Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2015
Tornado Watch 239
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 29, 2015, 2:09 PM CDT for 18 counties in Arkansas; 8 counties in Missouri; 13 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 29, 2015, 2:09 PM CDT (19:09 UTC)
- Expired
- May 29, 2015, 7:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 39 counties
Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Howard County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Little River County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Washington County, AR, Yell County, AR, Barry County, MO, Christian County, MO, Douglas County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Craig County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Wagoner County, OK
The radar
The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 30 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 40%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 30%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 30%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 10%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 60%
Warnings issued inside it
32 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2:13 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | TSA | Cherokee, Sequoyah | 47 min |
| May 29, 2:18 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | TSA | Cherokee, Haskell, Muskogee, Sequoyah, Wagoner | 4 hr |
| May 29, 2:18 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Delaware, Mayes | 42 min |
| May 29, 2:25 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Cherokee, Mayes, Wagoner | 13 min |
| May 29, 2:31 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | TSA | Delaware, Mayes | 29 min |
| May 29, 2:51 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Adair, Cherokee | 39 min |
| May 29, 2:53 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | TSA | Craig, Delaware, Ottawa | 4 hr |
| May 29, 2:54 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | TSA | Delaware, Ottawa | 36 min |
| May 29, 3:05 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | TSA | Adair, Cherokee | 25 min |
| May 29, 3:20 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Delaware, Ottawa | 55 min |
| May 29, 3:25 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | McDonald, Newton | 50 min |
| May 29, 3:28 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Adair, Cherokee | 37 min |
| May 29, 3:36 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | Logan, Polk, Scott | 4 hr |
| May 29, 3:49 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | SGF | McDonald, Newton | 26 min |
| May 29, 3:51 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Crawford, Washington | 39 min |
| May 29, 4:06 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | McDonald | 39 min |
| May 29, 4:07 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | TSA | Crawford, Sebastian | 113 min |
| May 29, 4:19 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Douglas, Wright | 41 min |
| May 29, 4:29 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | TSA | Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more | 6 hr |
| May 29, 4:31 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Washington | 29 min |
| May 29, 4:37 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | TSA | Crawford, Washington | 23 min |
| May 29, 4:44 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SGF | McDonald, Newton | 6 hr |
| May 29, 4:55 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TSA | Madison, Washington | 22 min |
| May 29, 5:02 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Clark, Montgomery, Pike | 43 min |
| May 29, 5:09 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Barry, Lawrence | 36 min |
| May 29, 5:39 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Clark, Hot Spring, Montgomery, Pike | 36 min |
| May 29, 5:42 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Christian, Greene, Lawrence, Stone | 63 min |
| May 29, 5:50 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Garland, Montgomery, Perry, Yell | 40 min |
| May 29, 6:18 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Johnson, Newton, Pope | 25 min |
| May 29, 6:24 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Conway, Johnson, Logan, Perry, Pope, Yell | 40 min |
| May 29, 6:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SHV | Columbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Miller, Nevada | 45 min |
| May 29, 6:32 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | TSA | Choctaw, Latimer, LeFlore, Pittsburg, Pushmataha | 6 hr |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 208 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 535 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -52 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 864 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 33 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 130 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 123 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
034 WWUS20 KWNS 291906 SEL9 SPC WW 291906 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-300000- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 210 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EASTERN OKLAHOMA * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 700 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...ISOLATED DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS...AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF DE QUEEN ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF GROVE OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21020. ...MEAD
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 12:33 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Calhoun, Clark, Columbia, Conway, Dallas, Franklin and 24 more | 87 min |
| May 29, 4:48 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Crawford, Franklin and 21 more | 87 min |
| May 29, 6:31 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baxter, Boone, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne and 17 more | 3 hr |
| May 28, 9:58 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Johnston, Marshall | 2 hr |
| May 29, 2:27 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cimarron | 93 min |
| May 29, 3:44 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cimarron | 7 hr |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2015Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2015Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.