Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
334 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 333 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

Busy morning, and the significant weather has not even moved into
the area yet!

Current convection over south central Missouri suprizingly being
handled fairly well with the 12km NAM-WRF. Boundary layer ahead of
this area remains quite saturated and thermal/wind gradient is
actually better over the northeast Arkansas/Missouri BootHeel.
However, both the latest NAM and GFS guidance show a nose of 0-2km
instability nosing in near KPOF (Poplar Bluff Missouri) to just
west of KCGI (near Marble Hill Missouri) between 12-15z (6am-9am
CST). Re-introduced a mention of damaging wind in this Southeast
Missouri Delta region for the potential of increasing wind
momentum from line of convection producing at least marginally
severe wind gusts.

Wind shear in the 0-3km layer upticks across the Missouri
Bootheel region and into the Purchase area of West Kentucky by 18z
(noon). Added a mention of severe in the gridded forecast for
southwest KY shortly before noon. Increasing deep layer (0-6km) of
70-80 knots nose into Southeast Missouri and the Purchase area of
West Kentucky between 18z-21z (noon-3pm CST) per NAM-WRF and would
lead to sharpening updrafts with steeping lapse rates at low
levels. A focused area of severe thunderstorms was added to the
gridded forecast for parts of West Kentucky to suggest higher
potential for damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes. This also
corresponds closely with the SPC 10% or greater Risk area for EF2
or greater tornadic potential. For simplification purposes, kept
this area highlighted from noon to 6 pm CST (18z-24z).

Little significant change in temperatures at this time. With
ample moisture already available due to the antecedent stabilized
conditions (e.g. fog), model guidance may be under-estimating the
moisture pool available for buoyant updrafts. Leaned a little
higher with dewpoints early on (this morning) to reflect that
change.

Dropped any mention of weather during the daytime hours on December
24, but slowly ramped up precipitation from the southeast toward
sunrise Friday morning (Christmas). Main concern will be
persistent rainfall over West Kentucky by Friday night, which may
cause nuisance flooding issues.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

Looks to be shaping up to be a rather wet weekend, especially up
in our northern/western sections, as a stationary front drapes
along the Ohio River Valley and several pieces of mid lvl energy
eject ne along it within deep southwest flow regime. Precipitable
Water values progged to push over 1.5" suggest potential for some
hefty rain amounts along/north of the surface boundary, so where
this boundary sets of will be very important as to who gets the
heaviest rainfall. South of the front, QPF and overall POPs will
drop off fairly quickly, and temps will be unusually warm with
record highs in the lower 70s a good bet.

Models really diverge after the weekend with the handling of a deep
cut-off upper low that will eventually lift north from TX into the
southern Plains. This leads to low confidence forecast for early
next week. There still is a large model spread as to how quickly
this low lifts north into the Plains. Will continue with a
compromise/superblend type solution at this point. Cannot rule out
some severe threat with this system, depending on the track. Right
now the severe risk looks a bit greater south/east of our area, but
will need to monitor with time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1209 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

It is an educated guess as to exactly what will happen with the
cigs/vsbys overnight. As increasing low level winds will tend to
scour out vsby-restricting fog as time goes on, LIFR/IFR cigs will
probably hold on well into the day before rising to MVFR as
showers/tstms, some strong to severe, get going in the daytime. Very
strong south southwesterly winds are expected through the day with
gusts up to 30kts possible. More intense gusts will be possible near
any storms. Some showers are possible after dark with a cold
fropa across the region very late in the 06Z TAF period.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1228 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-241100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1228 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS A LINE MOVES EAST FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE QUAD STATE REGION
TODAY. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH
TORNADO WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. REFER TO THE WATCHES FOR DETAILS.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL FLOOD LOW
LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. GUSTY NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL
ALSO BE A PREVAILING HAZARD.

MINOR FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS AS THEY ARE ISSUED FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OFF AND ON FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
POORLY DRAINED AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS NEXT MONDAY.

MINOR FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
AS THEY ARE ISSUED FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CONTINUED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS APPRECIATED FOR THE ONGOING SEVERE
WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

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