Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 199
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 17, 2021, 8:51 AM CDT for Calhoun County, Illinois; 41 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 84 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 17, 2021, 8:51 AM CDT (13:51 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 17, 2021, 10:15 AM CDT
- In force
- 84 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 42 counties
Calhoun County, IL, Audrain County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Camden County, MO, Christian County, MO, Cole County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Osage County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pike County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO
The radar
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 138 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 201 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 102 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -235 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 956 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 58 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 220 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 236 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.9
The text
As transmitted.
357
ACUS11 KWNS 171352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171351
ILZ000-MOZ000-171515-
Mesoscale Discussion 0199
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021
Areas affected...Portions of central and eastern MIssouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 171351Z - 171515Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few storms capable of large hail are possible this
morning.
DISCUSSION...A few elevated storms in central Missouri have recently
reported 1 inch hail. These storms have formed in an airmass with
500-750 MUCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis. These storms are quickly moving
away from the better instability, but an additional storm cluster
across southern Missouri may pose a severe threat as it moves
northeastward. The 12Z KSGF RAOB showed moderate mid-level lapse
rates of 7 to 7.5 C/km and MUCAPE around 1300 J/kg. This, combined
with effective shear around 40 to 45 knots should be sufficient for
a continued threat for a few stronger storms capable of mostly large
hail. The sharp surface inversion evident on the KSGF RAOB will
likely limit the overall damaging wind threat, but a strong gust or
two also cannot be ruled out. A watch is unlikely this morning, but
an additional severe weather threat is still expected later this
afternoon/evening as the surface low approaches.
..Bentley/Grams.. 03/17/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 38809288 39179233 39349179 39399125 39319078 39069040
38739029 37999039 37449058 37039079 36739142 36639216
36559262 36569301 36739331 36919371 37229374 38809288SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 12:45 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Barton, Bates, Cass, Cedar, Dade and 8 more | 90 min |
| Mar 17, 1:54 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barry, Barton, Bates, Cedar, Dade, Jasper and 5 more | 6 hr |
| Mar 17, 5:18 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Bates, Vernon | 87 min |
| Mar 17, 1:18 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Jasper, Lawrence, McDonald, Newton, Stone and 1 more | 57 min |
| Mar 17, 2:00 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Barry, Christian, Douglas, Greene, Lawrence, McDonald and 6 more | 7 hr |
| Mar 17, 3:37 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Christian, Douglas, Greene, Jasper, Lawrence and 5 more | 83 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.