Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 1925

November 5, 201510 counties in Oklahoma; 5 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Nov 5, 2015, 7:50 AM CST for 10 counties in Oklahoma; 5 counties in Texas. It was in force for 115 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 5, 2015, 7:50 AM CST (13:50 UTC)
Expired: Nov 5, 2015, 9:45 AM CST
In force: 115 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Grady County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, McClain County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Clay County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX

The radar

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 125 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 541 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -21 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 553 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 61 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 261 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 268 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.8
Supercell composite: 4.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

674 
ACUS11 KWNS 051351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051350 
OKZ000-TXZ000-051545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1925
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CST THU NOV 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL OK AND WESTERN PARTS OF
NORTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 051350Z - 051545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS TREND SHOULD
GENERALLY CONTINUE INTO LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AS STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT ARRIVES INTO THE REGION. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
INITIALLY COOL/SEMI-STABLE...MODEST WARMING AND STEADILY INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS PER THE 12Z
NORMAN SOUNDING/REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA. SOME HAIL /MOSTLY
SUB-SEVERE/ MAY INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE...AND SOME OF THE STRONGER
BANDS/CLUSTERS COULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE SOME SEVERE-CALIBER WIND
GUSTS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/DESTABILIZES INTO LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 11/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34699925 35719793 35359710 33329786 33479954 34699925

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 4, 6:35 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beaver, Ellis, Harper, Texas	2 hr
Nov 5, 10:48 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Coal, Garvin, Hughes and 13 more	87 min
Nov 5, 12:06 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Adair, Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 41 more	8 hr
Nov 5, 2:17 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Coal, Hughes, Johnston and 5 more	88 min
Nov 5, 3:17 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Craig, Nowata, Ottawa	118 min
Nov 5, 3:32 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Choctaw, LeFlore, McCurtain	88 min
Nov 5, 4:00 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	McCurtain	5 hr
Nov 5, 5:55 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Atoka, Bryan, Cherokee, Choctaw, Coal and 11 more	2 hr
Nov 5, 7:20 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bandera, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell and 14 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2015 Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2015 Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.