Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
152 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 133 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

Severe threat continues. Impressive wind fields aloft provide deep
layer shear here...but mucape field/axis of greatest instability
does shift eastward by 00Z Thu. Front/upper trof passage occurs
shortly thereafter. Therefore, svr threat/bulk of pcpn will occur
remainder of pm into early evening hours, with rain chance
extending a few hours longer but storm/svr threat diminishing
markedly after 7 or 8 pm. Will keep close monitor on going svr
developments and may even clear some counties in the north/west by
press time.

After 1st period, deep swly flow aloft keeps warm advection
pattern in place...so unseasonably warm temps continue. High
pressure will provide a nice Christmas Eve forecast, but moves off
to the northeast over the upper Ohio river valley by Christmas
day, as warm sector return surge begins even late Thu night. This
is where the models diverge...with the Euro and the blend
returning in earnest whilest the new 12z GFS suggests a largely
dry Christmas day. We'll split the diff as much as we can on the
collab pic, with chance pops incoming Christmas day and spreading
over the area more completely Christmas night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 133 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

Despite high weekend pops, there may be a relative lull in overall
pcpn action after we warm sector Saturday...at least until the
boundary sags back over the FA during the course of the day Sunday
as the primary upper Low and attendant surface Low start to make
their ejection from TX toward MO. The system is winding/occluding
itself as this occurs, so expect a very wet Sunday night into
Monday in the high PW environ. There is some low level mucape to
work with, so wouldnt rule out isold svr, but think primary threat
will still be heavy rain/flooding until the system starts to fill
itself/lift out later Monday night-Tuesday. Impressive cumulative storm
total qpf of 3 to 6 inches is possible by then.

It takes until Tuesday and beyond for significant height
falls/upper pattern shift to occur to support cooler temps. Expect
generally 60s/50s to prevail both daytime/nighttime til then,
after which, we'll transition to 40s/30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 133 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

Convection this pm means IFR to LIFR cigs/vsbys for KEVV/KOWB.
It's possible KCGI/KPAH could experience another storm with
similar restrictions. Severe weather with high wind gusts are
possible until about 00Z-02Z. After that, we look to see continued
restricted cigs/vsbys with rain for a few hours, with gradually
improving conditions late tonight-tmrw morning in the wake of the
system's passage.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
307 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-241100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
307 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS A LINE...NOW EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH TORNADO WATCHES STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. REFER TO THE
WATCHES FOR DETAILS.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL FLOOD LOW
LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. GUSTY NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL
ALSO BE A PREVAILING HAZARD.

MINOR FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS AS THEY ARE ISSUED FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OFF AND ON FROM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY. THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
POORLY DRAINED AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS NEXT MONDAY.

MINOR FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
AS THEY ARE ISSUED FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CONTINUED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS APPRECIATED FOR THE ONGOING
SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

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