Alert archive / Oklahoma / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 531

November 5, 201547 counties in Oklahoma; 44 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 5, 2015, 12:06 PM CST for 47 counties in Oklahoma; 44 counties in Texas. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 5, 2015, 12:06 PM CST (18:06 UTC)
Expired: Nov 5, 2015, 8:00 PM CST
In force: 8 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 91 counties

Adair County, OK, Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Carter County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Coal County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McClain County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Murray County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Osage County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK, Archer County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Clay County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Jones County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Mills County, TX, Montague County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

The radar

The Norman radar (KTLX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 80%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 20%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 95%

Warnings issued inside it

52 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 5, 12:26 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Cleveland, Lincoln, Oklahoma, Pottawatomie	34 min
Nov 5, 12:29 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Archer, Clay	31 min
Nov 5, 12:42 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Cleveland, Garvin, McClain, Pottawatomie	33 min
Nov 5, 12:52 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Nowata, Osage, Rogers, Washington	38 min
Nov 5, 1:01 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Jefferson, Stephens	29 min
Nov 5, 1:24 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Palo Pinto	34 min
Nov 5, 1:30 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Carter, Garvin, Jefferson, Murray, Stephens	30 min
Nov 5, 1:35 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Hughes, Pottawatomie, Seminole	40 min
Nov 5, 1:55 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Jack, Parker, Wise	36 min
Nov 5, 1:55 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Clay	35 min
Nov 5, 1:58 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Carter, Garvin, Johnston, Murray, Pontotoc	32 min
Nov 5, 2:06 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Montague	54 min
Nov 5, 2:09 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Jefferson, Love	36 min
Nov 5, 2:19 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Jack	26 min
Nov 5, 2:20 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Okfuskee, Okmulgee	25 min
Nov 5, 2:28 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Coal, Johnston, Murray, Pontotoc	16 min
Nov 5, 2:28 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Okfuskee, Okmulgee	32 min
Nov 5, 2:37 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Carter, Johnston, Love, Marshall, Murray	38 min
Nov 5, 2:39 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, McIntosh, Muskogee, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Tulsa and 1 more	36 min
Nov 5, 2:44 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Muskogee, Okfuskee, Okmulgee	31 min
Nov 5, 2:49 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Carter, Johnston, Love, Marshall	21 min
Nov 5, 2:55 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Coal, Hughes, Pontotoc	35 min
Nov 5, 2:59 PM CST	Tornado Warning	TSA	Muskogee, Okmulgee, Wagoner	18 min
Nov 5, 3:06 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Muskogee, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Pittsburg	54 min
Nov 5, 3:23 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Cooke	31 min
Nov 5, 3:29 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Atoka, Coal, Johnston, Pontotoc	46 min
Nov 5, 3:42 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Cherokee, McIntosh, Muskogee, Sequoyah	48 min
Nov 5, 3:52 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Mayes	23 min
Nov 5, 4:14 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, Muskogee, Pittsburg	31 min
Nov 5, 4:17 PM CST	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	FWD	Tarrant	28 min
Nov 5, 4:33 PM CST	Tornado Warning	FWD	Cooke, Denton, Wise	27 min
Nov 5, 4:35 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, Latimer, Pittsburg, Pushmataha	25 min
Nov 5, 4:37 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Jack, Palo Pinto, Parker	38 min
Nov 5, 4:40 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Delaware	35 min
Nov 5, 4:44 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Wise	46 min
Nov 5, 4:46 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Atoka, Bryan, Johnston, Marshall	44 min
Nov 5, 4:56 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore, McIntosh, Muskogee, Pittsburg and 2 more	34 min
Nov 5, 4:59 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Cooke, Denton, Grayson	61 min
Nov 5, 5:06 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Jack, Parker, Wise	39 min
Nov 5, 5:08 PM CST	Tornado Warning	FWD	Cooke, Grayson	37 min
Nov 5, 5:12 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Denton, Wise	48 min
Nov 5, 5:21 PM CST	Tornado Warning	FWD	Denton	24 min
Nov 5, 5:25 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Atoka, Bryan, Marshall	50 min
Nov 5, 5:28 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore, Pushmataha, Sequoyah	47 min
Nov 5, 5:37 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Denton, Wise	53 min
Nov 5, 5:40 PM CST	Tornado Warning	FWD	Grayson	23 min
Nov 5, 5:58 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Denton	32 min
Nov 5, 6:09 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Collin, Denton, Grayson	38 min
Nov 5, 6:14 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	FWD	Cooke, Grayson	3 hr
Nov 5, 6:15 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OUN	Bryan	45 min
Nov 5, 6:49 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Latimer, LeFlore, Pushmataha	26 min
Nov 5, 7:12 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	LeFlore	33 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 74 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 541 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -21 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 553 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 261 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 268 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.8
Supercell composite: 4.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 5, 3:32 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Conway, Crawford and 25 more	88 min
Nov 5, 4:00 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Conway and 32 more	5 hr
Nov 5, 5:55 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Crawford, Franklin, Logan, Madison, Polk, Scott and 3 more	2 hr
Nov 5, 12:55 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrew, Barton, Bates, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll and 24 more	95 min
Nov 5, 1:16 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adair, Andrew, Barry, Barton, Bates, Benton and 59 more	7 hr
Nov 5, 3:17 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Andrew, Barton, Bates, Benton, Buchanan and 50 more	118 min
Nov 5, 5:46 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barry, Callaway, Camden, Christian, Cole, Dallas and 17 more	59 min
Nov 4, 6:35 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beaver, Ellis, Harper, Texas	2 hr
Nov 5, 7:50 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche, Cotton, Grady and 4 more	115 min
Nov 5, 10:48 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Coal, Garvin, Hughes and 13 more	87 min
Nov 5, 2:17 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Coal, Hughes, Johnston and 5 more	88 min
Nov 5, 7:20 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bandera, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell and 14 more	2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2015 Tornado Watches in Texas, 2015 Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.