Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Amarillo, TX

November 16, 2015Armstrong County, Texas

NWS Amarillo, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Nov 16, 2015, 8:31 PM CST for Armstrong County, Texas. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Nov 16, 2015, 8:31 PM CST (02:31 UTC)
Expired: Nov 16, 2015, 9:15 PM CST
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Amarillo, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 0.88 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

County Armstrong County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Nov 16, 1:00 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	8 hr
Nov 16, 8:17 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 43 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 345 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -63 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1692 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 74 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 276 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 280 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 3.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Nov 16, 5:44 PM CST, 2 hours 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 16, 5:44 PM CST, 2 hours 47 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
544 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE MID EVENING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES TUESDAY MORNING
WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS. CLOUDS WILL LOWER BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AS A LOW APPROACHES THE AREA...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REACHED THE
70S AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE PANHANDLES TO
BE PRIMED FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.
SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CAPE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1600J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
IS LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. HIRES MODELS ARE
INDICATING THESE DISCRETE CELLS WILL TURN INTO A QLCS LATE THIS
EVENING AND THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE PANHANDLES BY
MIDNIGHT IF IT FOLLOWS THE TEXAS TECH WRF. IF IT FOLLOWS THE
HRRR...THE LINE WILL FORM EAST OF THE AREA.

ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL SEE WRAP AROUND PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS PART OF THE EVENT NOW
AND ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH TOTALS UP TO ONE HALF
INCH...MOSTLY IN THE NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TUESDAY TO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE SO VISIBILITIES MAY
DROP WHEN SNOW IS FALLING. THESE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY LOWER THAN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BUT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF
VISIBILITY DROPS LOW ENOUGH.

AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND PRECIP MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY ARE LOOKING TO BE DRY. TEMPS
SHOULD BE AROUND SEASONAL VALUES EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY WHEN A DRY COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COOLS TEMPS FOR THE DAY BUT THE RETURN OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING TEMPS BACK UP BY SUNDAY.

BEAT

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

15/10

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 16, 2:39 PM CST, 5 hours 52 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
239 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-171200-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
239 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE AREA WIDE...THE GREATEST THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM CLAUDE TO SPEARMAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AN INCH OR LESS COULD FALL.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS WILL LIKELY
BE ACTIVATED THROUGH THE EVENING.

BEAT

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 16, 8:04 PM CST, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
804 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             2 E CANYON              34.98N 101.89W
11/16/2015  E1.00 INCH       RANDALL            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500777

FENNER

Local storm report, Nov 16, 8:05 PM CST, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
805 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SSW AMARILLO          35.16N 101.84W
11/16/2015  E60 MPH          RANDALL            TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500778

LORENZEN

Local storm report, Nov 16, 8:06 PM CST, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
806 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             AMARILLO                35.20N 101.82W
11/16/2015  E1.00 INCH       POTTER             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500779

LG

Local storm report, Nov 16, 8:09 PM CST, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
809 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     HAIL             AMARILLO                35.20N 101.82W
11/16/2015  E1.00 INCH       POTTER             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL ACROSS DOWNTOWN
            AMARILLO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500780

LORENZEN

Local storm report, Nov 16, 8:10 PM CST, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
810 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             5 SSW AMARILLO          35.14N 101.85W
11/16/2015  E1.00 INCH       RANDALL            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            HAIL AT 58TH AND WASHINGTON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500781

LG

Local storm report, Nov 16, 8:26 PM CST, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
826 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             6 SSE BORGER            35.58N 101.36W
11/16/2015  E1.00 INCH       CARSON             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

0820 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SSE BORGER            35.58N 101.36W
11/16/2015  M65 MPH          CARSON             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1500782
EVENT NUMBER AMA1500783

LORENZEN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Amarillo, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 16, 6:06 PM CST	Tornado Warning	AMA	Carson, Gray	24 min
Nov 16, 6:09 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Dallam, Deaf Smith, Hartley, Moore, Oldham, Potter and 1 more	66 min
Nov 16, 6:19 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Potter, Randall	41 min
Nov 16, 6:25 PM CST	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	AMA	Gray	35 min
Nov 16, 6:41 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Lipscomb, Ochiltree	94 min
Nov 16, 6:46 PM CST	Tornado Warning	AMA	Lipscomb, Ochiltree	44 min
Nov 16, 6:46 PM CST	Tornado Warning	AMA	Carson, Gray	29 min
Nov 16, 6:50 PM CST	Tornado Warning Considerable damage threat	AMA	Gray, Hemphill, Roberts	40 min
Nov 16, 7:01 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	AMA	Hansford	44 min
Nov 16, 7:04 PM CST	Tornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threat	AMA	Gray	26 min
Nov 16, 7:16 PM CST	Tornado Warning	AMA	Carson, Hutchinson	44 min
Nov 16, 7:20 PM CST	Tornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threat	AMA	Hemphill, Roberts	40 min
Nov 16, 7:23 PM CST	Tornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threat	AMA	Roberts	52 min
Nov 16, 7:24 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Carson, Gray, Hansford, Hutchinson, Moore, Ochiltree and 3 more	66 min
Nov 16, 7:37 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Armstrong, Randall	53 min
Nov 16, 7:37 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Carson, Potter	53 min
Nov 16, 7:51 PM CST	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	AMA	Hemphill, Lipscomb	54 min
Nov 16, 7:55 PM CST	Tornado Warning	AMA	Hutchinson, Ochiltree, Roberts	35 min
Nov 16, 7:57 PM CST	Tornado Warning	AMA	Carson, Potter	21 min
Nov 16, 8:19 PM CST	Tornado Warning	AMA	Ochiltree, Roberts	41 min
Nov 16, 8:28 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Carson, Gray, Hutchinson, Ochiltree, Roberts	47 min
Nov 16, 8:39 PM CST	Tornado Warning	AMA	Lipscomb	36 min
Nov 16, 8:52 PM CST	Tornado Warning	AMA	Lipscomb, Ochiltree	42 min
Nov 16, 8:57 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Carson, Gray	33 min
Nov 16, 9:03 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Collingsworth, Wheeler	47 min
Nov 16, 9:18 PM CST	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	AMA	Lipscomb	42 min
Nov 16, 9:22 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	AMA	Gray	18 min
Nov 17, 5:16 AM CST	Wind Advisory	AMA	Armstrong, Carson, Collingsworth, Deaf Smith, Donley, Gray and 7 more	13 hr
Nov 17, 5:33 AM CST	Winter Weather Advisory	AMA	Dallam, Hansford, Hartley, Sherman	17 hr
Nov 16, 7:20 PM CST	Tornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threat	AMA	Beaver	55 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.