Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 211

March 17, 202111 counties in Arkansas; 11 counties in Missouri; 11 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 17, 2021, 3:37 PM CDT for 11 counties in Arkansas; 11 counties in Missouri; 11 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 83 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 17, 2021, 3:37 PM CDT (20:37 UTC)
Expired
Mar 17, 2021, 5:00 PM CDT
In force
83 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Tornado watch 34
All 33 counties

Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Newton County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Washington County, AR, Barry County, MO, Christian County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Craig County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Mayes County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2021-03-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 102 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2021-03-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 220 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
102 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-235 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
956 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
220 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
236 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

923 
ACUS11 KWNS 172037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172037 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-172200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0211
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...southwest Missouri...and
northwest Arkansas.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 34...

Valid 172037Z - 172200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 34 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues from northeast
Oklahoma to southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...Storm activity has been mostly confined to the areas
with greatest low-level convergence near the surface low in
northeast Oklahoma. Current observations show decreasing convergence
along the boundary into west-central Arkansas which may limit
thunderstorm chances in this area. However, where storms do form
they may be strong to severe given MLCAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg and
effective shear in excess of 70 knots per SPC mesoanalysis. These
storms will pose a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes.

..Bentley.. 03/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   36209646 36909585 37389381 37169252 36649212 35979234
            35659319 35489398 35689493 35939583 36209646

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 17, 12:45 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Washington90 min
Mar 17, 1:32 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia and 27 more118 min
Mar 17, 4:04 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Sevier86 min
Mar 17, 4:37 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCHempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Nevada and 1 more5 hr
Mar 17, 5:34 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Crittenden, Cross, Desha, Lee, Lincoln and 3 more86 min
Mar 17, 5:53 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Bradley, Cleveland, Crittenden, Desha, Drew and 8 more7 hr
Mar 17, 6:40 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Clark, Columbia, Crawford, Dallas, Franklin and 19 more95 min
Mar 17, 7:38 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden, Lee, Monroe, Phillips, St. Francis67 min
Mar 17, 7:47 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCCalhoun, Clark, Conway, Dallas, Faulkner, Garland and 15 more5 hr
Mar 17, 8:43 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCColumbia, Union4 hr
Mar 17, 12:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Chicot, Desha, Drew, Phillips90 min
Mar 17, 12:57 PM CDTTornado Watch PDSSPCAshley, Chicot, Lee, Phillips6 hr
Mar 17, 1:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Crawford, Franklin and 22 more57 min
Mar 17, 2:00 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBenton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Johnson and 12 more7 hr
Mar 17, 2:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Chicot, Desha, Drew94 min
Mar 17, 6:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden, Cross66 min
Mar 17, 1:54 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarry, Barton, Bates, Cedar, Dade, Jasper and 5 more6 hr
Mar 17, 5:18 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Bates, Vernon87 min
Mar 17, 8:51 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudrain, Boone, Callaway, Camden, Christian, Cole and 35 more84 min
Mar 16, 7:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Custer and 19 more7 hr
Mar 17, 1:56 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Custer, Garfield, Kay, Kingfisher, Logan and 3 more64 min
Mar 17, 4:38 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Cimarron, Texas6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.