Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2015
Tornado Watch 533
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 5, 2015, 4:00 PM CST for 38 counties in Arkansas; McCurtain County, Oklahoma; 7 counties in Texas. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 5, 2015, 4:00 PM CST (22:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 5, 2015, 9:00 PM CST
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 0.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 46 counties
Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Clark County, AR, Conway County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Izard County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Miller County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Newton County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Washington County, AR, Yell County, AR, McCurtain County, OK, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Morris County, TX, Red River County, TX, Titus County, TX
The radar
The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 30%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 30%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 60%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 5%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 80%
Warnings issued inside it
7 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 4:40 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Benton, Washington | 35 min |
| Nov 5, 4:54 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Benton | 36 min |
| Nov 5, 5:28 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Crawford, Sebastian | 47 min |
| Nov 5, 6:05 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian, Washington | 25 min |
| Nov 5, 7:08 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Logan, Scott | 37 min |
| Nov 5, 7:12 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Sebastian | 33 min |
| Nov 5, 8:02 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Sevier | 58 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 200 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 884 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 46 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 260 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 248 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
482 WWUS20 KWNS 052156 SEL3 SPC WW 052156 ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-060300- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 533 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 355 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTNER AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL 900 PM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SUMMARY...SQUALL LINE IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE...EXPECTED TO POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. PARTS OF WW 532 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO COVER SIMILAR THREAT IN THAT REGION. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF FLIPPIN ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF PARIS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 531...WW 532... AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045. ...CORFIDI
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 3:32 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Conway, Crawford and 25 more | 88 min |
| Nov 5, 5:55 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crawford, Franklin, Logan, Madison, Polk, Scott and 3 more | 2 hr |
| Nov 4, 6:35 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaver, Ellis, Harper, Texas | 2 hr |
| Nov 5, 7:50 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche, Cotton, Grady and 4 more | 115 min |
| Nov 5, 10:48 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Coal, Garvin, Hughes and 13 more | 87 min |
| Nov 5, 12:06 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adair, Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 41 more | 8 hr |
| Nov 5, 2:17 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Coal, Hughes, Johnston and 5 more | 88 min |
| Nov 5, 3:17 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Craig, Nowata, Ottawa | 118 min |
| Nov 5, 7:20 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bandera, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell and 14 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2015Tornado Watches in Texas, 2015Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.