Alert archive / Illinois / Tornado Warnings in 2015

Tornado Warning 33, NWS Paducah, KY

December 23, 2015Johnson County, Illinois

NWS Paducah, KY issued this tornado warning at Dec 23, 2015, 11:53 AM CST for Johnson County, Illinois. It was in force for 18 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Dec 23, 2015, 11:53 AM CST (17:53 UTC)
Expired: Dec 23, 2015, 12:11 PM CST
In force: 18 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Radar indicated
Hail: 0.75 in

County Johnson County, IL

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 36 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Dec 23, 12:03 PM CST	TSTM WND GST 60	1 E Vienna, IL	WINDS ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH. REPORTED BY OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this tornado warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Dec 23, 9:13 AM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 245 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 596 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 194 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 164 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

299 
WFUS53 KPAH 231753
TORPAH
ILC087-231830-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0033.151223T1753Z-151223T1830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1153 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CST
    
* AT 1153 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER VIENNA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE 
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY. 

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
  SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
  SIMPSON AND BELKNAP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3732 8895 3739 8900 3743 8899 3760 8871
      3734 8871 3733 8872 3734 8890
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 239DEG 49KT 3738 8892 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

PS

2 follow-up statements

598 
WWUS53 KPAH 231802
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1202 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

ILC087-231830-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-151223T1830Z/
JOHNSON IL-
1202 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CST FOR EASTERN
JOHNSON COUNTY...
    
AT 1201 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF VIENNA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT 
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS 
         LIKELY. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SIMPSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3748 8885 3760 8871 3740 8871 3738 8874
      3736 8888
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 240DEG 44KT 3742 8881 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

PS

401 
WWUS53 KPAH 231811
SVSPAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1211 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

ILC087-231821-
/O.CAN.KPAH.TO.W.0033.000000T0000Z-151223T1830Z/
JOHNSON IL-
1211 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 3748 8885 3760 8871 3740 8871 3738 8874
      3736 8888
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 239DEG 49KT 3749 8866 

$$

PS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this tornado warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this tornado warning went out at Dec 23, 3:34 AM CST, 8 hours 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 23, 3:34 AM CST, 8 hours 19 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
334 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 333 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

Busy morning, and the significant weather has not even moved into
the area yet!

Current convection over south central Missouri suprizingly being
handled fairly well with the 12km NAM-WRF. Boundary layer ahead of
this area remains quite saturated and thermal/wind gradient is
actually better over the northeast Arkansas/Missouri BootHeel.
However, both the latest NAM and GFS guidance show a nose of 0-2km
instability nosing in near KPOF (Poplar Bluff Missouri) to just
west of KCGI (near Marble Hill Missouri) between 12-15z (6am-9am
CST). Re-introduced a mention of damaging wind in this Southeast
Missouri Delta region for the potential of increasing wind
momentum from line of convection producing at least marginally
severe wind gusts.

Wind shear in the 0-3km layer upticks across the Missouri
Bootheel region and into the Purchase area of West Kentucky by 18z
(noon). Added a mention of severe in the gridded forecast for
southwest KY shortly before noon. Increasing deep layer (0-6km) of
70-80 knots nose into Southeast Missouri and the Purchase area of
West Kentucky between 18z-21z (noon-3pm CST) per NAM-WRF and would
lead to sharpening updrafts with steeping lapse rates at low
levels. A focused area of severe thunderstorms was added to the
gridded forecast for parts of West Kentucky to suggest higher
potential for damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes. This also
corresponds closely with the SPC 10% or greater Risk area for EF2
or greater tornadic potential. For simplification purposes, kept
this area highlighted from noon to 6 pm CST (18z-24z).

Little significant change in temperatures at this time. With
ample moisture already available due to the antecedent stabilized
conditions (e.g. fog), model guidance may be under-estimating the
moisture pool available for buoyant updrafts. Leaned a little
higher with dewpoints early on (this morning) to reflect that
change.

Dropped any mention of weather during the daytime hours on December
24, but slowly ramped up precipitation from the southeast toward
sunrise Friday morning (Christmas). Main concern will be
persistent rainfall over West Kentucky by Friday night, which may
cause nuisance flooding issues.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

Looks to be shaping up to be a rather wet weekend, especially up
in our northern/western sections, as a stationary front drapes
along the Ohio River Valley and several pieces of mid lvl energy
eject ne along it within deep southwest flow regime. Precipitable
Water values progged to push over 1.5" suggest potential for some
hefty rain amounts along/north of the surface boundary, so where
this boundary sets of will be very important as to who gets the
heaviest rainfall. South of the front, QPF and overall POPs will
drop off fairly quickly, and temps will be unusually warm with
record highs in the lower 70s a good bet.

Models really diverge after the weekend with the handling of a deep
cut-off upper low that will eventually lift north from TX into the
southern Plains. This leads to low confidence forecast for early
next week. There still is a large model spread as to how quickly
this low lifts north into the Plains. Will continue with a
compromise/superblend type solution at this point. Cannot rule out
some severe threat with this system, depending on the track. Right
now the severe risk looks a bit greater south/east of our area, but
will need to monitor with time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1209 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

It is an educated guess as to exactly what will happen with the
cigs/vsbys overnight. As increasing low level winds will tend to
scour out vsby-restricting fog as time goes on, LIFR/IFR cigs will
probably hold on well into the day before rising to MVFR as
showers/tstms, some strong to severe, get going in the daytime. Very
strong south southwesterly winds are expected through the day with
gusts up to 30kts possible. More intense gusts will be possible near
any storms. Some showers are possible after dark with a cold
fropa across the region very late in the 06Z TAF period.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DB

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 23, 10:47 AM CST, 1 hour 6 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1047 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-241100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1047 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND AND MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS INCLUDED THE
ENTIRE AREA IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

WITHIN THIS AREA, A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS.
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DEXTER
MISSOURI, VIENNA ILLINOIS, EVANSVILLE AND DALE INDIANA. THIS
MODERATE RISK AREA INCLUDES ALL OF WEST KENTUCKY, AND A SMALL PART
OF EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, AS WELL AS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. TORNADOES WITHIN LINES OF STORMS, AS WELL AS
INDIVIDUAL STRONG STORMS CONTAINING TORNADOES ARE LIKELY IN THIS
AREA, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS MORNING HAVE ALREADY HAD A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. THE STORMS ARE MOVING RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 60 AND 80 MPH.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD COMPLETELY EXIT THE QUAD STATE
REGION BY 8 PM CST.

MINOR FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
AS THEY ARE ISSUED FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OFF AND ON FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
POORLY DRAINED AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS NEXT MONDAY.

MINOR FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
AS THEY ARE ISSUED FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, ANY SPOTTER
REPORTS OF FLOODING OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE ENCOURAGED AS WELL.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 23, 11:16 AM CST, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1116 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW PUXICO             36.94N 90.17W
12/23/2015                   STODDARD           MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN ON HOUSE.

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Dec 23, 11:33 AM CST, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1133 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     TSTM WND DMG     AVA                     37.89N 89.50W
12/23/2015                   JACKSON            IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ALONG HWY 4 AND ALONG DALLAS ROAD NEAR
            MURPHYSBORO.

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Dec 23, 11:40 AM CST, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1140 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 AM     TSTM WND GST     SESSER                  38.09N 89.05W
12/23/2015  E60 MPH          FRANKLIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS ESTIMATED. LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN IN THE COMMUNITY.

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Dec 23, 11:44 AM CST, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1144 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HERRIN                  37.80N 89.03W
12/23/2015                   WILLIAMSON         IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINE DOWN ALONG HERRIN ROAD.

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Dec 23, 11:51 AM CST, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1151 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 AM     TSTM WND GST     SESSER                  38.09N 89.05W
12/23/2015  E60.00 MPH       FRANKLIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS ESTIMATED. LARGE TREE DOWN IN THE COMMUNITY. METAL
            FRAMED BARN COLLAPSED.

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Dec 23, 11:53 AM CST, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1153 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PINCKNEYVILLE           38.08N 89.38W
12/23/2015                   PERRY              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLE SNAPPED AT GROUND LEVEL ON NEW STREET. PORTION
            OF HWY 154 CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED TREES.

&&

SMITTY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 22, 7:07 PM CST	Dense Fog Advisory	PAH	Alexander, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin and 13 more	5 hr
Dec 23, 9:38 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Franklin, Jackson, Perry	22 min
Dec 23, 11:06 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Alexander, Jackson, Perry, Pulaski, Union	39 min
Dec 23, 11:08 AM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Jackson, Perry	37 min
Dec 23, 11:28 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Franklin, Jefferson, Johnson, Union, Williamson	47 min
Dec 23, 11:48 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Hamilton, Saline, Wayne	42 min
Dec 23, 12:08 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Pope	37 min
Dec 23, 12:14 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Edwards, Gallatin, Wayne, White	46 min
Dec 23, 12:25 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Edwards, Wayne	23 min
Dec 23, 12:36 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Massac	54 min
Dec 23, 12:41 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Wabash	64 min
Dec 23, 2:17 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Alexander, Pulaski	43 min
Dec 23, 2:43 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Johnson, Massac, Pope	32 min
Dec 23, 2:55 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Massac, Pope, Pulaski	3 hr
Dec 23, 2:56 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Johnson, Pope	16 min
Dec 23, 3:04 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Massac, Pope	26 min
Dec 23, 3:18 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Pope	27 min
Dec 23, 4:54 PM CST	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	Hardin	3 hr

Nearby

Tornado Warnings in Illinois, 2015 Every tornado warning in 2015 Tornadoes in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.