Dec 23, 10:58 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Cleveland, Crittenden and 11 more	2 hr
Dec 23, 11:57 AM CST	Tornado Watch PDS	SPC	Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 12 more	9 hr
Dec 23, 12:48 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 16 more	57 min
Dec 23, 2:49 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chicot, Crittenden, Cross, Desha, Lee, Mississippi and 2 more	86 min
Dec 23, 9:41 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cook, DuPage, Ford, Grundy, Iroquois, Kane and 5 more	2 hr
Dec 23, 12:06 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Crawford, Edwards, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin and 7 more	84 min
Dec 23, 12:42 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Brown, Bureau, Calhoun, Cass, Fulton and 25 more	2 hr
Dec 23, 1:55 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Adams, Brown, Bureau, Calhoun, Cass, Fulton and 24 more	4 hr
Dec 23, 3:24 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Brown, Bureau, Calhoun, Cass, Fulton and 26 more	96 min
Dec 23, 12:28 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bartholomew, Boone, Brown, Carroll, Clark, Clay and 51 more	8 hr
Dec 23, 1:55 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, DeKalb, Elkhart, Huntington, Kosciusko, LaGrange and 4 more	95 min
Dec 23, 2:16 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bartholomew, Brown, Clark, Crawford, Dearborn, Decatur and 34 more	59 min
Dec 23, 4:59 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Orange and 4 more	2 hr
Dec 23, 3:17 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton and 5 more	7 hr
Dec 23, 4:26 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bedford, Bledsoe, Cannon, Cheatham, Clay, Coffee and 38 more	64 min
Dec 23, 4:49 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bedford, Cannon, Cheatham, Coffee, Davidson, Dickson and 23 more	6 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2015 Tornado Watches in Kentucky, 2015 Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2015 Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.