Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015
Mesoscale Discussion 821
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 28, 2015, 10:37 AM CDT for 10 counties in Arkansas; LeFlore County, McCurtain County, Sequoyah County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 53 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 28, 2015, 10:37 AM CDT (15:37 UTC)
- Expired
- May 28, 2015, 11:30 AM CDT
- In force
- 53 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Howard County, AR, Logan County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, LeFlore County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK
The radar
The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 51 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 3.6 hours before the alert went out and 234 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1203 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -27 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 811 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 64 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 76 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
822
ACUS11 KWNS 281538
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281537
ARZ000-OKZ000-281630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0821
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AR...FAR ERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281537Z - 281630Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY A
MCS MOVING INTO WRN AR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. A WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG-LIVED MCS HAS INTENSIFIED ACROSS SERN/E-CNTRL
OK...WITH STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS LIKELY ACCOMPANYING PARTS
OF THE LINE. A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE DOWNSHEAR FROM
THE MCS...BUT VWP DATA FROM LIT SUGGESTS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS
WITH EWD EXTENT INTO CNTRL AR. THE THREAT FOR SVR WINDS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO EXTEND TOO FAR EAST INTO AR...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/28/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 35609365 34549347 33769384 33679447 33899502 34449502
35249505 35729484 35899392 35609365SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2:50 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Caddo, Carter, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin, Grady and 11 more | 2 hr |
| May 28, 2:18 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Beaver, Cimarron, Texas | 7 hr |
| May 28, 2:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bryan, Carter, Coal, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin and 9 more | 94 min |
| May 28, 3:26 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland, Comanche, Cotton and 13 more | 8 hr |
| May 28, 5:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Cimarron, Harper, Texas | 87 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.