Alert archive / Arkansas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015

Flash Flood Warning 106, NWS Memphis, TN

December 23, 2015Cross County, Poinsett County, Arkansas

NWS Memphis, TN issued this flash flood warning at Dec 23, 2015, 2:24 PM CST for Cross County, Poinsett County, Arkansas. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Dec 23, 2015, 2:24 PM CST (20:24 UTC)
Expired: Dec 23, 2015, 5:15 PM CST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Cross County, AR, Poinsett County, AR

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 343 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -24 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 568 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 331 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 353 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

972 
WGUS54 KMEG 232024
FFWMEG
ARC037-111-232315-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FF.W.0106.151223T2024Z-151223T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
224 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTH CENTRAL POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CST

* AT 221 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
  OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  WYNNE...VILLAGE CREEK STATE PARK...CHERRY VALLEY...VANNDALE...RIVER
  FRONT...PRINCEDALE...COLTON...STEWART...WITTSBURG...LEVESQUE...
  WILEY CROSSING...BAY VILLAGE...MC ELROY...MONTEREY...FAIR FIELD...
  MERSMAN AND BIRDEYE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3554 9081 3547 9055 3515 9065 3515 9067
      3522 9092

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Dec 23, 11:57 AM CST, 2 hours 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 23, 11:57 AM CST, 2 hours 27 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1157 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ACROSS
NE AR INTO CNTRL AR WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS LINE. WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY ACROSS NW TN...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MORE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN WATCH #558 OVER NE
AR...MO BOOTHEEL AND NW TN.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT A SHORTWAVE TO EJECT OUT OF SRN AR INTO
THE MIDSOUTH INCREASING THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER MEMPHIS
AND JACKSON AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. PLENTY OF DYNAMICS AND
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE BEST CHANCE OF TORNADOES THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO
HAVE A HIGHER THREAT.

THIS EVENING...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE NORTH AND 500MB
HTS RISE. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS SHIFT TO THE NORTH.

SWC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015/

OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

DISCUSSION...10Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A STRONG SURFACE LOW
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM
THE LOW ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SURFACE LOW HAVE ALREADY ADVECTED LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60 DEWPOINT AIR UP INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE A DEEP LONGWAVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A
WARM FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS OF DISCUSSION.
CONSEQUENTLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE
ACROSS ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. AS OF 4 AM CST...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IS THE
PREDOMINANT FOCUS IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING. A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BUT THINK THE BULK OF THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL OCCUR MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG
COLD FRONT ROTATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS.

RECORD WARMTH WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S COMBINED
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCED BY THE RIGHT EXIT
REGION OF A 130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET...DECENT 50-80 DM 500 MB MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2O00
J/KG...STEEP 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7
C/KM...0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 300
M2/S2...STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS...FAVORABLE LCL/S AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 70 KTS SUGGESTS A VERY GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS. A POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS
FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH WITH THE
I-40 CORRIDOR IN THE CENTER OF THE RISK AREA. SHORT TERM MESOSCALE
TRENDS WILL CLOSELY BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. RESIDENTS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND HOLIDAY TRAVELERS
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST TODAY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS THEIR
LOCATION.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE
MID SOUTH TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
AREA...BRINGING AN GRADUAL END TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BY CHRISTMAS EVE. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG AS
THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND RETURN BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS  AND WILL BE
CLOSELY WATCHED IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE THE MID SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN A WARM
SECTOR FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND RESULTING IN A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY POSE YET ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT
TO MONDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS MOMENT DUE TO
PERSISTENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES WITH THIS PARTICULAR
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM. STAY TUNED...

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...SPREADING OVER THE AREA IS
THE CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI LATER TONIGHT THE RISK FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE AT TUP.

 BELLES

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 23, 7:04 AM CST, 7 hours 20 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
704 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-241515-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
704 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID SOUTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME STRONG ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE TIME OF
GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 11 AM CST
AND 11 PM CST.

RESIDENTS OF THE MID SOUTH AND TRAVELERS COMING THROUGH THE AREA
FOR THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN WEATHER
AWARE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE PREPARED TO QUICKLY TAKE APPROPRIATE
SAFETY PRECAUTIONS IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN BETWEEN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE
WEATHER OPERATIONS.

CJC

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 23, 1:27 PM CST, 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
127 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 S JONESBORO           35.72N 90.69W
12/23/2015                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   PUBLIC

            POWER LINES DOWN

&&

PJB

Local storm report, Dec 23, 1:28 PM CST, 56 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
128 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     HAIL             BAY                     35.74N 90.56W
12/23/2015  E2.50 INCH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   PUBLIC

&&

JEB

Local storm report, Dec 23, 1:30 PM CST, 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
130 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     HAIL             VALLEY VIEW             35.78N 90.74W
12/23/2015  E2.75 INCH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   PUBLIC

&&

JEB

Local storm report, Dec 23, 2:03 PM CST, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
203 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0158 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W MANILA              35.88N 90.22W
12/23/2015  E65 MPH          MISSISSIPPI        AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JEB

Local storm report, Dec 23, 2:04 PM CST, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
204 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0158 PM     HAIL             KENNETT                 36.24N 90.05W
12/23/2015  E1.00 INCH       DUNKLIN            MO   PUBLIC

&&

JEB

Local storm report, Dec 23, 2:07 PM CST, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
207 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     HAIL             FAIR OAKS               35.23N 91.03W
12/23/2015  E1.75 INCH       CROSS              AR   PUBLIC

&&

JEB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 23, 9:14 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lawrence, Randolph	31 min
Dec 23, 9:41 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Greene, Lawrence, Randolph	49 min
Dec 23, 10:46 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay	29 min
Dec 23, 11:02 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Greene, Mississippi	28 min
Dec 23, 11:46 AM CST	River Flood Advisory	MEG	Mississippi	4 days
Dec 23, 12:25 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Craighead	35 min
Dec 23, 12:36 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Greene, Lawrence, Poinsett	24 min
Dec 23, 12:39 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Cross, Poinsett	36 min
Dec 23, 12:59 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Craighead, Greene	46 min
Dec 23, 1:07 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Greene, Mississippi, Poinsett	38 min
Dec 23, 1:33 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Craighead, Greene	57 min
Dec 23, 1:37 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Cross	38 min
Dec 23, 1:42 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Mississippi	33 min
Dec 23, 1:58 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Poinsett	47 min
Dec 23, 2:04 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Cross, St. Francis	41 min
Dec 23, 2:07 PM CST	Tornado Warning	MEG	Cross, St. Francis	13 min
Dec 23, 2:28 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Mississippi, Poinsett	32 min
Dec 23, 2:50 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Mississippi	25 min
Dec 23, 2:53 PM CST	Tornado Warning	MEG	Mississippi	37 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arkansas, 2015 Every flash flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.