Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 34

March 17, 202118 counties in Arkansas; 12 counties in Missouri; 11 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Mar 17, 2021, 2:00 PM CDT for 18 counties in Arkansas; 12 counties in Missouri; 11 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 17, 2021, 2:00 PM CDT (19:00 UTC)
Expired
Mar 17, 2021, 9:00 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
55 kt
All 41 counties

Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Newton County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Washington County, AR, Yell County, AR, Barry County, MO, Christian County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Mayes County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
10%
Ten or more severe wind reports
20%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
50%

Warnings issued inside it

29 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 17, 2:17 PM CDTTornado WarningTSARogers, Wagoner28 min
Mar 17, 2:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACreek, Osage, Tulsa47 min
Mar 17, 3:31 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSABenton13 min
Mar 17, 3:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFMcDonald, Newton40 min
Mar 17, 4:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSABenton, Washington13 min
Mar 17, 4:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarry, McDonald, Newton50 min
Mar 17, 4:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFMcDonald, Newton50 min
Mar 17, 4:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSABenton27 min
Mar 17, 4:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarry, Jasper, Lawrence, Newton52 min
Mar 17, 4:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarry50 min
Mar 17, 5:10 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSGFMcDonald, Newton4 hr
Mar 17, 5:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarry, McDonald, Newton35 min
Mar 17, 5:12 PM CDTTornado WarningSGFBarry33 min
Mar 17, 5:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarry, Lawrence43 min
Mar 17, 5:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarry, Stone57 min
Mar 17, 5:33 PM CDTTornado WarningSGFBarry, Lawrence27 min
Mar 17, 5:38 PM CDTTornado WarningSGFBarry37 min
Mar 17, 5:55 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSGFBarry, Lawrence, Newton4 hr
Mar 17, 6:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFChristian, Dade, Greene, Lawrence44 min
Mar 17, 6:13 PM CDTTornado WarningSGFBarry, Stone17 min
Mar 17, 6:20 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedSGFBarry, Stone25 min
Mar 17, 6:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFChristian, Stone50 min
Mar 17, 6:37 PM CDTTornado WarningSGFStone23 min
Mar 17, 6:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFChristian57 min
Mar 17, 6:50 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSGFBarry, Jasper, Lawrence, Stone4 hr
Mar 17, 7:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFChristian, Greene, Webster54 min
Mar 17, 7:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDouglas, Webster, Wright66 min
Mar 17, 7:29 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSGFBarry, Christian, Dade, Greene, Lawrence, Polk and 2 more4 hr
Mar 17, 7:43 PM CDTTornado WarningSGFDouglas32 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 83 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2021-03-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 102 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2021-03-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 220 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
102 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-235 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
956 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
220 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
236 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

059 
WWUS20 KWNS 171858
SEL4  
SPC WW 171858
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-180100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 34
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
200 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northwest Arkansas
  Southwest Missouri
  Northeast Oklahoma

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 200 PM
  until 800 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

SUMMARY...Multiple supercells may intensify across northeast
Oklahoma before spreading/developing into parts of northwest
Arkansas and southwest Missouri. Greatest tornado threat should be
in a narrow corridor near the surface cyclone and warm front.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Monett MO to
40 miles southwest of Russellville AR. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 29...WW 30...WW 31...WW
32...WW 33...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 22025.

...Grams

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 17, 12:45 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Washington90 min
Mar 17, 1:32 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia and 27 more118 min
Mar 17, 4:04 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Sevier86 min
Mar 17, 4:37 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCHempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Nevada and 1 more5 hr
Mar 17, 5:34 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Crittenden, Cross, Desha, Lee, Lincoln and 3 more86 min
Mar 17, 5:53 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Bradley, Cleveland, Crittenden, Desha, Drew and 8 more7 hr
Mar 17, 6:40 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Clark, Columbia, Crawford, Dallas, Franklin and 19 more95 min
Mar 17, 7:38 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden, Lee, Monroe, Phillips, St. Francis67 min
Mar 17, 7:47 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCCalhoun, Clark, Conway, Dallas, Faulkner, Garland and 15 more5 hr
Mar 17, 8:43 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCColumbia, Union4 hr
Mar 17, 12:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Chicot, Desha, Drew, Phillips90 min
Mar 17, 12:57 PM CDTTornado Watch PDSSPCAshley, Chicot, Lee, Phillips6 hr
Mar 17, 1:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Crawford, Franklin and 22 more57 min
Mar 17, 2:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Chicot, Desha, Drew94 min
Mar 17, 3:37 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin and 5 more83 min
Mar 17, 6:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCrittenden, Cross66 min
Mar 17, 1:54 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarry, Barton, Bates, Cedar, Dade, Jasper and 5 more6 hr
Mar 17, 5:18 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Bates, Vernon87 min
Mar 17, 8:51 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudrain, Boone, Callaway, Camden, Christian, Cole and 35 more84 min
Mar 16, 7:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Custer and 19 more7 hr
Mar 17, 1:56 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlaine, Custer, Garfield, Kay, Kingfisher, Logan and 3 more64 min
Mar 17, 4:38 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Cimarron, Texas6 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2021Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2021Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.