Alert archive / Texas / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 537

November 16, 201527 counties in Kansas; Beaver County, Cimarron County, Texas County, Oklahoma; 41 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 16, 2015, 1:00 PM CST for 27 counties in Kansas; Beaver County, Cimarron County, Texas County, Oklahoma; 41 counties in Texas. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 16, 2015, 1:00 PM CST (19:00 UTC)
Expired
Nov 16, 2015, 8:42 PM CST
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 71 counties

Barber County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lane County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Rush County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Trego County, KS, Beaver County, OK, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK, Armstrong County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Garza County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Kent County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Lynn County, TX, Moore County, TX, Motley County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Sherman County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Terry County, TX, Wheeler County, TX, Yoakum County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 11 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

68 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 16, 2:32 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMACimarron, Texas43 min
Nov 16, 2:53 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCGrant, Morton, Stanton, Stevens67 min
Nov 16, 3:11 PM CSTTornado WarningDDCMorton, Stevens34 min
Nov 16, 3:24 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCFinney, Kearny, Scott51 min
Nov 16, 3:26 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCHamilton32 min
Nov 16, 3:45 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCFinney, Grant, Haskell, Kearny, Stevens60 min
Nov 16, 3:48 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCLane29 min
Nov 16, 3:52 PM CSTTornado WarningDDCGrant, Haskell, Kearny, Stevens38 min
Nov 16, 3:57 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCScott48 min
Nov 16, 4:15 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMATexas45 min
Nov 16, 4:24 PM CSTTornado WarningDDCFinney, Grant, Haskell, Kearny51 min
Nov 16, 4:29 PM CSTTornado WarningDDCScott16 min
Nov 16, 4:35 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBSwisher25 min
Nov 16, 4:50 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMAArmstrong, Randall55 min
Nov 16, 4:59 PM CSTTornado WarningDDCFinney, Gray, Lane46 min
Nov 16, 5:00 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMATexas32 min
Nov 16, 5:02 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMACarson, Gray, Hutchinson, Roberts43 min
Nov 16, 5:06 PM CSTTornado WarningAMAArmstrong24 min
Nov 16, 5:23 PM CSTTornado WarningDDCSeward, Stevens37 min
Nov 16, 5:34 PM CSTTornado WarningDDCFinney, Hodgeman, Lane, Ness41 min
Nov 16, 5:36 PM CSTTornado WarningAMAHutchinson, Roberts24 min
Nov 16, 5:42 PM CSTTornado WarningAMAArmstrong33 min
Nov 16, 5:52 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threatDDCGray, Meade, Seward38 min
Nov 16, 5:54 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCLane, Scott35 min
Nov 16, 5:55 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMAArmstrong35 min
Nov 16, 5:56 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMAOchiltree, Roberts64 min
Nov 16, 5:58 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMACarson, Gray47 min
Nov 16, 5:58 PM CSTTornado WarningAMAOchiltree, Roberts19 min
Nov 16, 5:59 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCFinney, Kearny, Scott61 min
Nov 16, 6:05 PM CSTTornado Warning Considerable damage threatDDCGray, Meade, Seward40 min
Nov 16, 6:06 PM CSTTornado WarningAMACarson, Gray24 min
Nov 16, 6:09 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMADallam, Deaf Smith, Hartley, Moore, Oldham, Potter and 1 more66 min
Nov 16, 6:15 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCHamilton, Kearny, Stanton60 min
Nov 16, 6:17 PM CSTTornado Warning Considerable damage threatDDCNess, Trego43 min
Nov 16, 6:19 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMAPotter, Randall41 min
Nov 16, 6:25 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedAMAGray35 min
Nov 16, 6:41 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMABeaver94 min
Nov 16, 6:42 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threatDDCFord, Gray33 min
Nov 16, 6:42 PM CSTTornado WarningDDCEllis, Ness, Trego48 min
Nov 16, 6:46 PM CSTTornado WarningAMABeaver44 min
Nov 16, 6:46 PM CSTTornado WarningAMACarson, Gray29 min
Nov 16, 6:50 PM CSTTornado Warning Considerable damage threatAMAGray, Hemphill, Roberts40 min
Nov 16, 6:56 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCFinney, Grant, Hamilton, Kearny, Lane, Scott64 min
Nov 16, 7:03 PM CSTTornado WarningDDCScott27 min
Nov 16, 7:04 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threatAMAGray26 min
Nov 16, 7:15 PM CSTTornado Warning Considerable damage threatDDCFinney, Ford, Gray, Hodgeman45 min
Nov 16, 7:16 PM CSTTornado WarningAMACarson, Hutchinson44 min
Nov 16, 7:16 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBCrosby, Floyd, Hale, Lubbock29 min
Nov 16, 7:19 PM CSTTornado WarningDDCEllis, Trego26 min
Nov 16, 7:20 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threatAMABeaver55 min
Nov 16, 7:20 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threatAMAHemphill, Roberts40 min
Nov 16, 7:23 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threatAMARoberts52 min
Nov 16, 7:24 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMACarson, Gray, Hansford, Hutchinson, Moore, Ochiltree and 3 more66 min
Nov 16, 7:30 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBSwisher15 min
Nov 16, 7:33 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCFinney, Grant, Haskell, Kearny, Meade, Seward and 2 more57 min
Nov 16, 7:37 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMAArmstrong, Randall53 min
Nov 16, 7:37 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMACarson, Potter53 min
Nov 16, 7:51 PM CSTTornado Warning Tornado observedAMAHemphill, Lipscomb54 min
Nov 16, 7:54 PM CSTTornado WarningDDCHodgeman, Ness19 min
Nov 16, 7:55 PM CSTTornado WarningAMAHutchinson, Ochiltree, Roberts35 min
Nov 16, 7:57 PM CSTTornado WarningAMACarson, Potter21 min
Nov 16, 8:04 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBCrosby, Garza, Lubbock, Lynn41 min
Nov 16, 8:07 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBSwisher23 min
Nov 16, 8:12 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDDCEllis, Trego36 min
Nov 16, 8:19 PM CSTTornado WarningAMAOchiltree, Roberts41 min
Nov 16, 8:28 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMACarson, Gray, Hutchinson, Ochiltree, Roberts47 min
Nov 16, 8:31 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAMAArmstrong44 min
Nov 16, 8:39 PM CSTTornado WarningAMALipscomb36 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 12 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2015-11-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2015-11-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 88 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
867 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
88 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
158 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

804 
WWUS20 KWNS 161859
SEL7  
SPC WW 161859
COZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-170300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 537
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO
  SOUTHWEST KANSAS
  OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
  WESTERN TEXAS INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
  900 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING.  THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A FEW
TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF LUBBOCK
TEXAS TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY KANSAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22040.


...MEAD

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 16, 12:44 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFinney, Ford, Grant, Gray, Hamilton, Haskell and 9 more3 hr
Nov 16, 1:58 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Logan and 8 more3 hr
Nov 16, 3:34 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Logan and 9 more6 hr
Nov 16, 3:51 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Finney, Ford, Grant, Gray, Hamilton and 11 more114 min
Nov 16, 5:20 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Logan and 8 more115 min
Nov 16, 5:56 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Comanche, Meade, Seward94 min
Nov 16, 2:31 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Bastrop, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Caldwell and 24 more59 min
Nov 16, 5:50 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Borden, Crane, Dawson, Ector, Gaines and 10 more55 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Texas, 2015Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2015Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.