Flash Flood Warning 119, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
823 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

.UPDATE...

A LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HERE AND
THERE...IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE ARKANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER
AS OF 8PM. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION AND CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS ARE FAVORING A NOTABLY SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS
LINE OF CONVECTION. AS SUCH...REVAMPED THE POP GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS SLOWER TIMING WHICH IS EVEN SLOWER THAN THE FORECAST UPDATE
SENT OUT EARLIER THIS EVENING. DO NOT HAVE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 50
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES MAKING IT TO THE LITTLE ROCK METRO AREA
BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT WILL HAVE PROLONGED LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL
POPS IN THE WEST.

LEFT THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AS IS FOR NOW SINCE IT LOOKS TO BE
IN GOOD SHAPE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015/

AVIATION...
FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THE LATEST THINKING WITH REGARD TO THE
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION SHIELD...FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT.
LIFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 12Z.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

HAVE CONTINUED TO SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY AROUND THE STATE
TODAY...WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED ACROSS EXTREME SE
ARKANSAS. BREEZY SE WINDS ARE BEING SEEN AROUND THE STATE...AND
TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

HAVE BEGUN TO SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POP UP AROUND THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ACTUALLY SHOWING SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...HOWEVER SB
CAPE VALUES ARE STILL 500 J/KG OR LESS. LIMITED SB CAPE COMBINED
WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.

HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO ROUNDS OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...WITH THE FIRST ROUND FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE HIRES AND MORE COARSE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECPITATION FURTHER TO THE WEST. IN FACT THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAS MUCH OF ARKANSAS MISSING OUT
COMPLETELY ON THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. ALSO OF
CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT
ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...AS WINDS SHOULD BE JUST BELOW LAKE WIND
CRITERIA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM OVERNIGHT...WITH READINGS DROPPING VERY
LITTLE. MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL SEE SUNDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES OCCUR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BE NEAR DIURNAL AS THIS SYSTEM HAS
SLOWED QUITE A BIT. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
EARLY MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST TO ROUND
OUT THE SHORT TERM AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ARKANSAS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A NEW STORM SYS WL BE PASSING WELL N OF AR ON WED...WITH A SWD
TRAILING CDFNT PUSHING E OF THE FA. A FEW SHOWERS WL LINGER OVR SERN
AR EARLY WED...OTHERWISE COOLER AND DRIER CONDS WL PREVAIL.

A WEAK UPR LVL SYSTEM WL TRACK EWD ACRS THE AREA THU NGT AND EARLY
FRI...WITH JUST SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING IT. TEMPS WL
BEGIN TO SLOLY MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES
SHIFTS EWD...WITH LGT S/SWLY WINDS RETURNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     72  65  70  46 /  10  40 100  60
CAMDEN AR         77  67  69  44 /  20  50 100  20
HARRISON AR       70  63  65  42 /  20 100 100  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  67  68  44 /  20  80 100  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  66  69  45 /  10  50  90  40
MONTICELLO AR     77  68  72  48 /  10  20 100  40
MOUNT IDA AR      74  66  68  42 /  20 100 100  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  71  63  69  44 /  10  80 100  50
NEWPORT AR        72  64  71  47 /  10  20 100  60
PINE BLUFF AR     75  66  71  46 /  10  30 100  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  66  67  43 /  20 100 100  30
SEARCY AR         72  65  70  44 /  10  40 100  50
STUTTGART AR      73  66  71  47 /  10  20 100  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
620 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-131100-
BOONE-MARION-BAXTER-FULTON-SHARP-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE-IZARD-
INDEPENDENCE-JOHNSON-POPE-VAN BUREN-CLEBURNE-JACKSON-LOGAN-CONWAY-
FAULKNER-WHITE-WOODRUFF-SCOTT-YELL-PERRY-POLK-MONTGOMERY-GARLAND-
SALINE-PULASKI-LONOKE-PRAIRIE-MONROE-PIKE-CLARK-HOT SPRING-GRANT-
JEFFERSON-ARKANSAS-DALLAS-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-DESHA-OUACHITA-CALHOUN-
BRADLEY-DREW-
620 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON AREA TRIBUTARIES...ESPECIALLY THE
CACHE...LOWER WHITE...AND OUACHITA RIVERS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SOME AREA RIVERS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO ARKANSAS.

AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AND RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH
THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF.

AS FAR AS RAINFALL...WIDESPREAD ONE TO THREE INCH AMOUNTS ARE
IN THE FORECAST. LOCAL TOTALS COULD EXCEED FOUR INCHES IN THE
WEST...MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS.

GIVEN THIS MUCH RAIN IN THE WEST...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
CONCERN. RIVERS WILL BE ON THE RISE ONCE AGAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED DURING
THIS UPCOMING EVENT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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