Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015

Flash Flood Warning 221, NWS Fort Worth, TX

November 5, 2015Cooke County, Grayson County, Texas

NWS Fort Worth, TX issued this flash flood warning at Nov 5, 2015, 6:14 PM CST for Cooke County, Grayson County, Texas. It was in force for 3 hr. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Nov 5, 2015, 6:14 PM CST (00:14 UTC)
Expired: Nov 5, 2015, 9:15 PM CST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Fort Worth, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Cooke County, TX, Grayson County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 142 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Nov 5, 6:15 PM CST	FLASH FLOOD	3 W Gainesville, TX	LOW WATER CROSSING IS FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE, BAR DITCHES ARE FULL
Nov 5, 6:21 PM CST	FLASH FLOOD	1 N Pottsboro, TX	4 TO 6 INCHES OF HIGHWAY 289 AT FM 406

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 1 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1857 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -12 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 749 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 383 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 370 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 4.3
Supercell composite: 36.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

541 
WGUS54 KFWD 060014
FFWFWD
TXC097-181-060315-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FF.W.0221.151106T0014Z-151106T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
614 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  GRAYSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
  COOKE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CST
    
* AT 613 PM CST...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED WATER FLOWING OVER 
  HIGHWAY 377 NEAR WHITESBORO IN GRAYSON COUNTY. UP TO TWO INCHES OF 
  RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR EXPECTED 
  TO BEGIN SHORTLY ACROSS COOKE AND GRAYSON COUNTIES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 9691 3387 9688 3382 9676 3384 9669
      3392 9667 3390 9659 3384 9662 3373 9638
      3340 9639 3343 9748 3392 9748 3383 9746
      3382 9738 3388 9733 3386 9733 3392 9721
      3372 9714 3396 9698

$$

CAVANAUGH

1 follow-up statement

572 
WGUS74 KFWD 060309
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
909 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

TXC097-181-060316-
/O.EXP.KFWD.FF.W.0221.000000T0000Z-151106T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRAYSON TX-COOKE TX-
909 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR GRAYSON AND COOKE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 915 PM CST...

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS REPORTED THAT FLOOD WATERS HAVE 
RECEDED...AND FLASH FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...VERY 
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. BE SURE TO 
HEED ANY ROAD CLOSURES...AND IF YOU COME ACROSS FLOOD WATERS...MAKE 
THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DO NOT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3396 9691 3387 9688 3382 9676 3384 9669
      3392 9667 3390 9659 3384 9662 3373 9638
      3340 9639 3343 9748 3392 9748 3383 9746
      3382 9738 3388 9733 3386 9733 3392 9721
      3372 9714 3396 9698

$$

15-BAIN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Nov 5, 3:31 PM CST, 2 hours 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 5, 3:31 PM CST, 2 hours 43 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
331 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OUR UNUSUALLY WARM AND HUMID NOVEMBER WEATHER WILL END THIS
WEEKEND.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PROGRESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS A 100+ KNOT JET THAT EXTENDS
DOWN INTO NORTH TEXAS WITH THE REAR ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT AIDING
FORCING FROM ABOVE. A DRYLINE OVER WEST TEXAS IS AIDING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND HELPING TO PUSH THIS CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY IS UNSTABLE AND HAS
ENOUGH SFC-1KM HELICITY TO PRODUCE STRONG ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THUS SOME
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID EVENING AT LEAST. THE ACTIVITY COMING OUT OF THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY IS OF CONCERN AS IT CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THIS
SYSTEM AND THE UPSTREAM LINEAR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO
ONE EXTENSIVE BAND OF RAIN/STORMS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN
CORES AND ECHO TRAINING THAT WILL PRODUCE RAIN SWATCHES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS...THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN AS IS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW. THUS...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IN THIS TIME PERIOD IF HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS BEFORE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL...THEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES MORE POSITIVELY TILTED...A SECOND SURGE AND MORE WIND
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALSO PUSH THE RAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL BE DRY AND THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS SEASON WITH LOWS IN THE
40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

TEMPERATURES TURN WARMER TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT NEARS.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. 75

&&

.AVIATION...

CIGS/VIS HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND AREA AIRPORTS THIS MORNING BUT
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NW-
SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES GENERALLY FROM 23Z-03Z THOUGH A COUPLE OF
HOURS LATER AT KACT. EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

FAIRLY CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING CONCERNING THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WHAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THIS LINE. APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LINE SO HAVE
SHRA AND VCTS AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE LINE MOVES THROUGH BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES DEPENDING UPON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON.

FOLLOWING THE LINE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS....MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WILEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  55  73  53  67  46 /  70  10  10  10   5
WACO, TX              57  72  55  66  46 / 100  30  50  30  10
PARIS, TX             56  72  52  66  41 / 100  10  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            51  71  49  66  42 /  40  10  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          54  71  51  66  43 /  80  10  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            56  72  54  67  46 /  80  10  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           56  73  54  67  45 / 100  10  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         60  72  58  67  47 / 100  30  40  40  10
TEMPLE, TX            59  70  55  65  46 / 100  40  60  50  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     49  70  49  67  41 /  20  10  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ093>095-
103>107-117>123-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

/75

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 5, 3:43 AM CST, 14 hours 31 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
343 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-060945-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
343 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING....WITH QUARTER SIZED
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM COMANCHE TO SHERMAN THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN LATE TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED MAINLY WEST OF A
SHERMAN-DALLAS-LAMPASAS LINE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EAST OF A
SHERMAN-DALLAS-LAMPASAS LINE THIS EVENING.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 5, 5:34 PM CST, 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
534 PM CST THU NOV 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             DECATUR                 33.23N  97.60W
11/05/2015  E1.75 INCH       WISE               TX   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORT VIA SM IN DECATUR.

Local storm report, Nov 5, 5:49 PM CST, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
549 PM CST THU NOV 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     HAIL             PONDER                  33.18N  97.30W
11/05/2015  E1.75 INCH       DENTON             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL JUST WEST OF PONDER ON HWY 156.

Local storm report, Nov 5, 5:55 PM CST, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
555 PM CST THU NOV 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N FORT WORTH          32.78N  97.34W
11/05/2015                   TARRANT            TX   PUBLIC

            DAMAGE TO COMMERICAL BUILDING SIGN 2800 BLOCK OF DEEN
            ROAD FORT WORTH/TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR

Local storm report, Nov 5, 6:02 PM CST, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 PM CST THU NOV 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     TSTM WND GST     DENTON                  33.22N  97.15W
11/05/2015  E60 MPH          DENTON             TX   ASOS

Local storm report, Nov 5, 6:02 PM CST, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 PM CST THU NOV 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     TSTM WND GST     DENTON                  33.22N  97.15W
11/05/2015  M60 MPH          DENTON             TX   ASOS

Local storm report, Nov 5, 6:11 PM CST, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
611 PM CST THU NOV 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PONDER                  33.18N  97.30W
11/05/2015                   DENTON             TX   PUBLIC

            3 LIGHT POLES SNAPPED AT PONDER HIGH SCHOOL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Fort Worth, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 5, 6:09 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Collin, Denton, Grayson	38 min
Nov 5, 7:05 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	FWD	Fannin, Lamar	40 min
Nov 5, 7:32 PM CST	Areal Flood Advisory	FWD	Anderson, Freestone	3 hr
Nov 5, 7:46 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	FWD	Anderson	44 min
Nov 5, 8:25 PM CST	Areal Flood Advisory	FWD	Delta, Fannin, Hunt, Lamar	3 hr
Nov 5, 9:06 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	FWD	Hopkins	39 min
Nov 5, 10:51 PM CST	Areal Flood Advisory	FWD	Navarro	3 hr
Nov 5, 11:20 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	FWD	Navarro	3 hr
Nov 6, 12:19 AM CST	Areal Flood Advisory	FWD	Freestone, Limestone	3 hr
Nov 6, 12:27 AM CST	Areal Flood Advisory	FWD	Bell	3 hr
Nov 6, 2:15 AM CST	River Flood Warning	FWD	Hunt	17 hr
Nov 6, 8:09 AM CST	River Flood Warning	FWD	Limestone	37 hr
Nov 6, 2:37 PM CST	Flash Flood Watch	FWD	Anderson, Bell, Falls, Freestone, Henderson, Hill and 7 more	20 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2015 Every flash flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.