Mesoscale Discussion 1095

Issued

Jun 25, 2021, 3:13 PM CDT (20:13 UTC)

Expired

Jun 25, 2021, 5:15 PM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 314

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 43 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

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• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317Jun 25, 5:10 PM CDT

662 
ACUS11 KWNS 252014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252013 
MOZ000-KSZ000-252215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1095
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Areas affected...Parts of east central Kansas into west central
Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 314...

Valid 252013Z - 252215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 314
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity may continue to intensify and
consolidate near or south through southeast of the Kansas City area
between now and 6-7 PM CDT, accompanied by increasing potential for
strong surface gusts.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development remains mostly discrete in
nature, but increasing in number, focused within/just to the warm
side of the zone of stronger differential associated with a remnant
outflow boundary.  This currently extends just east of Hutchinson
into the vicinity of an outflow boundary intersection, south of the
Kansas City area, where it appears that convection may begin to more
substantively merge/consolidate through 22-00Z.  Aided by inflow of
very moist boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of
3000 J/kg, considerable further convective intensification and
upscale growth appears probable.  

Although mid-level flow may have weakened some during the past few
hours, vertical shear may be sufficient to contribute to
organization.  Regardless, given the magnitude of CAPE, latent
heating in lower/mid-levels could still contribute to the evolution
of a mesovortex, strengthening rear inflow and increasing potential
for strong surface gusts near/south through southeast of the Kansas
City area by early evening.  There may be a tendency for strongest
activity to begin to propagate southeastward along a remnant outflow
boundary toward areas near/northwest of the Lake of the Ozark
vicinity thereafter.

..Kerr.. 06/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39179376 38559249 38009265 37749392 37999496 37879592
            38299704 39219534 39179376

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.