Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 239

May 29, 201518 counties in Arkansas; 8 counties in Missouri; 13 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 29, 2015, 2:09 PM CDT for 18 counties in Arkansas; 8 counties in Missouri; 13 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 29, 2015, 2:09 PM CDT (19:09 UTC)
Expired
May 29, 2015, 7:00 PM CDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 39 counties

Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Howard County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Little River County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Washington County, AR, Yell County, AR, Barry County, MO, Christian County, MO, Douglas County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Craig County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Wagoner County, OK

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 30 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

32 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 29, 2:13 PM CDTTornado WarningTSACherokee, Sequoyah47 min
May 29, 2:18 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSACherokee, Haskell, Muskogee, Sequoyah, Wagoner4 hr
May 29, 2:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSADelaware, Mayes42 min
May 29, 2:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACherokee, Mayes, Wagoner13 min
May 29, 2:31 PM CDTTornado WarningTSADelaware, Mayes29 min
May 29, 2:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee39 min
May 29, 2:53 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSACraig, Delaware, Ottawa4 hr
May 29, 2:54 PM CDTTornado WarningTSADelaware, Ottawa36 min
May 29, 3:05 PM CDTTornado WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee25 min
May 29, 3:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSADelaware, Ottawa55 min
May 29, 3:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFMcDonald, Newton50 min
May 29, 3:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAAdair, Cherokee37 min
May 29, 3:36 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLZKLogan, Polk, Scott4 hr
May 29, 3:49 PM CDTTornado WarningSGFMcDonald, Newton26 min
May 29, 3:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACrawford, Washington39 min
May 29, 4:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFMcDonald39 min
May 29, 4:07 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSACrawford, Sebastian113 min
May 29, 4:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDouglas, Wright41 min
May 29, 4:29 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSABenton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more6 hr
May 29, 4:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACrawford, Franklin, Madison, Washington29 min
May 29, 4:37 PM CDTTornado WarningTSACrawford, Washington23 min
May 29, 4:44 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSGFMcDonald, Newton6 hr
May 29, 4:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAMadison, Washington22 min
May 29, 5:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Montgomery, Pike43 min
May 29, 5:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarry, Lawrence36 min
May 29, 5:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Hot Spring, Montgomery, Pike36 min
May 29, 5:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFChristian, Greene, Lawrence, Stone63 min
May 29, 5:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKGarland, Montgomery, Perry, Yell40 min
May 29, 6:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKJohnson, Newton, Pope25 min
May 29, 6:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKConway, Johnson, Logan, Perry, Pope, Yell40 min
May 29, 6:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVColumbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Miller, Nevada45 min
May 29, 6:32 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningTSAChoctaw, Latimer, LeFlore, Pittsburg, Pushmataha6 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 208 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2015-05-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 535 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2015-05-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 130 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
535 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-52 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
864 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
130 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
123 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

034 
WWUS20 KWNS 291906
SEL9  
SPC WW 291906
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-300000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 239
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  WESTERN ARKANSAS
  FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
  EASTERN OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL
  700 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...ISOLATED DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS...AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF DE
QUEEN ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF GROVE OKLAHOMA. 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21020.


...MEAD

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 29, 12:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Clark, Columbia, Conway, Dallas, Franklin and 24 more87 min
May 29, 4:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Crawford, Franklin and 21 more87 min
May 29, 6:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaxter, Boone, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne and 17 more3 hr
May 28, 9:58 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Johnston, Marshall2 hr
May 29, 2:27 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCimarron93 min
May 29, 3:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCimarron7 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2015Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2015Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.