Mesoscale Discussion 189

Issued

Mar 17, 2021, 12:45 AM CDT (05:45 UTC)

Expired

Mar 17, 2021, 2:15 AM CDT

In force

90 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch likely

Chance of a watch

80%

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 127 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

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• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 24Mar 17, 1:55 AM CDT

502 
ACUS11 KWNS 170545
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170545 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-170715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0189
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KS...western
MO...eastern OK...and northwestern AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 170545Z - 170715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and strong to severe wind gusts
should increase early this morning. A tornado or two may also occur
in eastern Oklahoma and vicinity. Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing strong to severe storms across western/central
OK and south-central KS are occurring in a southerly low-level warm
advection regime. 00Z sounding from KOUN indicated the presence of
greater than 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates. As low-level moisture
continues to advect northward early this morning across OK and into
southern/eastern KS, MUCAPE will likely increase further into the
1000-2000+ J/kg range. Effective bulk shear of 35-50 kt preceding an
ejecting mid/upper-level low over the southern/central High Plains
will prove favorable for storm organization, including supercells.
Convection in KS and most of northern OK will probably remain
elevated to the north of a surface front. Still, these mainly
elevated storms should pose a large hail threat. Some upscale growth
also appears possible as ongoing storms move eastward over the next
couple of hours, and strong to perhaps damaging winds may occur as
the boundary layer does not appear overly stable. Potential for
tornadoes remains unclear in eastern OK and vicinity as low-level
moisture (at least low 60s surface dewpoints) returns northward. If
storms can become truly surface based, then a tornado or two may
occur across this area, as low-level shear will be quite favorable.
Regardless, the increasing severe threat will likely warrant watch
issuance soon.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 03/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37459732 37629793 38179732 39049581 39099454 38379369
            37799349 36959334 36239363 35609440 35499633 36159651
            37039689 37459732

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.