Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ALL SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE GENERALLY UNSETTLED
PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...WILL
SIMPLY BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION STATING TO POP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND WILL
LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. EARLIER STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE FEW STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AT THIS TIME HAVE
BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS JUST UNDER 1.5 INCHES BUT
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEPING MOIST
AIR IN PLACE THROUGHOUT PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES AT THIS MOMENT...MAKES AN EASTWARD PUSH. TROUGH WILL
ONLY REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONT FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TIME FRAME.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW
WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCES ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE STRONGEST OF THE WAVES MOVES THROUGH
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA AND WILL GO A TITLE BELOW GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DURING THE
LONG TERM. LOCALLY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER ARKANSAS TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS IT BECOMES CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS THE NRN TIER
STATES. WITH A TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW ATOP ARKANSAS AND A MOIST AIR MASS
AT THE SURFACE...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT MID TO UPPER 80S WILL CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  84  68  83 /  30  40  30  60
CAMDEN AR         69  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
HARRISON AR       64  81  65  80 /  30  40  40  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    69  84  69  83 /  30  40  40  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  69  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  60
MONTICELLO AR     71  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  40
MOUNT IDA AR      68  83  68  82 /  30  40  40  60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  65  82  66  81 /  30  40  40  60
NEWPORT AR        68  85  69  84 /  30  40  30  60
PINE BLUFF AR     70  85  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  84  68  82 /  30  40  40  60
SEARCY AR         68  85  68  84 /  30  40  30  60
STUTTGART AR      70  86  69  85 /  30  40  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64