Tornado Warning 29, NWS Paducah, KY

322 
WWUS53 KPAH 231559
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
959 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

MOC035-231608-
/O.CAN.KPAH.TO.W.0029.000000T0000Z-151223T1615Z/
CARTER MO-
959 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EASTERN CARTER COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3699 9103 3705 9091 3705 9073 3700 9073
      3700 9071 3697 9072 3697 9070 3693 9070
      3693 9068 3692 9068 3683 9092
TIME...MOT...LOC 1556Z 241DEG 48KT 3704 9071 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
334 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 333 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

Busy morning, and the significant weather has not even moved into
the area yet!

Current convection over south central Missouri suprizingly being
handled fairly well with the 12km NAM-WRF. Boundary layer ahead of
this area remains quite saturated and thermal/wind gradient is
actually better over the northeast Arkansas/Missouri BootHeel.
However, both the latest NAM and GFS guidance show a nose of 0-2km
instability nosing in near KPOF (Poplar Bluff Missouri) to just
west of KCGI (near Marble Hill Missouri) between 12-15z (6am-9am
CST). Re-introduced a mention of damaging wind in this Southeast
Missouri Delta region for the potential of increasing wind
momentum from line of convection producing at least marginally
severe wind gusts.

Wind shear in the 0-3km layer upticks across the Missouri
Bootheel region and into the Purchase area of West Kentucky by 18z
(noon). Added a mention of severe in the gridded forecast for
southwest KY shortly before noon. Increasing deep layer (0-6km) of
70-80 knots nose into Southeast Missouri and the Purchase area of
West Kentucky between 18z-21z (noon-3pm CST) per NAM-WRF and would
lead to sharpening updrafts with steeping lapse rates at low
levels. A focused area of severe thunderstorms was added to the
gridded forecast for parts of West Kentucky to suggest higher
potential for damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes. This also
corresponds closely with the SPC 10% or greater Risk area for EF2
or greater tornadic potential. For simplification purposes, kept
this area highlighted from noon to 6 pm CST (18z-24z).

Little significant change in temperatures at this time. With
ample moisture already available due to the antecedent stabilized
conditions (e.g. fog), model guidance may be under-estimating the
moisture pool available for buoyant updrafts. Leaned a little
higher with dewpoints early on (this morning) to reflect that
change.

Dropped any mention of weather during the daytime hours on December
24, but slowly ramped up precipitation from the southeast toward
sunrise Friday morning (Christmas). Main concern will be
persistent rainfall over West Kentucky by Friday night, which may
cause nuisance flooding issues.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

Looks to be shaping up to be a rather wet weekend, especially up
in our northern/western sections, as a stationary front drapes
along the Ohio River Valley and several pieces of mid lvl energy
eject ne along it within deep southwest flow regime. Precipitable
Water values progged to push over 1.5" suggest potential for some
hefty rain amounts along/north of the surface boundary, so where
this boundary sets of will be very important as to who gets the
heaviest rainfall. South of the front, QPF and overall POPs will
drop off fairly quickly, and temps will be unusually warm with
record highs in the lower 70s a good bet.

Models really diverge after the weekend with the handling of a deep
cut-off upper low that will eventually lift north from TX into the
southern Plains. This leads to low confidence forecast for early
next week. There still is a large model spread as to how quickly
this low lifts north into the Plains. Will continue with a
compromise/superblend type solution at this point. Cannot rule out
some severe threat with this system, depending on the track. Right
now the severe risk looks a bit greater south/east of our area, but
will need to monitor with time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1209 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

It is an educated guess as to exactly what will happen with the
cigs/vsbys overnight. As increasing low level winds will tend to
scour out vsby-restricting fog as time goes on, LIFR/IFR cigs will
probably hold on well into the day before rising to MVFR as
showers/tstms, some strong to severe, get going in the daytime. Very
strong south southwesterly winds are expected through the day with
gusts up to 30kts possible. More intense gusts will be possible near
any storms. Some showers are possible after dark with a cold
fropa across the region very late in the 06Z TAF period.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
838 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-241100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
838 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY EXPAND AND MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS INCLUDED THE
ENTIRE AREA IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

WITHIN THIS AREA, A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS.
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM POPLAR
BLUFF AND CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI, ONWARD TO EDDYVILLE ILLINOIS,
SOUTH TO AURORA KENTUCKY AND THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES.
SIGNIFICANT, LONG LIVED TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

THE TIME OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM AROUND
NOON...EXTENDING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW NEAR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD COMPLETELY EXIT THE QUAD STATE
REGION BY 8 PM CST.

MINOR FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
AS THEY ARE ISSUED FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OFF AND ON FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
POORLY DRAINED AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

MINOR FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
AS THEY ARE ISSUED FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, ANY SPOTTER
REPORTS OF FLOODING OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE ENCOURAGED AS WELL.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
600 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

MOZ076-086-087-100-107>111-114-231300-
PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-
STODDARD-SCOTT-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...NEW MADRID
600 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS...

SHORTLY BEFORE 6 AM CST...A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST OF ZALMA TO NEAR
BLOOMFIELD MISSOURI, MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AROUND SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN 60 MPH.

THIS LINE SHOULD REACH NEAR A PERRYVILLE AND CAPE GIRARDEAU
MISSOURI LINE BY 630 AM CST.

ISOLATED SMALL HAIL, BETWEEN ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND BEHIND THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
706 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

MOZ107-108-231415-
CARTER-RIPLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN
706 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...GUSTY WINDS NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE INTO WESTERN CARTER AND
RIPLEY COUNTIES BY 8 AM CST...

THE LEADING EDGE OF A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE NEAR A LINE FROM VAN BUREN TO FREMONT MISSOURI LINE BY
8 AM CST.

WINDS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. PERSONS IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF CARTER AND
RIPLEY COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND
BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER QUICKLY.

SMITH