Alert archive / Arkansas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015

Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Little Rock, AR

May 16, 2015White County, Arkansas

NWS Little Rock, AR issued this flash flood warning at May 16, 2015, 7:27 PM CDT for White County, Arkansas. It was in force for 2 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 16, 2015, 7:27 PM CDT (00:27 UTC)
Expired: May 16, 2015, 9:30 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: NWS Little Rock, AR
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

County White County, AR

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 260 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1727 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -4 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1056 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 127 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 218 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.4
Supercell composite: 11.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 16, 6:41 PM CDT, 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 16, 6:41 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

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Hazardous weather outlook, May 16, 2:20 PM CDT, 5 hours 7 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
220 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-171000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
220 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS FROM OKLAHOMA. STORMS WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS THEY ARRIVE...SO ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE ISOLATED.
ONE TO TWO INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
WEST...AND THIS MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN ON SUNDAY...AND WILL DRIFT
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. SURROUNDING THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN A
NEARLY SATURATED GROUND...SOME FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR HIGH WATER PROBLEMS IS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THERE WILL BE A WINDOW...IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

RIVERS MAY GO UP IN PARTS OF THE REGION DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
RAIN ACTUALLY FALLS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING. SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY GIVEN DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT. A SOUTHWEST WIND ALOFT WILL DRIVE STORM SYSTEMS TOWARD THE
STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND THE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT WITH
THE STALLED FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE HIT AND MISS
PRECIPITATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ISOLATED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

55

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 16, 1:46 PM CDT, 5 hours 41 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
146 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ARZ022-023-031-161910-
CONWAY AR-POPE AR-VAN BUREN AR-
146 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN VAN BUREN...EASTERN
POPE AND NORTHERN CONWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 147 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ATKINS...OR 11 MILES EAST OF RUSSELLVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  JERUSALEM...          HAPPY BEND...         CLEVELAND...
  BROCK CREEK LAKE...   BLICK...              ATKINS...
  ECONOMY...            COGLESVILLE...        APPLETON...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 91 AND 96.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3552 9295 3549 9275 3542 9264 3520 9295
      3528 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 223DEG 17KT 3527 9294

55

Special weather statement, May 16, 3:36 PM CDT, 3 hours 51 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
336 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ARZ068-069-162105-
BRADLEY AR-DREW AR-
336 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DREW AND CENTRAL BRADLEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR INGALLS...OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF WARREN...
MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LANARK...             INGALLS...            HILO...
  HERMITAGE...          VICK...               SUMPTER...
  MARSDEN...            FARMVILLE...          CARMEL...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3363 9226 3358 9191 3328 9211 3331 9228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 202DEG 22KT 3340 9217

226

Special weather statement, May 16, 5:53 PM CDT, 1 hour 34 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
553 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ARZ032-043-044-162320-
FAULKNER AR-PULASKI AR-SALINE AR-
553 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SALINE...PULASKI AND
SOUTHWESTERN FAULKNER COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 551 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES EAST OF LAKE
NORRELL TO DOWNTOWN LITTLE ROCK...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WEST LITTLE ROCK...   SW LITTLE ROCK...     SHERWOOD...
  N LITTLE ROCK ARPT... NORTH LITTLE ROCK...  MAUMELLE...
  LITTLE ROCK AFB...    LAKE MAUMELLE...      JACKSONVILLE...
  DOWNTOWN LITTLE ROCK...                     SYLVAN HILLS...
  SWEET HOME...         ROLAND...             PROTHRO JUNCTION...
  PINNACLE MTN...       OTTER CREEK...        OLMSTEAD...
  MORGAN...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 131 AND 142.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 136 AND 161.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 430 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 12.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 440 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 14.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 530 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 2.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 630 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 7.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN!

LAT...LON 3468 9214 3464 9276 3491 9272 3491 9265
      3494 9264 3494 9255 3496 9255 3500 9207
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 206DEG 22KT 3473 9260 3475 9228

226

Special weather statement, May 16, 6:51 PM CDT, 36 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Little Rock, AR issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 16, 7:02 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	White	28 min
May 17, 2:23 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	LZK	Baxter, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland, Conway and 20 more	32 hr
May 17, 2:28 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Boone, Newton	57 min
May 17, 3:21 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LZK	Boone, Johnson, Logan, Marion, Newton, Polk and 2 more	5 hr
May 17, 3:29 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LZK	Polk, Scott	5 hr
May 17, 3:54 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Johnson, Logan	46 min
May 17, 4:38 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Johnson, Pope	32 min
May 17, 4:46 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Johnson, Newton, Pope, Searcy	44 min
May 17, 5:07 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Yell	28 min
May 17, 5:32 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LZK	Johnson, Logan, Montgomery, Newton, Polk, Pope and 3 more	3 hr
May 17, 7:01 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Faulkner	29 min
May 17, 7:38 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Faulkner, Pulaski, Saline	47 min
May 17, 8:31 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	LZK	Baxter, Boone, Johnson, Logan, Marion, Montgomery and 6 more	3 hr
May 17, 8:37 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LZK	Randolph	6 days
May 17, 8:53 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	LZK	Prairie	11 days
May 17, 3:12 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	LZK	Yell	70 hr
May 17, 5:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Woodruff	23 min
May 17, 5:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LZK	Monroe, Woodruff	47 min
May 17, 6:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Monroe	25 min
May 17, 6:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LZK	Arkansas	27 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arkansas, 2015 Every flash flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.