Mesoscale Discussion 1094

Issued

Jun 25, 2021, 1:11 PM MDT (19:11 UTC)

Expired

Jun 25, 2021, 3:15 PM MDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch likely

Chance of a watch

80%

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 183 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 315Jun 25, 1:30 PM MDT
• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 316Jun 25, 2:05 PM MDT

688 
ACUS11 KWNS 251911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251911 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-252115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1094
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

Areas affected...The Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into eastern
Colorado and western Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 251911Z - 252115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop through the afternoon hours. Storms will gradually intensify
as they move east into better instability, and will pose a severe
hail/wind threat. A watch is likely to address this concern.

DISCUSSION...Recent satellite and radar trends from the
central/southern High Plains show isolated/scattered thunderstorms
ongoing across southern to southeast CO. These high-based storms
reside in an environment with deep, dry boundary layers, limited
instability, and only marginal effective bulk shear. However, they
will encounter deeper boundary-layer moisture and increasing
instability as they shift east. Deeper parcel trajectories will also
allow for strengthening effective bulk shear, boosting the overall
potential for organized severe convection with eastward extent into
the OK/TX Panhandles and far eastern CO/western KS. 

Additionally, 1-min GOES imagery reveals several areas of agitated
cumulus across east-central CO, near Dodge City, KS, and in the
central TX Panhandle. These cumulus fields are largely associated
with various outflow boundaries and/or lee trough axes, which may
act as preferential zones for additional convective initiation
through the late afternoon hours as MLCIN continues to wane.
Continued lee troughing and strengthening confluence along the
boundaries over the region will further augment the potential for
initiation later today. With nearly straight hodographs forecast
across the region, initially discrete to semi-discrete storms are
expected with an attendant severe hail/wind threat. A watch is
likely in the coming hour.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35590305 36520353 37000360 38010375 38860360 39570300
            39720177 39220028 38709969 37979942 36839949 35769996
            35270006 34610077 34390220 34610284 35590305

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.