Alert archive / Illinois / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Paducah, KY

December 23, 2015Wabash County, Illinois

NWS Paducah, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Dec 23, 2015, 12:41 PM CST for Wabash County, Illinois. It was in force for 64 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Dec 23, 2015, 12:41 PM CST (18:41 UTC)
Expired: Dec 23, 2015, 1:45 PM CST
In force: 64 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Wabash County, IL

The radar

The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 23 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Dec 23, 9:13 AM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 200 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 12 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -75 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 465 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 260 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 212 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Dec 23, 3:34 AM CST, 9 hours 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 23, 3:34 AM CST, 9 hours 7 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
334 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 333 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

Busy morning, and the significant weather has not even moved into
the area yet!

Current convection over south central Missouri suprizingly being
handled fairly well with the 12km NAM-WRF. Boundary layer ahead of
this area remains quite saturated and thermal/wind gradient is
actually better over the northeast Arkansas/Missouri BootHeel.
However, both the latest NAM and GFS guidance show a nose of 0-2km
instability nosing in near KPOF (Poplar Bluff Missouri) to just
west of KCGI (near Marble Hill Missouri) between 12-15z (6am-9am
CST). Re-introduced a mention of damaging wind in this Southeast
Missouri Delta region for the potential of increasing wind
momentum from line of convection producing at least marginally
severe wind gusts.

Wind shear in the 0-3km layer upticks across the Missouri
Bootheel region and into the Purchase area of West Kentucky by 18z
(noon). Added a mention of severe in the gridded forecast for
southwest KY shortly before noon. Increasing deep layer (0-6km) of
70-80 knots nose into Southeast Missouri and the Purchase area of
West Kentucky between 18z-21z (noon-3pm CST) per NAM-WRF and would
lead to sharpening updrafts with steeping lapse rates at low
levels. A focused area of severe thunderstorms was added to the
gridded forecast for parts of West Kentucky to suggest higher
potential for damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes. This also
corresponds closely with the SPC 10% or greater Risk area for EF2
or greater tornadic potential. For simplification purposes, kept
this area highlighted from noon to 6 pm CST (18z-24z).

Little significant change in temperatures at this time. With
ample moisture already available due to the antecedent stabilized
conditions (e.g. fog), model guidance may be under-estimating the
moisture pool available for buoyant updrafts. Leaned a little
higher with dewpoints early on (this morning) to reflect that
change.

Dropped any mention of weather during the daytime hours on December
24, but slowly ramped up precipitation from the southeast toward
sunrise Friday morning (Christmas). Main concern will be
persistent rainfall over West Kentucky by Friday night, which may
cause nuisance flooding issues.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

Looks to be shaping up to be a rather wet weekend, especially up
in our northern/western sections, as a stationary front drapes
along the Ohio River Valley and several pieces of mid lvl energy
eject ne along it within deep southwest flow regime. Precipitable
Water values progged to push over 1.5" suggest potential for some
hefty rain amounts along/north of the surface boundary, so where
this boundary sets of will be very important as to who gets the
heaviest rainfall. South of the front, QPF and overall POPs will
drop off fairly quickly, and temps will be unusually warm with
record highs in the lower 70s a good bet.

Models really diverge after the weekend with the handling of a deep
cut-off upper low that will eventually lift north from TX into the
southern Plains. This leads to low confidence forecast for early
next week. There still is a large model spread as to how quickly
this low lifts north into the Plains. Will continue with a
compromise/superblend type solution at this point. Cannot rule out
some severe threat with this system, depending on the track. Right
now the severe risk looks a bit greater south/east of our area, but
will need to monitor with time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1209 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

It is an educated guess as to exactly what will happen with the
cigs/vsbys overnight. As increasing low level winds will tend to
scour out vsby-restricting fog as time goes on, LIFR/IFR cigs will
probably hold on well into the day before rising to MVFR as
showers/tstms, some strong to severe, get going in the daytime. Very
strong south southwesterly winds are expected through the day with
gusts up to 30kts possible. More intense gusts will be possible near
any storms. Some showers are possible after dark with a cold
fropa across the region very late in the 06Z TAF period.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DB

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 23, 12:28 PM CST, 13 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1228 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-241100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1228 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS A LINE MOVES EAST FROM
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE QUAD STATE REGION
TODAY. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH
TORNADO WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. REFER TO THE WATCHES FOR DETAILS.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL FLOOD LOW
LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. GUSTY NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL
ALSO BE A PREVAILING HAZARD.

MINOR FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS AS THEY ARE ISSUED FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OFF AND ON FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
POORLY DRAINED AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS NEXT MONDAY.

MINOR FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
AS THEY ARE ISSUED FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CONTINUED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS APPRECIATED FOR THE ONGOING SEVERE
WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 23, 12:10 PM CST, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1210 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E VIENNA              37.41N 88.87W
12/23/2015  M60 MPH          JOHNSON            IL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WINDS ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH. REPORTED BY OFF DUTY NWS
            EMPLOYEE.

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Dec 23, 12:12 PM CST, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1212 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1129 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 S CARBONDALE          37.65N 89.22W
12/23/2015  M60 MPH          JACKSON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED NEAR UNITY POINT SCHOOL.

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Dec 23, 12:13 PM CST, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1213 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     GLENDALE                37.41N 88.64W
12/23/2015                   POPE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAIN SPOTTER OBSERVED FUNNEL CLOUD BETWEEN THE
            COMMUNITIES OF SIMPSON AND GLENDALE.

&&

SMITTY

Local storm report, Dec 23, 12:29 PM CST, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1229 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1229 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST PRAIRIE            36.78N 89.38W
12/23/2015                   MISSISSIPPI        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER LINE DOWN BLOCKING ROAD.

&&

SMITTY

Special weather statement, Dec 23, 12:36 PM CST, 5 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1236 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

ILZ090-094-KYZ003>007-231930-
POPE IL-MASSAC IL-CARLISLE KY-LIVINGSTON KY-BALLARD KY-GRAVES KY-
MCCRACKEN KY-
1236 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MASSAC...SOUTHERN POPE...NORTHERN
GRAVES...LIVINGSTON...MCCRACKEN...CARLISLE AND BALLARD COUNTIES
UNTIL 130 PM CST...

AT 1235 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW
COLUMBIA TO NEAR WEST PADUCAH TO NEAR BARDWELL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 55 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PADUCAH...METROPOLIS...LA CENTER...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...REIDLAND...
LONE OAK...BROOKPORT...BARLOW...GOLCONDA...LOVELACEVILLE...WEST
PADUCAH...WOODLAWN-OAKDALE...JOY...HENDRON...MASSAC...BURNA...
LEDBETTER...NEW COLUMBIA AND KEVIL.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3718 8902 3734 8873 3734 8871 3735 8871
      3742 8848 3742 8840 3740 8835 3739 8831
      3738 8830 3735 8830 3704 8845 3702 8848
      3694 8849 3679 8907 3679 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 239DEG 48KT 3726 8867 3711 8883 3687 8906

Local storm report, Dec 23, 12:38 PM CST, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1238 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CAPE GIRARDEAU          37.31N 89.55W
12/23/2015                   CAPE GIRARDEAU     MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LATE REPORT. SEVERAL TREE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

SMITTY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 22, 7:07 PM CST	Dense Fog Advisory	PAH	Ballard, Caldwell, Carlisle, Crittenden, Daviess, Fulton and 11 more	5 hr
Dec 23, 12:36 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Ballard, Carlisle, McCracken	54 min
Dec 23, 1:26 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman	64 min
Dec 23, 1:32 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Fulton	58 min
Dec 23, 2:17 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Ballard	43 min
Dec 23, 2:24 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Ballard, Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman	51 min
Dec 23, 2:43 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Caldwell, Crittenden	15 min
Dec 23, 2:53 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Hopkins, Webster	37 min
Dec 23, 2:55 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Ballard, Calloway, Carlisle, Fulton, Graves, Hickman and 3 more	3 hr
Dec 23, 3:04 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	McCracken	26 min
Dec 23, 3:15 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Calloway, Graves, Marshall	30 min
Dec 23, 3:18 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Livingston, McCracken, Marshall	27 min
Dec 23, 3:18 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Daviess, Henderson, McLean	27 min
Dec 23, 3:30 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Caldwell, Crittenden, Lyon	31 min
Dec 23, 3:36 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Daviess	24 min
Dec 23, 3:48 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Caldwell, Crittenden, Hopkins, Webster	42 min
Dec 23, 4:13 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Daviess, McLean	92 min
Dec 23, 4:21 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	McLean	24 min
Dec 23, 4:22 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Calloway, Graves, Marshall	26 min
Dec 23, 4:28 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Daviess	47 min
Dec 23, 4:40 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	PAH	Caldwell, Christian, Hopkins, Lyon, Muhlenberg, Todd and 1 more	95 min
Dec 23, 4:47 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Trigg	28 min
Dec 23, 4:54 PM CST	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	Caldwell, Christian, Crittenden, Hopkins, Livingston, Lyon and 5 more	3 hr
Dec 23, 5:00 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Caldwell, Christian, Hopkins, Muhlenberg	45 min
Dec 23, 5:14 PM CST	Areal Flood Advisory	PAH	Daviess	3 hr
Dec 23, 5:15 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Calloway, Trigg	30 min
Dec 23, 5:28 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Christian	32 min
Dec 23, 5:46 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Caldwell, Christian, Hopkins, Muhlenberg, Todd, Trigg	44 min
Dec 23, 5:55 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Christian	35 min
Dec 23, 9:38 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Franklin, Jackson, Perry	22 min
Dec 23, 11:06 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Alexander, Jackson, Perry, Pulaski, Union	39 min
Dec 23, 11:08 AM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Jackson, Perry	37 min
Dec 23, 11:28 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Franklin, Jefferson, Johnson, Union, Williamson	47 min
Dec 23, 11:48 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Hamilton, Saline, Wayne	42 min
Dec 23, 11:53 AM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Johnson	18 min
Dec 23, 12:08 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Pope	37 min
Dec 23, 12:14 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Edwards, Gallatin, Wayne, White	46 min
Dec 23, 12:25 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Edwards, Wayne	23 min
Dec 23, 2:43 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Johnson, Massac, Pope	32 min
Dec 23, 2:56 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Johnson, Pope	16 min
Dec 23, 7:35 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Carter	25 min
Dec 23, 9:21 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Carter, Ripley	39 min
Dec 23, 9:46 AM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Carter	13 min
Dec 23, 9:51 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Butler, Carter, Ripley, Wayne	54 min
Dec 23, 9:53 AM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Wayne	37 min
Dec 23, 10:24 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Stoddard	36 min
Dec 23, 10:30 AM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Bollinger	17 min
Dec 23, 10:44 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Cape Girardeau, Perry, Scott, Stoddard	46 min
Dec 23, 2:02 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Mississippi, Scott	28 min
Dec 23, 2:34 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Mississippi	26 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.