Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 533

November 5, 201538 counties in Arkansas; McCurtain County, Oklahoma; 7 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 5, 2015, 4:00 PM CST for 38 counties in Arkansas; McCurtain County, Oklahoma; 7 counties in Texas. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 5, 2015, 4:00 PM CST (22:00 UTC)
Expired
Nov 5, 2015, 9:00 PM CST
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
0.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 46 counties

Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Clark County, AR, Conway County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Izard County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Miller County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Newton County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Washington County, AR, Yell County, AR, McCurtain County, OK, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Morris County, TX, Red River County, TX, Titus County, TX

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

7 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 5, 4:40 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSABenton, Washington35 min
Nov 5, 4:54 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSABenton36 min
Nov 5, 5:28 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACrawford, Sebastian47 min
Nov 5, 6:05 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACrawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian, Washington25 min
Nov 5, 7:08 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLogan, Scott37 min
Nov 5, 7:12 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSASebastian33 min
Nov 5, 8:02 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVSevier58 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 200 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2015-11-05Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2015-11-05The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 260 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
884 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
260 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
248 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

482 
WWUS20 KWNS 052156
SEL3  
SPC WW 052156
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-060300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 533
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  WESTNER AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
  FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
  NORTHEAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
  900 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

SUMMARY...SQUALL LINE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT MAY
FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE...EXPECTED TO POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE  RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.

PARTS OF WW 532 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI TO COVER SIMILAR THREAT IN THAT REGION.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
FLIPPIN ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF PARIS TEXAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 531...WW 532...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 5, 3:32 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Conway, Crawford and 25 more88 min
Nov 5, 5:55 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrawford, Franklin, Logan, Madison, Polk, Scott and 3 more2 hr
Nov 4, 6:35 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Ellis, Harper, Texas2 hr
Nov 5, 7:50 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche, Cotton, Grady and 4 more115 min
Nov 5, 10:48 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Carter, Coal, Garvin, Hughes and 13 more87 min
Nov 5, 12:06 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 41 more8 hr
Nov 5, 2:17 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Coal, Hughes, Johnston and 5 more88 min
Nov 5, 3:17 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCraig, Nowata, Ottawa118 min
Nov 5, 7:20 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBandera, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell and 14 more2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2015Tornado Watches in Texas, 2015Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.