Alert archive / Texas / Tornado Watches in 2015
Tornado Watch 537
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 16, 2015, 1:00 PM CST for 27 counties in Kansas; Beaver County, Cimarron County, Texas County, Oklahoma; 41 counties in Texas. It was in force for 8 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 16, 2015, 1:00 PM CST (19:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 16, 2015, 8:42 PM CST
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 71 counties
Barber County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lane County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Rush County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Trego County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Kent County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Moore County, TX, Motley County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Wheeler County, TX, Yoakum County, TX
The radar
The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 11 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 60%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 30%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 40%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 30%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 80%
Warnings issued inside it
68 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2:32 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Cimarron, Texas | 43 min |
| Nov 16, 2:53 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DDC | Grant, Morton, Stanton, Stevens | 67 min |
| Nov 16, 3:11 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DDC | Morton, Stevens | 34 min |
| Nov 16, 3:24 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DDC | Finney, Kearny, Scott | 51 min |
| Nov 16, 3:26 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DDC | Hamilton | 32 min |
| Nov 16, 3:45 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DDC | Finney, Grant, Haskell, Kearny, Stevens | 60 min |
| Nov 16, 3:48 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DDC | Lane | 29 min |
| Nov 16, 3:52 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DDC | Grant, Haskell, Kearny, Stevens | 38 min |
| Nov 16, 3:57 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DDC | Scott | 48 min |
| Nov 16, 4:15 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Texas | 45 min |
| Nov 16, 4:24 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DDC | Finney, Grant, Haskell, Kearny | 51 min |
| Nov 16, 4:29 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DDC | Scott | 16 min |
| Nov 16, 4:35 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LUB | Swisher | 25 min |
| Nov 16, 4:50 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Armstrong, Randall | 55 min |
| Nov 16, 4:59 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DDC | Finney, Gray, Lane | 46 min |
| Nov 16, 5:00 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Texas | 32 min |
| Nov 16, 5:02 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Carson, Gray, Hutchinson, Roberts | 43 min |
| Nov 16, 5:06 PM CST | Tornado Warning | AMA | Armstrong | 24 min |
| Nov 16, 5:23 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DDC | Seward, Stevens | 37 min |
| Nov 16, 5:34 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DDC | Finney, Hodgeman, Lane, Ness | 41 min |
| Nov 16, 5:36 PM CST | Tornado Warning | AMA | Hutchinson, Roberts | 24 min |
| Nov 16, 5:42 PM CST | Tornado Warning | AMA | Armstrong | 33 min |
| Nov 16, 5:52 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DDC | Gray, Meade, Seward | 38 min |
| Nov 16, 5:54 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DDC | Lane, Scott | 35 min |
| Nov 16, 5:55 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Armstrong | 35 min |
| Nov 16, 5:56 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Ochiltree, Roberts | 64 min |
| Nov 16, 5:58 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Carson, Gray | 47 min |
| Nov 16, 5:58 PM CST | Tornado Warning | AMA | Ochiltree, Roberts | 19 min |
| Nov 16, 5:59 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DDC | Finney, Kearny, Scott | 61 min |
| Nov 16, 6:05 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DDC | Gray, Meade, Seward | 40 min |
| Nov 16, 6:06 PM CST | Tornado Warning | AMA | Carson, Gray | 24 min |
| Nov 16, 6:09 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Dallam, Deaf Smith, Hartley, Moore, Oldham, Potter and 1 more | 66 min |
| Nov 16, 6:15 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DDC | Hamilton, Kearny, Stanton | 60 min |
| Nov 16, 6:17 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DDC | Ness, Trego | 43 min |
| Nov 16, 6:19 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Potter, Randall | 41 min |
| Nov 16, 6:25 PM CST | Tornado Warning | AMA | Gray | 35 min |
| Nov 16, 6:41 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Beaver | 94 min |
| Nov 16, 6:42 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DDC | Ford, Gray | 33 min |
| Nov 16, 6:42 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DDC | Ellis, Ness, Trego | 48 min |
| Nov 16, 6:46 PM CST | Tornado Warning | AMA | Beaver | 44 min |
| Nov 16, 6:46 PM CST | Tornado Warning | AMA | Carson, Gray | 29 min |
| Nov 16, 6:50 PM CST | Tornado Warning | AMA | Gray, Hemphill, Roberts | 40 min |
| Nov 16, 6:56 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DDC | Finney, Grant, Hamilton, Kearny, Lane, Scott | 64 min |
| Nov 16, 7:03 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DDC | Scott | 27 min |
| Nov 16, 7:04 PM CST | Tornado Warning | AMA | Gray | 26 min |
| Nov 16, 7:15 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DDC | Finney, Ford, Gray, Hodgeman | 45 min |
| Nov 16, 7:16 PM CST | Tornado Warning | AMA | Carson, Hutchinson | 44 min |
| Nov 16, 7:16 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LUB | Crosby, Floyd, Hale, Lubbock | 29 min |
| Nov 16, 7:19 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DDC | Ellis, Trego | 26 min |
| Nov 16, 7:20 PM CST | Tornado Warning | AMA | Beaver | 55 min |
| Nov 16, 7:20 PM CST | Tornado Warning | AMA | Hemphill, Roberts | 40 min |
| Nov 16, 7:23 PM CST | Tornado Warning | AMA | Roberts | 52 min |
| Nov 16, 7:24 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Carson, Gray, Hansford, Hutchinson, Moore, Ochiltree and 3 more | 66 min |
| Nov 16, 7:30 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LUB | Swisher | 15 min |
| Nov 16, 7:33 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DDC | Finney, Grant, Haskell, Kearny, Meade, Seward and 2 more | 57 min |
| Nov 16, 7:37 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Armstrong, Randall | 53 min |
| Nov 16, 7:37 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Carson, Potter | 53 min |
| Nov 16, 7:51 PM CST | Tornado Warning | AMA | Hemphill, Lipscomb | 54 min |
| Nov 16, 7:54 PM CST | Tornado Warning | DDC | Hodgeman, Ness | 19 min |
| Nov 16, 7:55 PM CST | Tornado Warning | AMA | Hutchinson, Ochiltree, Roberts | 35 min |
| Nov 16, 7:57 PM CST | Tornado Warning | AMA | Carson, Potter | 21 min |
| Nov 16, 8:04 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LUB | Crosby, Garza, Lubbock, Lynn | 41 min |
| Nov 16, 8:07 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LUB | Swisher | 23 min |
| Nov 16, 8:12 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DDC | Ellis, Trego | 36 min |
| Nov 16, 8:19 PM CST | Tornado Warning | AMA | Ochiltree, Roberts | 41 min |
| Nov 16, 8:28 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Carson, Gray, Hutchinson, Ochiltree, Roberts | 47 min |
| Nov 16, 8:31 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | AMA | Armstrong | 44 min |
| Nov 16, 8:39 PM CST | Tornado Warning | AMA | Lipscomb | 36 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 12 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 867 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 33 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 88 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 158 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
804
WWUS20 KWNS 161859
SEL7
SPC WW 161859
COZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-170300-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 537
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WESTERN TEXAS INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
900 PM CST.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A FEW
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF LUBBOCK
TEXAS TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.
...MEADSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 12:44 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Finney, Ford, Grant, Gray, Hamilton, Haskell and 9 more | 3 hr |
| Nov 16, 1:58 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Logan and 8 more | 3 hr |
| Nov 16, 3:34 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Logan and 9 more | 6 hr |
| Nov 16, 3:51 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Finney, Ford, Grant, Gray, Hamilton and 11 more | 114 min |
| Nov 16, 5:20 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Logan and 8 more | 115 min |
| Nov 16, 5:56 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Comanche, Meade, Seward | 94 min |
| Nov 16, 2:31 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Austin, Bastrop, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Caldwell and 24 more | 59 min |
| Nov 16, 5:50 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrews, Borden, Crane, Dawson, Ector, Gaines and 10 more | 55 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Texas, 2015Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2015Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.