Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1089

June 25, 202122 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 25, 2021, 1:40 AM CDT for 22 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 25, 2021, 1:40 AM CDT (06:40 UTC)
Expired
Jun 25, 2021, 4:15 AM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
20%
All 22 counties

Allen County, KS, Anderson County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Geary County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Morris County, KS, Osage County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Saline County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Woodson County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2021-06-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2766 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2021-06-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 225 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2766 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-47 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1424 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
225 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
404 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.2
Supercell composite
23.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

232 
ACUS11 KWNS 250641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250640 
KSZ000-250915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1089
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 250640Z - 250915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat will likely continue across
parts of central Kansas over the next couple of hours. The threat
may spread into eastern Kansas later tonight. The threat should be
too marginal for weather watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Topeka shows a strong
short line segment across central Kansas. The line has become
slightly more organized over the last hour as reflectively has
intensified along a wing of warm advection. This line is located on
an east-to-west outflow boundary that is located near I-70. The air
mass near the boundary is moderately unstable, with the RAP
estimating MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg. In addition, the Topeka
WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 30 kt with strong directional
shear in the lowest 1 km above ground level. This should be enough
to support the line for a few more hours as it moves eastward along
the outflow boundary into eastern Kansas. The wind-damage threat
should continue but is expected to remain too isolated to warrant
weather watch issuance.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 06/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37889507 37739742 37949839 38209863 38719843 39209774
            38999613 38779501 37889507

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 24, 7:29 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Jackson, Marshall, Nemaha and 2 more61 min
Jun 24, 8:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Edwards, Ellis, Ellsworth, Finney, Ford and 29 more2 hr
Jun 24, 8:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Doniphan, Douglas, Franklin, Jefferson, Johnson and 3 more87 min
Jun 24, 8:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtchison, Douglas, Franklin, Geary, Jackson, Jefferson and 9 more6 hr
Jun 24, 10:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Edwards, Ellis, Finney, Ford, Gove and 14 more60 min
Jun 25, 11:56 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Coffey and 17 more3 hr
Jun 25, 1:21 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Jewell, Norton, Phillips, Rawlins and 4 more114 min
Jun 25, 1:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Coffey and 32 more9 hr
Jun 25, 2:11 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Finney, Ford, Gove, Grant, Gray and 18 more2 hr
Jun 25, 2:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarber, Barton, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney and 20 more10 hr
Jun 25, 3:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Jewell and 11 more6 hr
Jun 25, 3:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Chase, Coffey, Douglas, Franklin, Johnson and 6 more2 hr
Jun 25, 5:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Jewell and 11 more66 min
Jun 25, 6:21 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Bourbon, Butler, Greenwood, Harvey, Linn and 4 more84 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.