Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
358 PM CDT Fri May 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

Low topped subtropical convection, some supercells, has developed
in moderate instability along the eastern edge (and points east)
of an area of rain and thunderstorms ahead of an advancing
shortwave over eastern OK. Rotation seems to be maximized
along/just north of a w-e oriented front that extends from the
three state OK/AR/MO border into south central MO near KUNO. 0-3km
helicity is fairly good 150-200 m2/s2 while low level 0-1km is
weaker, but the boundary is likely helping to augment lower level
rotation a bit. Storm rotation has been more prominent/persistent
in mid levels and less so closer to the sfc. Will maintain a close
met-watch on storms over southern MO.

Rainfall is the next concern. Efficient rainfall has occurred in
the high PWAT environment and lift will be aided by the shortwave
moving through the region early tonight. Rainfall of an inch or two
over the next 6-10 hours will be elevated the flood risk, especially
where locally heavy rain/cell training occurs.

The overall forecast trend is to move the heavier rain east of the
region more quickly and will taper off to rain/drizzle on Saturday
with cool temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

The shortwave moves east of the area with broad upper level
ridging moving into the Plains early next week, then through our
area by Wed-Thu. Trend has been to hold back western troughing a
bit with upper level ridging remaining over the central CONUS.
Looks like a dry period for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

The storm system in place over the Ozarks will move slowly if at
all east into tonight as at combination of ample moisture,
instability and an area of low pressure combines to bring
additional rounds of rainfall to the region. The depth of the
moisture will bring MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities to the
region through Saturday morning. Some terminals may potentially
see LIFR conditions for brief periods if heavy rain moves over
location.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening FOR MOZ066-068>070-
     077>082-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Hatch

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
239 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-301945-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
239 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY MOVES NORTH FROM OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
INITIALLY DISCREET CELLS NEAR A WARM FRONT HAVE SHOWN ROTATION
AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY
OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE
ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
110 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MOZ104-291845-
TANEY MO-
110 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TANEY COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 108 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POWERSITE...OR 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FORSYTH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50
MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRADLEYVILLE...BROWNBRANCH...EDGEWATER
BEACH...FORSYTH...KIRBYVILLE...KISSEE MILLS...OZARK BEACH...POWERSITE
AND TANEYVILLE.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE BULL
SHOALS LAKE AND LAKE TANEYCOMO.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3664 9317 3681 9303 3681 9277 3679 9276
      3664 9287 3654 9311
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 214DEG 20KT 3664 9306

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MOZ101-292030-
MCDONALD MO-
253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MCDONALD COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
CDT...

AT 251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF NOEL...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PINEVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ANDERSON...GOODMAN...LANAGAN...NOEL AND
PINEVILLE.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE BIG
SUGAR CREEK STATE PARK.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3676 9462 3675 9418 3649 9431 3650 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 194DEG 18KT 3645 9446

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
346 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     HAIL             5 WNW PINEVILLE         36.62N 94.47W
05/29/2015  E0.75 INCH       MCDONALD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA TO PENNEY SIZE HAIL BETWEEN PINEVILLE AND LANAGAN

&&

RABERDING