Areal Flood Warning 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
321 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of tropical cyclone Fred will generate heavy rainfall
across the forecast area into tonight. Expect temperatures to warm
closer to normal for the rest of the week as the remnants of Fred
moves away.  Abundant moisture will continue across the region into
the last half of the week leading to periods of mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3pm EDT Tuesday:  Weather in the near term will largely be
determined by the passage of T.D./remnants of Fred.  Flash flooding
is still the main concern as Fred releases high levels of
precipitable water.  Some tornadoes will also continue to be an
issue as wind profile is favorable for rotating storm elements in
the stronger updrafts, and instability as marginal but relatively
high for a tropical system. High-res models show rotational updrafts
through the overnight period, moving eastward as main band of
precipitation progresses.  Current tornado watch is a good match,
and may be extended eastward, or have a new watch for the eastern
counties not in a watch.

Once Fred moves east of the area Wednesday morning, conditions will
improve.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...The remnants of Fred are expected to be
well north of the Carolinas pushing into New England towards the
beginning of the forecast period. This should allow PoPs to decrease
Wednesday evening. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure will continue
to build into the Southeastern US while an area of low pressure near
the Great Lakes Region gradually tracks east towards New England.
This will act to suppress the ridge to the south Thursday evening
into Friday as the upper-level trough tracks across the western
Carolinas and northeast Georgia. This upper-level trough will
increase diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday and
Friday, especially for the western zones where PoPs are likely.
Westerly flow will be in place Thursday and Friday allowing high
temps to climb a few degrees above Climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...High pressure will remain in place across
the southern US throughout the extended forecast period. The area of
low pressure will continue tracking towards New England at the start
of the extended forecast period. Short waves will continue to ride
along this trough Saturday keeping a chance for showers and
thunderstorms around. PWATs climb back near 2.00 inches on Saturday
so heavy downpours could be a concern. This low should lift to the
north and east late this weekend into early Monday. As the low lifts
away from the region, high pressure will nudge back into the western
Carolinas and northeast Georgia Sunday into Monday. With high
pressure in place and no real upper-level forcing present, shower
and thunderstorm chances will be diurnally driven. Capped PoPs at
chance Sunday and Monday. Tuesday models are in good agreement
regarding the ridge retreating westward. This could allow heights to
lower along the East Coast towards the end of the forecast period.
For now decided to cap PoPs to a slight chance to chance. High temps
during the extended should remain a few degrees above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere:  Passage of T.D. Fred will dictate weather
through Wednesday morning.  Winds will veer from easterly to
southeasterly as the circulation passes to the northwest. As this
circulation passes, periods of rain and some thunderstorms will be
prevalent. Main period of heavy rain and thunder likely ends upon
passage of current line slowly moving eastward, which is expected to
exit past KCLT by midnight or so.  Continued saturated airmass will
also continue heavy cloudiness through the forecast, with some fog
possible in the morning, and reduced ceilings generally.  Some gusts
are also anticipated for locations close to the center of the Fred
circulation, primarily KAVL, KHKY, and KCLT. Once Fred passes,
conditions will begin to improve Wednesday morning.

Outlook: A gradual downward trend in diurnal convection is expected
Wednesday in the wake of Fred's remnants, then continuing during
the latter half of the week. Widespread low stratus and areas of
fog are expected each morning through at least late-week.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High  91%     Med   79%     High  86%     High  91%
KGSP       Med   63%     Low   55%     Med   67%     High  86%
KAVL       Med   66%     Med   69%     Med   68%     High  81%
KHKY       Low   42%     Low   54%     Low   54%     Med   76%
KGMU       Med   67%     Low   40%     Med   74%     High  84%
KAND       Med   63%     Low   38%     Med   69%     Med   74%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for SCZ001>007-
     010>012-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...WJM
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...WJM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1055 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

GAZ010-NCZ048>050-052-053-059-062>065-503>510-SCZ001>007-010>012-019-
181500-
Rabun-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Haywood-Buncombe-Northern Jackson-
Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Greenwood-
1055 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 444 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms are likely today into
tonight as the remnants of Fred track across the southern
Appalachians. Cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, heavy rainfall, and
isolated tornadoes are the main impacts. Heavy rainfall will likely
lead to flash flooding, especially along the Blue Ridge Escarpment
and areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. Isolated
tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening across the North
Carolina Piedmont, South Carolina Upstate, and Northeast Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Flash Flood Watch through early Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ068-SCZ008-013-181500-
Cleveland-Cherokee-Union SC-
1055 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...TORNADO WATCH 444 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Deep tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Depression Fred
will produce periodic heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms
today into tonight. The main impacts are cloud-to-ground lightning,
isolated tornadoes, and heavy rainfall leading to the potential for
isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ035>037-056-057-069>072-082-SCZ009-014-181500-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union NC-York-Chester-
1055 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Deep tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Depression Fred
will produce periodic heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms
today into tonight. The main impacts are cloud-to-ground lightning,
isolated tornadoes, and heavy rainfall leading to the potential for
isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ033-051-058-501-502-181500-
Avery-Swain-Graham-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
1055 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms are likely today into
tonight as the remnants of Fred track across the southern
Appalachians. Cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, heavy rainfall, and
isolated tornadoes are the main impacts. Heavy rainfall will likely
lead to flash flooding, especially along the Blue Ridge Escarpment
and areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. Isolated
tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening across the North
Carolina Piedmont, South Carolina Upstate, and Northeast Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Flash Flood Watch through early Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-181500-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-
1055 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 443 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon into this evening.
Excessive rainfall from Fred's remnants could lead to flash flooding
today into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Flash Flood Watch in effect until early Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
313 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLOOD            1 ESE SKY VALLEY        34.98N 83.32W
08/17/2021                   RABUN              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER REPORTED MINOR FLOODING ON ROADWAYS SKY
            VALLEY WAY AND RIDGEPOLE DR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
317 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW TIGER              34.84N 83.44W
08/17/2021                   RABUN              GA   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER REPORTED FLASH FLOOD ON SAGA MOUNTAIN
            RD NEAR TIGER CREEK

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
325 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

SCZ003-006-007-012-172000-
Laurens SC-Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
325 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Laurens,
northeastern Greenville and western Spartanburg Counties through 400
PM EDT...

At 325 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles south of Hendersonville to 11 miles
northwest of Laurens. Movement was north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Spartanburg, Greer, Taylors, Five Forks, Woodruff, Duncan, Lyman,
Landrum, Wellford and Inman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for western North
Carolina...and Upstate South Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 8252 3516 8250 3517 8249 3518 8246
      3516 8246 3517 8244 3519 8242 3521 8239
      3518 8237 3519 8235 3519 8232 3520 8229
      3519 8212 3489 8191 3452 8208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 193DEG 29KT 3516 8246 3465 8211

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
326 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

GAZ010-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-172000-
Rabun GA-Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Greater Oconee SC-
Anderson SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
326 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Rabun,
southwestern Anderson, southwestern Pickens and Oconee Counties
through 400 PM EDT...

At 326 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 14 miles northeast of Clayton to 10 miles west
of Anderson. Movement was north at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Clemson, Seneca, Walhalla, Six Mile, Sky Valley, Salem, Lake Keowee,
Lake Jocassee, Devils Fork State Park and Keowee Toxaway State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for northeastern
Georgia...western North Carolina...and Upstate South Carolina.

&&

LAT...LON 3434 8276 3444 8286 3447 8287 3449 8290
      3495 8337 3500 8337 3500 8311 3505 8293
      3488 8281
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 172DEG 48KT 3498 8317 3447 8282

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     FLOOD            4 NNW CANTON            35.60N 82.86W
08/17/2021                   HAYWOOD            NC   PUBLIC

            LOCALIZED FLOODING, DAMAGE TO SMALL TREES

&&

MPR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 PM     TORNADO          MAULDIN                 34.79N 82.30W
08/17/2021                   GREENVILLE         SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO SEVERAL
            BUILDINGS IN AND NEAR MAULDIN.

&&

STEPHEN.WILKINSON