Alert archive / Arkansas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015

Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Little Rock, AR

May 17, 201512 counties in Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this flash flood warning at May 17, 2015, 8:31 AM CDT for 12 counties in Arkansas. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 17, 2015, 8:31 AM CDT (13:31 UTC)
Expired: May 17, 2015, 11:30 AM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Little Rock, AR
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Baxter County, AR, Boone County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Marion County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Newton County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Yell County, AR

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 1.5 hours before the alert went out and 313 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1208 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 565 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 144 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 169 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.8
Supercell composite: 6.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 16, 6:41 PM CDT, 13 hours 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 16, 6:41 PM CDT, 13 hours 50 minutes before

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Hazardous weather outlook, May 16, 2:20 PM CDT, 18 hours 11 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
220 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-171000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
220 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS FROM OKLAHOMA. STORMS WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS THEY ARRIVE...SO ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE ISOLATED.
ONE TO TWO INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
WEST...AND THIS MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN ON SUNDAY...AND WILL DRIFT
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. SURROUNDING THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN A
NEARLY SATURATED GROUND...SOME FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR HIGH WATER PROBLEMS IS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THERE WILL BE A WINDOW...IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RIVERS MAY GO UP IN PARTS OF THE REGION DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
RAIN ACTUALLY FALLS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING. SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY GIVEN DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SOUTHWEST WIND ALOFT WILL DRIVE STORM SYSTEMS TOWARD THE
STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT WITH
THE STALLED FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE HIT AND MISS
PRECIPITATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ISOLATED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

55

The office that day

Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 16, 7:02 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	White	28 min
May 16, 7:27 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LZK	White	2 hr
May 17, 2:23 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	LZK	Baxter, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland, Conway and 20 more	32 hr
May 17, 2:28 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Boone, Newton	57 min
May 17, 3:21 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LZK	Boone, Johnson, Logan, Marion, Newton, Polk and 2 more	5 hr
May 17, 3:29 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LZK	Polk, Scott	5 hr
May 17, 3:54 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Johnson, Logan	46 min
May 17, 4:38 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Johnson, Pope	32 min
May 17, 4:46 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Johnson, Newton, Pope, Searcy	44 min
May 17, 5:07 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Yell	28 min
May 17, 5:32 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LZK	Johnson, Logan, Montgomery, Newton, Polk, Pope and 3 more	3 hr
May 17, 7:01 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Faulkner	29 min
May 17, 7:38 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Faulkner, Pulaski, Saline	47 min
May 17, 8:37 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LZK	Randolph	6 days
May 17, 8:53 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LZK	Prairie	11 days
May 17, 3:12 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LZK	Yell	70 hr
May 17, 5:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Woodruff	23 min
May 17, 5:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Monroe, Woodruff	47 min
May 17, 6:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Monroe	25 min
May 17, 6:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Arkansas	27 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arkansas, 2015 Every flash flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.