Severe Thunderstorm Warning 294, NWS Dodge City, KS

212 
WWUS53 KDDC 170248
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
848 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

KSC051-195-170257-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0294.000000T0000Z-151117T0315Z/
TREGO KS-ELLIS KS-
848 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR TREGO AND NORTHWESTERN ELLIS
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CST FOR WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3913 9949 3892 9937 3873 10015 3913 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 243DEG 41KT 3913 9967 

$$

FINCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
307 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

Thunderstorms are likely tonight as short range models indicate
a strong closed off upper level low shifting east out of the
Four Corners Region into the Central/Southern Rockies and the
Western High Plains. As the system approaches, a developing
surface low across eastern Colorado and extreme western Kansas
will deepen while beginning to shift further east across western
Kansas. Meanwhile, moisture will continue to advect northward
into central and portions of western Kansas ahead of a developing
dryline with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s(F) to near
60F. The dryline will sharpen as it begins to migrate eastward in
conjunction with the surface low, providing an axis of increased
convergence. Meanwhile, the flow aloft will continue to intensify
significantly with a +100kt jet lifting northeast into the
Central Plains with a left exit region setting up across central
Kansas. As a result, showers and thunderstorms will develop late
this afternoon, generally along and ahead of the dryline. Storms
are then projected to spread northeast through this evening. The
intensity of the flow aloft combined with MUCAPE values exceeding
1000 J/KG in an axis ahead of the dryline may increase the
potential for severe storms. The primary threat will be large
hail and damaging winds. However, considering the expected
strength of the deep layer shear, tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Precip chances pick back up early Tuesday as the advancing surface
low pushes further east out of western Kansas. According to
all short range models, precip development will be possible
within a band of post-frontal H7 frontogenesis as the surface low
departs to the east. The better chance for precip remains to be
across west central Kansas with precip type being primarily snow
according to NAM model soundings. Although snow amounts are
expected to be fairly low, strong northwest winds will develop
behind the front creating blowing snow conditions where any
snowfall occurs, possibly restricting visbilities. Drier conditions
are then expected Wednesday through the end of the week as a
westerly flow aloft develops behind the departing upper level
trough.

Somewhat cooler temperatures are likely tonight as a cold
front begins to push into extreme western Kansas early Tuesday
morning. Look for lows down into the 30s(F) across west central
Kansas with the lower to mid 50s(F) possible in south central
Kansas well ahead of the cold front. Colder temperatures are
likely for highs Tuesday as the aforementioned cold front pushes
through southwest and central Kansas. Temperatures may fail to
climb out of the 30s(F) in west central Kansas with highs reaching
up into the 40s(F) and 50s(F) toward south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

Medium range models indicate a strong upper level trough of low
pressure lifting northeast across the Central Plains into the Great
Lakes Region Wednesday giving way to a more westerly flow aloft
across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a secondary upper level
shortwave will dig southeast across the Northern Plains sending yet
another frontal boundary southeastward through western Kansas.
Although the flow aloft will be slowly intensifying, much drier
air filtering down into the high plains will hinder any precip
development across western Kansas through the end of the week.
Fairly seasonable temperatures are expected for highs Wednesday as
a west-northwesterly downslope flow sets up behind the departing
cold front from the day prior. This will allow highs to bounce
back up into the 50s(F) to near 60F Wednesday afternoon. Highs
will drop back down once again Thursday in wake of another cold
front pushing through late Wednesday. Expect highs only up into
the 40s(F) in west central Kansas to the lower/mid 50s(F) in south
central Kansas. The seasonal temperatures are expected to prevail
through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

Low level stratus will persist across central Kansas through
this evening resulting in potential periodic MVFR cigs to KHYS.
Meanwhile, thunderstorms will develop across the panhandles of
Texas and Oklahoma late this afternoon with storms spreading
northeast into portions of southwest and central Kansas into
this evening...potentially affecting all TAF sites. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are expected during the overnight hours. Gusty
south winds around 20 to 35kt will persist across western Kansas
through late this afternoon as a strong lee side trough of low
pressure remains anchored across extreme eastern Colorado. Winds
will then subside and become more variable this evening as the
surface trough develops into a low pressure center and begins to
edge eastward across western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  49  31  59 /  80  60  40   0
GCK  38  40  31  59 /  70  70  40   0
EHA  37  38  33  60 /  50  70  30   0
LBL  40  45  34  61 /  70  60  30   0
HYS  50  50  32  56 /  70  60  50   0
P28  50  55  35  62 /  80  30  30   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
423 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-171030-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
423 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015 /323 AM MST MON NOV 16 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE COLORADO LINE IN
THE MID AFTERNOON, SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND IS THE GREATEST THREAT WITH ANY
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 ON TUESDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
COMPOUND THE IMPACTS OF ANY SNOW THAT MAY FALL.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  TUESDAY...
  ELEVATED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
  ELEVATED SNOW RISK.

  WEDNESDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

  THURSDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

  FRIDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

  SATURDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

  SUNDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

33

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
705 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TORNADO          3 NNE ENSIGN            37.70N 100.21W
11/16/2015                   FORD               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

NWS DODGE CITY KS
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
710 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 S MONTEZUMA           37.49N 100.44W
11/16/2015                   GRAY               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTING POWER POLES SNAPPED OFF AND
            POWER LINES ACROSS THE ROAD AT HH ROAD BETWEEN ROAD 15
            AND 16.

&&

RBURG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
727 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     TORNADO          1 WSW HOWELL            37.77N 100.20W
11/16/2015                   FORD               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A RESIDENCE WAS DAMAGED, AND POWER LINES ARE
            DOWN.

&&

NWS DODGE CITY KS
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
740 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE MONTEZUMA         37.61N 100.39W
11/16/2015                   GRAY               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTED POWER LINES DOWN AT 19 ROAD AND HIGHWAY 56.

&&

RBURG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
747 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             ULYSSES                 37.58N 101.36W
11/16/2015  E0.75 INCH       GRANT              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

RBURG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
805 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     TORNADO          11 ESE KALVESTA         37.98N 100.09W
11/16/2015                   HODGEMAN           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT AND A FIRE UNIT REPORTED TWO BRIEF ROPE
            TORNADOES.

&&

RBURG