Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 208

March 17, 202124 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 17, 2021, 2:16 PM CDT for 24 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 59 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 17, 2021, 2:16 PM CDT (19:16 UTC)
Expired
Mar 17, 2021, 3:15 PM CDT
In force
59 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%
All 24 counties

Bedford County, TN, Benton County, TN, Cannon County, TN, Coffee County, TN, Davidson County, TN, Decatur County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Franklin County, TN, Giles County, TN, Hardin County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Lincoln County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, Moore County, TN, Perry County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Warren County, TN, Wayne County, TN, Williamson County, TN

The radar

The Nashville radar (KOHX), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 77 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2021-03-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 92 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2021-03-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 6 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
92 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-304 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
781 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
6 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
71 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

946 
ACUS11 KWNS 171916
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171916 
TNZ000-ALZ000-172015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0208
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

Areas affected...Portions of Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 171916Z - 172015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...No watch is anticipated downstream of tornado watch 31.

DISCUSSION...A bowing segment has moved across western Tennessee
over the last hour and has recently had a weakening trend. No
observed strong/damaging winds have been reported from this line at
this time. Therefore, given the weakening trends with this activity,
its location to the north of the better surface based instability,
and lack of reports, do not plan to issue a watch across Middle
Tennessee at this time.

..Bentley.. 03/17/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   36168833 36338773 36198658 35708564 35178591 34928602
            34958775 35058839 36168833

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 17, 5:34 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFayette, Hardeman, Haywood, McNairy, Shelby, Tipton86 min
Mar 17, 5:53 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCFayette, Hardeman, Hardin, McNairy, Shelby7 hr
Mar 17, 7:38 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFayette, Hardeman, McNairy, Shelby67 min
Mar 17, 12:59 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBenton, Carroll, Chester, Crockett, Decatur, Dyer and 13 more6 hr
Mar 17, 6:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChester, Fayette, Hardeman, Hardin, Haywood, Lawrence and 5 more66 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.