Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 194
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 17, 2021, 3:38 AM MDT for 5 states. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 17, 2021, 3:38 AM MDT (09:38 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 17, 2021, 9:45 AM MDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Blizzard
All 24 counties
Baca County, CO, Morton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Union County, NM, Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Carson County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Moore County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 103 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 127 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -82 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3287 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 54 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 93 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 235 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
249
ACUS11 KWNS 170939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170938
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-171545-
Mesoscale Discussion 0194
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0438 AM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021
Areas affected...Portions of the OK/TX Panhandles...far northeastern
NM...far southeastern CO...and far southwestern KS
Concerning...Blizzard
Valid 170938Z - 171545Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow with strong/gusty winds will likely
result in blizzard conditions developing this morning.
DISCUSSION...A closed mid/upper-level low will move eastward from
eastern NM into the OK/TX Panhandle this morning. Cold mid-level
temperatures (around -20 to -22F at 500 mb) associated with this
upper low are supporting weak instability and thunderstorms across
the TX Panhandle early this morning. As the thermal profile rapidly
cools on the backside on the low, precipitation should rapidly
transition west-to-east from rain to snow. This transition has
already occurred across far northeastern NM, southeastern CO, and
the western OK/TX Panhandles. Even though snowfall rates may not be
very high (probably no more than about an inch per hour), a strong
surface pressure gradient will exist across this region through the
morning hours. Visibilities are expected to become reduced below 1/4
of a mile as north-northeasterly wind gusts of 40-60 mph become
common, and blizzard conditions appear likely for several hours.
..Gleason.. 03/17/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34800265 34810278 35470344 36210375 36740374 37360349
37560305 37550211 37250120 36980052 36780008 36070004
35650017 35230061 34820114 34800265SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 6:49 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cowley, Harper, Sumner | 7 hr |
| Mar 16, 11:45 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 21 more | 90 min |
| Mar 17, 12:54 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chautauqua, Cherokee and 10 more | 6 hr |
| Mar 17, 4:18 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Linn, Montgomery and 1 more | 87 min |
| Mar 17, 12:18 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cherokee | 57 min |
| Mar 17, 12:32 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | LeFlore, McCurtain | 118 min |
| Mar 17, 12:56 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Blaine, Custer, Garfield, Kay, Kingfisher, Logan and 3 more | 64 min |
| Mar 17, 3:04 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bryan, Choctaw, McCurtain | 86 min |
| Mar 17, 3:37 AM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Choctaw, McCurtain, Pushmataha | 5 hr |
| Mar 17, 5:40 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Choctaw, Latimer, LeFlore, McCurtain, Pushmataha | 95 min |
| Mar 17, 1:00 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adair, Cherokee, Craig, Creek, Delaware, Mayes and 5 more | 7 hr |
| Mar 17, 2:37 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Cherokee, Craig, Delaware, Mayes, Nowata and 5 more | 83 min |
| Mar 16, 8:27 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman and 30 more | 93 min |
| Mar 16, 9:26 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bell, Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman and 44 more | 7 hr |
| Mar 17, 1:20 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche, Eastland, Erath and 6 more | 85 min |
| Mar 17, 7:43 AM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Angelina, Nacogdoches, Sabine, San Augustine, Shelby | 4 hr |
| Mar 17, 10:35 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Brazoria, Chambers, Galveston, Hardin, Harris and 10 more | 85 min |
| Mar 17, 10:53 AM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Newton, Orange, Tyler | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.