Mesoscale Discussion 1085

Issued

Jun 24, 2021, 8:13 PM CDT (01:13 UTC)

Expired

Jun 24, 2021, 10:15 PM CDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe thunderstorm watch 310

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

078 
ACUS11 KWNS 250113
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250113 
KSZ000-COZ000-250315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1085
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0813 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

Areas affected...portions of western and central Kansas...and
vicinity

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310...

Valid 250113Z - 250315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 310
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/severe storms continue over parts of eastern
Colorado and adjacent/far western Kansas.  As risk expands/spreads
eastward with time this evening, an eventual/new WW extending into
central Kansas appears likely.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms congealing into a fairly
intense cluster over the Cheyenne/Kit Carson County vicinity in
east-central Colorado, with some initial/subtle hints of possible
mesolow development.  Farther southeast, a somewhat loosely
organized band of storms is indicated, with an eventual merging of
these two convective areas expected with time.

As the eastern Colorado/western Kansas convection evolves, eastward
advance of the storms will eventually result in severe risk
spreading across eastern portions of WW 310, into central Kansas. 
This would likely warrant eventual/new WW issuance, as a developing
low-level jet supports convective continuation.  Meanwhile though, a
small but rather vigorous cluster of updrafts has developed just
west of Pratt, KS, east of the southeastern corner of WW 310.  We
will continue to monitor evolution of this convective cluster, as
any additional increase in convection could force earlier
consideration for a new WW east of WW 310 than may otherwise have
been necessary.

..Goss.. 06/25/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   38570228 39110192 39749998 39809933 39679815 38749774
            37789795 37559898 37480122 38570228

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.