Alert archive / Tennessee / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015

Flash Flood Warning 108, NWS Memphis, TN

December 23, 20156 counties in Tennessee

NWS Memphis, TN issued this flash flood warning at Dec 23, 2015, 4:27 PM CST for 6 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Dec 23, 2015, 4:27 PM CST (22:27 UTC)
Expired: Dec 23, 2015, 7:30 PM CST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Carroll County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Henry County, TN, Obion County, TN, Weakley County, TN

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 343 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -24 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 568 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 331 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 353 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

046 
WGUS54 KMEG 232227
FFWMEG
TNC017-045-053-079-131-183-240130-
/O.NEW.KMEG.FF.W.0108.151223T2227Z-151224T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
427 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN HENRY COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
  WEAKLEY COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
  EASTERN OBION COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
  GIBSON COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN DYER COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 730 PM CST

* AT 426 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
  OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  MARTIN...UNION CITY...MILAN...MCKENZIE...TRENTON...FULTON...
  DRESDEN...SOUTH FULTON...DYER...GREENFIELD...GLEASON...KENTON...
  RUTHERFORD...BRADFORD...SHARON...ATWOOD...COTTAGE GROVE...LATHAM...
  PALMERSVILLE AND TREZEVANT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3589 8860 3593 8913 3597 8914 3600 8919
      3594 8923 3594 8929 3650 8899 3650 8826

$$

1 follow-up statement

303 
WGUS74 KMEG 240006
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
606 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

TNC017-045-053-079-131-183-240015-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0108.000000T0000Z-151224T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HENRY TN-CARROLL TN-WEAKLEY TN-OBION TN-GIBSON TN-DYER TN-
606 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WESTERN HENRY...NORTHWESTERN
CARROLL...WEAKLEY...EASTERN OBION...GIBSON AND SOUTHEASTERN DYER
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT.

LAT...LON 3589 8860 3593 8913 3597 8914 3600 8919
      3594 8923 3594 8929 3650 8899 3650 8826

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Dec 23, 3:23 PM CST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 23, 3:23 PM CST, 1 hour 4 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
323 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A LINEAR CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING ACROSS E AR AND MO BOOTHEEL APPROACHING THE MS RVR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDE THE CLUSTER OVER
WEST TENNESSEE.

EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE FROM CLUSTER
OF STORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF TORNADOES CONTINUING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40 THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATER IN THE
EVENING...SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SHIFT FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND
DECREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL JUST S AND E OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY THEN MOVE NORTHWARD AS A STRONG WARM FRONT ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY FROM THE STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ON CHRISTMAS BUT BE MORE
ELEVATED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR.

THE UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS THE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE
NORTH. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
EITHER A COLD FRONT OR OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE WEST TO MOVE
QUICKLY INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY DEPENDING WHICH
MODEL SOLUTION IS CORRECT. A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.

A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE MORE SEASONABLY COOLER AIRMASS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE BEYOND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...SPREADING OVER THE AREA IS
THE CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI LATER TONIGHT THE RISK FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE AT TUP.

 BELLES

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 23, 7:04 AM CST, 9 hours 23 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
704 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-241515-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
704 AM CST WED DEC 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID SOUTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME STRONG ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE TIME OF
GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 11 AM CST
AND 11 PM CST.

RESIDENTS OF THE MID SOUTH AND TRAVELERS COMING THROUGH THE AREA
FOR THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY ARE STRONGLY URGED TO REMAIN WEATHER
AWARE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE PREPARED TO QUICKLY TAKE APPROPRIATE
SAFETY PRECAUTIONS IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN BETWEEN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE
WEATHER OPERATIONS.

CJC

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 23, 2:25 PM CST, 2 hours 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
225 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 NE HAYTI              36.32N 89.63W
12/23/2015  E60 MPH          PEMISCOT           MO   PUBLIC

&&

JEB

Local storm report, Dec 23, 2:47 PM CST, 1 hour 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
247 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     HAIL             LAKE CITY               35.82N 90.45W
12/23/2015  E1.75 INCH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   PUBLIC

&&

JEB

Local storm report, Dec 23, 3:09 PM CST, 1 hour 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
309 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     TORNADO          5 S CLARKSDALE          34.13N 90.58W
12/23/2015                   COAHOMA            MS   STORM CHASER

            FROM VIDEO

&&

JEB

Local storm report, Dec 23, 4:09 PM CST, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
409 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             2 E DYERSBURG           36.04N 89.34W
12/23/2015  E1.00 INCH       DYER               TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ON EAST SIDE OF
            DYERSBURG.

&&

AJC

Local storm report, Dec 23, 4:10 PM CST, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
410 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             BARTLETT                35.22N 89.84W
12/23/2015  E0.50 INCH       SHELBY             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JEB

Local storm report, Dec 23, 4:14 PM CST, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
414 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S CLARKSDALE          34.19N 90.58W
12/23/2015                   COAHOMA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT LEAST 15 HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED JUST
            SOUTH OF CLARKSDALE. TIME IS RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

AJC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 22, 10:01 PM CST	River Flood Advisory	MEG	Decatur, Hardin	4 days
Dec 23, 11:46 AM CST	River Flood Advisory	MEG	Dyer, Lake, Lauderdale	4 days
Dec 23, 2:04 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lake, Obion	41 min
Dec 23, 2:49 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Dyer, Lake, Obion	3 hr
Dec 23, 2:50 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Dyer	25 min
Dec 23, 2:53 PM CST	Tornado Warning	MEG	Dyer	37 min
Dec 23, 3:51 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Fayette, Shelby, Tipton	24 min
Dec 23, 4:10 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Fayette, Hardeman, Haywood, Tipton	35 min
Dec 23, 4:18 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crockett, Gibson, Weakley	27 min
Dec 23, 4:21 PM CST	Tornado Warning	MEG	Crockett, Gibson, Weakley	24 min
Dec 23, 4:33 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Carroll, Crockett, Gibson, Haywood, Henderson, Madison	42 min
Dec 23, 4:45 PM CST	Tornado Warning	MEG	Gibson, Henry, Weakley	45 min
Dec 23, 4:56 PM CST	Tornado Warning EmergencyTornado observedCatastrophic damage threat	MEG	Hardeman, McNairy	49 min
Dec 23, 5:10 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Benton, Henry, Weakley	35 min
Dec 23, 5:31 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Chester, Decatur, Hardin, Henderson, McNairy	44 min
Dec 23, 5:32 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Chester, Henderson, Madison	3 hr
Dec 23, 5:40 PM CST	Tornado Warning	MEG	Decatur, Hardin, McNairy	35 min
Dec 23, 5:55 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Benton, Carroll, Decatur, Henderson	23 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Tennessee, 2015 Every flash flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.