Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 198

March 17, 20215 counties in Arkansas; 17 counties in Mississippi; 4 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 17, 2021, 7:38 AM CDT for 5 counties in Arkansas; 17 counties in Mississippi; 4 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 67 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 17, 2021, 7:38 AM CDT (12:38 UTC)
Expired
Mar 17, 2021, 8:45 AM CDT
In force
67 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 26
All 26 counties

Crittenden County, AR, Lee County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Phillips County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Alcorn County, MS, Benton County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Fayette County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Shelby County, TN

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 23 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2021-03-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 18 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2021-03-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 217 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
18 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-262 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1466 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
65 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
217 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
186 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

552 
ACUS11 KWNS 171238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171238 
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-171345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Areas affected...Portions of eastern AR...northern MS...and far
southwestern TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 26...

Valid 171238Z - 171345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 26 continues.

SUMMARY...All severe hazards, including a few tornadoes, remain
possible in the short term.

DISCUSSION...Primary severe risk at the moment across Tornado Watch
26 remains focused over northern MS with an ongoing supercell. The
12Z sounding from JAN indicated a favorable low-level wind profile
for updraft rotation, but instability remains a somewhat limiting
factor. Low-level southerly flow should continue to gradually
increase over the next couple of hours, and storms that can interact
with the warm front may pose a tornado threat given effective SRH of
200-250 m2/s2. Any semi-discrete supercells may also have an
isolated large hail and damaging wind threat. The overall severe
threat this morning should remain fairly isolated, with a much more
substantial risk for all hazards, including strong tornadoes, likely
to develop later this afternoon.

..Gleason.. 03/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34439174 34899142 35369007 35348868 34888821 34208826
            34118965 34179070 34439174

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 17, 12:45 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Washington90 min
Mar 17, 1:32 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia and 27 more118 min
Mar 17, 4:04 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Sevier86 min
Mar 17, 4:37 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCHempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Nevada and 1 more5 hr
Mar 17, 5:34 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Crittenden, Cross, Desha, Lee, Lincoln and 3 more86 min
Mar 17, 5:53 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Bradley, Cleveland, Crittenden, Desha, Drew and 8 more7 hr
Mar 17, 6:40 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Clark, Columbia, Crawford, Dallas, Franklin and 19 more95 min
Mar 17, 7:47 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCCalhoun, Clark, Conway, Dallas, Faulkner, Garland and 15 more5 hr
Mar 17, 8:43 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCColumbia, Union4 hr
Mar 17, 12:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Chicot, Desha, Drew, Phillips90 min
Mar 17, 12:57 PM CDTTornado Watch PDSSPCAshley, Chicot, Lee, Phillips6 hr
Mar 17, 1:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Crawford, Franklin and 22 more57 min
Mar 17, 2:00 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBenton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Johnson and 12 more7 hr
Mar 17, 2:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Chicot, Desha, Drew94 min
Mar 17, 3:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin and 5 more83 min
Mar 17, 6:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden, Cross66 min
Mar 17, 10:56 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAttala, Choctaw, Clarke, Clay, Copiah, Covington and 26 more2 hr
Mar 17, 11:36 AM CDTTornado Watch PDSSPCAttala, Choctaw, Clarke, Clay, Copiah, Covington and 28 more7 hr
Mar 17, 12:02 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClarke, Jones, Wayne58 min
Mar 17, 1:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJefferson Davis, Lawrence, Lincoln, Simpson, Smith86 min
Mar 17, 1:45 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAmite, Forrest, George, Greene, Hancock, Harrison and 9 more90 min
Mar 17, 2:38 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAmite, Hancock, Harrison, Jackson, Pearl River, Pike and 2 more8 hr
Mar 17, 5:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClarke, Covington, Forrest, George, Greene, Jasper and 13 more86 min
Mar 17, 6:48 PM CDTTornado Watch PDSSPCAttala, Choctaw, Clarke, Clay, Covington, Forrest and 20 more8 hr
Mar 17, 12:59 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBenton, Carroll, Chester, Crockett, Decatur, Dyer and 13 more6 hr
Mar 17, 2:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBedford, Benton, Cannon, Coffee, Davidson, Decatur and 18 more59 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.